Risk Advisory


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Risk Advisory

  1. 1. Risk advisory for BangladeshA risk advisory after police used tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse a large demonstration south of Dhaka.The majority of the estimated 20,000 protestors are made up of agricultural workers who are angry at theprospect of losing their land and being displaced by the construction of a new airport. Tensions have been highfor more than a year over the issue of the airport’s construction but erupted today when the governmentapproved plans for the facility. Reports indicate that one policeman was killed and around 50 have been injuredwhile a police station has also been set on fire. Protesters are unlikely to shift their ire towards foreigners in thecountry and the risk of damage to assets not associated with the construction of the airport remains low. Thatsaid, personnel should avoid the Srinagar area, which lies 25 miles south of the central Dhaka, until the situationcalms.Risk advisory for Moscow City (Russia)Moscow CityIngushetiaDagestanChechnyaA risk advisory for Moscow ahead of an unsanctioned opposition rally due to take place in Triumfulnaya Squarelater today. Opposition party Other Russia plan to stage their protest alongside a sanctioned demonstration byhuman rights activists who meet on 31st of every month to protest Article 31 of the constitution which guaranteesfreedom of assembly. The last rally of this type resulted in the arrest of over 70 people, including oppositionpoliticians who were subsequently jailed. Personnel are advised to avoid the demonstration as the participationof unsanctioned groups could result in similar action by the police and incidences of violence.Risk advisory for EgyptCairoA risk advisory for Egypt as protests continue in urban areas around the country. The curfew hours have nowbeen altered and movements outside are not permitted between 1500 and 0800, although many protesters arechoosing to ignore the regulations. AKEs security advice on the country has not changed. While in many casesthe best advice at present is to stay indoors and monitor local news sources for information, personnel shouldalso be prepared to leave in the event that their personal safety is threatened by criminality or arson. Have morethan one exit route in place and be prepared to leave at short notice. Designate alternative safe havens tomuster at in the event that you have to make a quick exit, although with ongoing protests, route closures andaltered curfew times it will remain preferable to lock down and stay put (if safe) rather than risk going outside.Companies are advised to stay in close contact with employeesElevated the risk rating for Cairo (Egypt) 27 from the 26CairoRaised the risk rating for Cairo following an increase in violence and looting in the city. Thugs have targetedretail outlets, public amenities and residential areas, with reports that individuals have been assaulted duringthefts. Current areas of particular concern include the downtown, Corniche, Midan Tahrir and Midan Ramsesareas, although violent activity is being reported in a much wider area and personnel should anticipate unrestand criminality in all parts of the city. There are unconfirmed reports that some of the looters are members of thepolice forces, potentially attempting to discredit the protest movement. This could raise the possibility of clashesbetween police and military forces, which could in turn lead to a considerable worsening of the securityenvironment. While in many cases the best advice at present is to stay indoors and monitor local news sourcesfor information, personnel should also be prepared to leave in the event that their personal security is threatenedby criminality or arson. Have more than one exit route in place and be prepared to leave at short notice.Designate alternative safe havens to muster at in the event that you have to make a quick exit, although giventhat a curfew is now in place it will remain preferable to lock down and stay put (if safe) rather than risk goingoutside.Elevated the risk rating for Egypt 26 from the 20thCairo
  2. 2. Raised the risk rating for Egypt following an escalation in violence, particularly in Cairo. Looting is being reportedwhile a curfew has been imposed, limiting travel between the hours of 1800 and 0700. Personnel are advised tostay indoors and monitor the situation closely, although note that there is an extremely poor reporting climateand news remains difficult to verify. Companies are advised to stay in close contact with employees in thecountry, although note that internet and mobile coverage remains sporadic. Continue to review securitymeasures and be prepared to leave your current area of activity at short notice in the event that you arethreatened with the risk of looting and violence. Have contingency plans in place and designate alternative safehavens to gather in the event that your current location becomes too hazardous. While the tourism sector islikely to be badly affected, not least by flight cancellations on Cairo routes and widely broadcast images ofviolence in Egyptian streets, the resorts on the Red Sea coast are being much less affected than Cairo.Personnel in and around resorts are advised to monitor the situation closely, and have contingency plans inplace but travel to airports for an evacuation is not currently advisable. Given the importance of Egypt in Arabmedia, personnel in other parts of the Middle East and North Africa should prepare for other demonstrationssympathetic to the Egyptian protests. Large gatherings throughout the region should be avoided.Risk advisory for JordanA risk advisory for Jordan after thousands of anti-government demonstrators took to the streets to protest againstrising inflation and unemployment whilst calling for Prime Minister Samir Rifai to step down from his position.Around 3,000 protestors turned out in the capital Amman, while another 2,500 people also turned out in six othercities in the country. Although the demonstrations have been mostly peaceful, there is a risk that futuredemonstrations may result in violence, with a harsh response from security forces. Personnel are advised toavoid large crowds of demonstrators, who will mostly gather in city centre areas. Those covering the protestsshould maintain a safe distance in case the situation deteriorates. Note that similar protests are also taking placein other parts of the Arab world at present, with many having been inspired by recent events in Tunisia andEgypt. Personnel throughout the region are therefore advised to monitor local news sources and avoid largegatherings in city centres.Risk advisory for Kabul (Afghanistan)West (Faryab, Badghis, Ghor, Herat, Farah)South (Nimroz, Helmand, Kandahar, Zabul, Uruzgan)North (Badaghshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Baghlan, Samangan, Balkh, Sari Pul,KabulCentral (Ghazni, Logar, Wardak, Bamyan, Parwan, Kapisa, Panjsher, Day KuEast (Nangarhar, Laghman, Kunar, Nuristan)South East (Paktya, Khost, Paktika)A risk advisory for Kabul following a single-person suicide attack on a supermarket in Wazir Akbar Khan, Kabul.AKE can confirm that two people were killed but press reports indicate that as many as eight people includingthree female foreigners died in the attack along while three male employees were injured in the Finestsupermarket. It is far too early to indicate whether this is a new and distinct trend targeting foreigners in thecapital, particularly coming after an apparent concentration of attacks on Afghan interests such as the recentattack on an NDS bus in the southwest of the city. What can be said with certainty is that there are several sitesaround Kabul that are well-known as places where foreigners gather, sometimes due to the fact that these arethe only place that foreigners are only allow to go to due to security concerns. While some of these arereasonable well fortified this is no guarantee of protection against coordinated attacks. These sites includecertain restaurants and shopping areas. Whether a single individual was the intended target of the attack, whichwas carried out in an area densely populated by foreigners and affluent Afghans alike. Taliban have claimed asenior Xe (Blackwater) staffer was the target; whether he was or not is just rumour at this stage. The incidenthas so far not been followed by a secondary attack, although in the event of future attacks personnel should beparticularly vigilant of follow-up attacks.Risk advisory for Libreville (Gabon)LibrevillePort Gentil
  3. 3. A risk advisory after security forces fired tear gas at hundreds of demonstrators massed outside the UN buildingin Libreville. The protestors called for Andrew Mba Obame to be recognised as the legitimate leader of thecountry after what they perceive as a rigged election by incumbent Ali Bongo Odimba in 2009. Obame’ssupporters have been emboldened by events in other parts of the world, namely Tunisia and the Ivory Coast.The heady mix of political struggle and direct action there was capitalised in a recent Obame speech whichcontributed to this outbreak of violence in the normally stable state. Personnel should avoid the area around theUN facility for the next few days and in general should stay away from political protests. It is too early to saywhether the situation will escalate further, but personnel should continue to monitor developments closely.Elevated the risk rating for Egypt 20CairoA risk rating for Egypt ahead of protests expected in urban areas after Friday prayers (scheduled to end around1400 local time). The demonstrations have been banned by the authorities and there is a heavy securitypresence on the streets and around key assets countrywide. Demonstrations could emerge anywhere although,city centres (especially Midan Tahrir in Cairo) and areas in proximity to local mosques are likely to see intensifiedprotests. The shipping sector is reported to be working as normal. There is a strong army presence around majorinstallations along the Suez canal and vessel activity is not currently being disrupted. The tourism sector is likelyto be very badly affected as visitor confidence in the security environment falls. Investors are also likely to behighly concerned by events. Personnel are advised to avoid large gatherings, stay indoors and monitor localnews for further information. There may be a risk of stray gunfire if the security forces resort to using excessiveforce to contain unrest so it is advisable to stay under hard cover and away from windows. Given the possibleuse of tear gas windows should also be kept shut. Contingency plans should be readied in case you need toleave your area of operations at short notice.Risk advisory for YemenSaadah ProvinceA risk advisory for Yemen amid pro- and anti-government protests in San’a’. Thousands of demonstrators,inspired by recent events in Tunisia are calling for the departure of President Saleh although large groups arealso demonstrating in support of his leadership - something which is being under-reported in the press. The mainarea of protest has been the university campus although gatherings have been reported elsewhere in the city. Atpresent, the demonstrations have been largely peaceful but personnel are advised to avoid large gatherings,mainly because of the risk of poor crowd control and arrests. Government troops are less likely to fire on crowdsin the capital than they are in former south Yemen, but it will remain a possibility if protests continue. Otherwise,the risk rating for the country remains relatively high so personnel should already be carrying out sufficient riskmitigation practices when operating in the city.Elevated the risk rating for Egypt 18CairoA risk rating for Egypt following continued protests in the capital Cairo and other major cities. Although theauthorities have banned anyone from protesting, demonstrations are likely to continue in the short term, andmay occur in a number of major cities throughout the country. Protests have so far occurred in Alexandria, Suez,Mansoura, Aswan Isma’aliya, Asuit and Tanta, however the most significant demonstrations have occurred inCairo. Personnel are advised to avoid demonstrations which although concentrated in central areas of the cities,have the potential to spring up in separate locations. In Cairo, personnel are advised to avoid Midan Tahrir andareas in proximity to downtown. Personnel should also monitor local and international news sources in case thesituation should deteriorate. Those covering the demonstrations should maintain a safe distance to avoid beingcaught up in police response, which has at times been violent.