Identifying and Tracking Trends in Instructional Design and Technology
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AECT 2015 International Convention, Indianapolis, Indiana – November 5, 2015
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Identifying and Tracking Trends in Instructional Design and Technology
- 1. 1 Identifying and Tracking Trends in Instructional Design and Technology Robert A. Reiser Fabrizio Fornara Weinan Zhao
- 2. Identifying and Tracking Trends in Instructional Design and Technology Primary Question: What trends (methods and technologies) are currently being widely discussed and/or implemented by professionals in the IDT field? 2 Focus of Today’s Presentation: The methods we have used to answer this question
- 3. How We Identified Sources of Useful Information - Started with familiar sources - Consulted with an expert reference librarian - Conducted Google search: ◦ Trend name + survey/trends/report + data 3
- 4. Sources We Have Identified Higher education K-12 Business and industry 4
- 5. Sources We Have Identified (cont.) Higher education K-12 Business and industry • The Chronicle of Higher Education • Inside Higher Ed • EDUCAUSE (ECAR) • Babson Research Group • Higher Education Research Institute • Education Week • Horizon Report • Faculty Focus • eLearningLearning.com • Center for Digital Education • ERIC (Proquest) • Pew Research • Project Tomorrow - Speak Up • Education Week • Edudemic • Babson Research Group • Horizon Report • Educational count • eLearningLearning.com • Center for Digital Education • The Joan Ganz Cooney Center • ERIC (Proquest) • Pew Research • Training and Development • Training Magazine • Performance Improvement / Performance Improvement Quarterly • ATD • eLearning GUILD • Mashable • eLearningLearning.com • Business source complete • Pew Research 5
- 6. How We Track Updates from the Sources Newsletters RSS Feed 6
- 7. How We Track Updates from the Sources (cont.) Social Media 7
- 8. How We Collect and Track Data (cont.) Annual Reports Other Reports 8
- 9. List of Trends Communities of practice Educational games Global learning Informal learning Knowledge management Learning sciences Mobile learning Online learning Performance improvement Performance support Problem-based learning Social media Flipped learning Learning analytics MOOCs Open educational resources Virtual/Augmented reality Workforce/Talent development 9
- 10. Which Kinds of Data We Are Looking for Source: eLearning Guild, Learning and Performance Ecosystems: Current State and Challenges, 2015, n = 441 Data on: • Adoption • Benefits • Issues Types of Social Media Employed 10
- 11. Which Kinds of Data We Are Looking for (cont.) Importance of using a mobile device for various student-related activities Data on: • Adoption • Benefits • Issues Source: EDUCAUSE, ECAR Study of Undergraduate Students and Information Technology, 2014 N=75,306 students 11
- 12. Which Kinds of Data We Are Looking for (cont.) Source: Pearson & Babson, Social Media for Teaching and Learning, 2013 Data on: • Adoption • Benefits • Issues 12
- 13. How We Prioritize the Data Time: • The more recent, the better • Data across time is preferred Source: Babson Group, Grade Change: Tracking online education in the United States, 2015, n = ~2,800 13
- 14. How We Prioritize the Data (cont.) Source: EDUCAUSE, ECAR Study of Undergraduate Students and Information Technology, 2014 N=75,306 students Type: • Actual usage data • Data about opinions and perceptions • Statement without data support 14
- 15. How We Prioritize the Data (cont.) Source: eLearning Guild, Learning and Performance Ecosystems: Current State and Challenges, 2015, n = 441 Type: • Actual usage data • Data about opinions and perceptions • Statement without data support Performance support is strongly sponsored within my organization 15
- 16. How We Prioritize the Data (cont.) Type: • Actual usage data • Data about opinions and perceptions • Statement without data support MOOCs are not dead, but MOOC mania has certainly abated. […] Predictions made in 2012 that MOOCs would totally disrupt the existing higher education model were certainly exaggerated. […] For the most part, however, MOOCs today have not evolved significantly in approach beyond those available in 2012. Source: Inside Higher Ed, The Future of MOOCs, October 29, 2014 16
- 17. How We Transform the Data (cont.) • Modify figures to emphasize key data • Visualize data originally in text form • Summarize key findings from a single report • Synthesize data from multiple reports • Gather missing information 17
- 18. 18
- 19. How effective have games been in improving your students’ learning? 19
- 20. How We Transform the Data (cont.) Source: University of Phoenix, College of Education Survey, 2013, n~1000 • Modify figures to emphasize key data • Visualize data originally in text form • Summarize key findings from a single report • Synthesize data from multiple reports • Gather missing information 20
- 21. How We Transform the Data (cont.) • Modify figures to emphasize key data • Visualize data originally in text form • Summarize key findings from a single report • Synthesize data from multiple reports • Gather missing information What are the benefits and challenges associated with mobile learning? Benefits: - Increases student engagement in learning (77%) - Provides access to online textbooks (68%) Challenges: - Potential for distraction (76%) - Equity issues: not all students have a mobile device (68%) Source: Project Tomorrow, Speak Up 2015 National Findings, 2015, n~42,000 21
- 22. How We Transform the Data (cont.) • Modify figures to emphasize key data • Visualize data originally in text form • Summarize key findings from a single report • Synthesize data from multiple reports • Gather missing information Online Learning There has been a growing use of online learning in many sectors of the education and training world; this growth is likely to continue for quite a while. • The percentage of online training has increased among leading training organizations. • The percentage of students taking online courses has greatly increased among middle school and high school students. • The percentage of students taking online courses has greatly increased among colleges and universities. Sources: ATD, 2012; Blackboard, 2011; Babson Group, 2013 22
- 23. How We Transform the Data (cont.) • Modify figures to emphasize key data • Visualize data originally in text form • Summarize key findings from a single report • Synthesize data from multiple reports • Gather missing information The description of the sample is not included in the report, but we obtained it by asking the authors through email: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- We received nearly 100 survey responses. • Approximately 19 percent represent organizations with 101-1000 employees. • Approximately 15 percent represent organizations with 1001-5000 employees. • Approximately 14 percent represent organizations with 5001-10000 employees. • … 23
- 24. Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) • What is the extent of their use in various educational settings? 24
- 25. MOOCs in Business and Industry • Does your organization use MOOCs as part of your learning and development program? 25 Source: ATD, MOOCs. Expanding the Scope of Organizational Learning, 2014, n = 525
- 26. MOOCs in Higher Education Source: Babson, Grade Level: Tracking Online Education in the United States, 2015, n = ~ 2800 Percentage of universities offering / planning to offer MOOCS 26
- 27. MOOCs in Higher Education (cont.) Source: Babson, Grade Level: Tracking Online Education in the United States, 2015, n = ~ 2800 Percentage of universities offering / planning to offer MOOCS 27
- 28. MOOCs in Higher Education (cont.) Source: Babson, Grade Level: Tracking Online Education in the United States, 2015, n = ~ 2800 Percentage of universities not planning to offer MOOCs 28
- 29. MOOCs in Higher Education (cont.) Source: Babson, Grade Level: Tracking Online Education in the United States, 2015, n = ~ 2800 Percentage of universities indicating that MOOCS are not a sustainable method for offering courses 29
- 30. Major Trends We Are Currently Tracking • Performance Improvement • Performance Support • Online Learning • Social Media • Educational Games • Mobile Learning • Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) • Learning Analytics • Open Educational Resources • Flipped Classroom • Informal Learning 30
- 31. Thank You! Robert A. Reiser: rreiser@fsu.edu Fabrizio Fornara: ff11@my.fsu.edu Weinan Zhao: wz11@my.fsu.edu 31
Editor's Notes
- The first thing we did in order to answer our questions of interest was to identify appropriate sources of information, particularly sources that provided us with data about the extent to which a trend is being used.. We started with some sources we were already familiar with, such as The Chronicle of Higher Education, The Education Week, The Training Magazine, and, of course, the Horizon Report. We also consulted with an expert reference librarian who helped us to identify some very useful sources, as well as the way to search for more sources. So based on her suggestions, we conducted google searches with keywords like this: name of a trend + survey or trends or report + data. So during the google searches, if some interesting reports appeared in the search results, we would check the author or publisher of the reports to see if it is a good source for future data collection. If so we included it in our list.
- The first thing we did in order to answer our questions of interest was to identify appropriate sources of information, particularly sources that provided us with data about the extent to which a trend is being used.. We started with some sources we were already familiar with, such as The Chronicle of Higher Education, The Education Week, The Training Magazine, and, of course, the Horizon Report. We also consulted with an expert reference librarian who helped us to identify some very useful sources, as well as the way to search for more sources. So based on her suggestions, we conducted google searches with keywords like this: name of a trend + survey or trends or report + data. So during the google searches, if some interesting reports appeared in the search results, we would check the author or publisher of the reports to see if it is a good source for future data collection. If so we included it in our list.
- These are just a few of the many sources we have identified. We categorized the sources into three categories: Higher education, K-12, and Business and industry.
- Here is the complete list of sources we have identified. You can check out these sources afterwards if you are interested.
- Most of the sources of information we identified were publications that appeared weekly or monthly. In order to keep up with the new information these sources presented each week or month, we used a variety of techniques. For example, we subscribed to training weekly’s newsletter, and when we received their weekly posting, if we saw something relevant in their newsletter, we’d go to their website to find out the details. Another way we subscribed to the sources was through RSS Feeds. Similar to a newsletter, if some information in the RSS Feed is of our interest, we would click the link in it to check the detailed information on its website. There are a lot of RSS readers out there. Among them Feedly is a good option. As you can see, these are some of the RSS feeds we have subscribed through Feedly. we have Mashable, ATD, and some others. It helped a lot in terms to put the information in an organized way.
- We also used social media, such as twitter, LinkedIn to track data sources.
- However, some of the sources of information we identified, could not be subscribed to, or less efficient to subscribe to. In that case we would check on their websites directly on a regular basis to see if something relevant has come up.
- As a result of looking at all of these sources on a regular basis, at this point we have identified 18 trends we have decided to keep track of. Those listed in black were ones we decided to track before the project began. Those listed in red were, for the most part, ones we had been considering and which we definitely decided to track after finding a number of references discussing them. Now, that we have identified the trends we are tracking, my colleague, Fabrizio Fornara, will discuss the types of data we have been collecting regarding each of these trends.
- Once we have identified a source that might have some useful information about a trend, we start to carefully examine it. We are especially interested in sources that provide ADOPTION data. In other words, data regarding the extent to which a particular Trend, a particular method or technology, has been adopted. Here is an example: We are interested in the types of social media employed in business and industry. By analyzing the survey Learning and Performance Ecosystems: Current State and Challenges by the eLearning Guild group, we found current data on this topic. This chart shows that social networking applications are now among the most used social media tools in business and industry, followed by communities of practice and blogs. We save this information and compare it with other sources from this year and the previous years to monitor how this trends evolves.
- We are also interested in data that focuses on the perceived benefits of adopting a particular method or technology. For example, this chart from an EDUCAUSE Study of Undergraduate Students provided us with useful information regarding students’ perceptions of the benefits of using mobile devices for student-related activities. For instance, the top line of the chart indicates that the learning benefit of mobile devices that largest number of students identify is that such devices enable them to communicate with other students about class-related matters outside class sessions.
- Of course, several issues may hinder the adoption of certain tools or slow down the growth of a trend. Understanding these issues help us to better understand the evolution of a trend. For example, we know that there are certain barriers to higher education faculty use of Social Media. This chart from the Social Media for Teaching and Learning survey by Pearson and the Babson Survey Research Group (2013) shows that almost three professors out of four have concerns about the integrity of student submissions and that three out of five have concerns about their privacy and students’ privacy.
- Our research is ongoing. By constantly monitoring the sources that Weinan listed before, we are always trying to keep up to date on the trends in our field. However, we are often overwhelmed by information. In order to identify and analyze relevant data, we prioritize information according to two factors: Time and type of data. The more recent the data, the better. We are usually excited to find a new report, as it gives us a better picture of the trends that we are analyzing. We are especially in comparing data across time. This data gives us a clear idea on the evolution of a trend. For example, from this chart from the Grade Level Babson survey (2015) we can see that, in the last 12 years, increasingly more colleges and universities consider online education critical to their long-term strategy. When we cannot find data across time for a specific trend, we are usually able to observe its evolution by ourselves by summarizing and analyzing key findings from multiple reports across time.
- We also prioritize information according to its type. We were explaining before that we are looking for data on adoption, benefits, and issues of a certain tool or strategy. While looking for these three kinds of data, our first choice is actual usage data. From this chart, for example, we can see that the use of tablets and smartphones for academics has increased at quite a similar rate in the last three years. Most of the findings we report focus on this type of usage data.
- Another important source of information is data about stakeholders’ opinions and perceptions. This data helps us to understand what is behind the actual usage data, what stakeholders’ actually think about a certain tool or strategy. For example, (NOTE: the following words you wrote don’t match what is depicted on this slide, let’s discuss this) we have seen a dramatic increase in the adoption of tablets in K-12. However, we would not have a clear idea of this trend if we were not also monitoring principals’, teachers’, parents’, and students’ reactions to this phenomenon – which are usually not positive.
- Even if they are not our first choice, we also pay attention to statements without data support. We find these statements usually in opinion articles in sources like The Chronicle of Higher Education, Inside Higher Ed, or other sources such as the New York Times and other newspapers, magazines, and websites. These statements may not be included in our results but they are useful to better understand the evolution of a trend. Actually, sometime they can even direct our attention to a certain phenomenon or topic and encourage us to look for more information (possibly with data support).
- Following the same principle, we modify figures to emphasize specific data. In this example, we selected four areas where games have been more effective in improving students’ learning and we created a new figure. (Let’s discuss this; I don’t want the audience to get the wrong impression; I think using another example would be better)
- ?
- Sometimes, we need to transform the data that we collected, organized, and analyzed in order to meet our research goals. For example, we may be interested only on a specific tool in a list of tools used for training, or we want to highlight certain information and discard other. Our research serves two different purposes: It informs the work behind each edition of Dr. Reiser and Dr. Dempsey’s Trends and Issues book, as well as our conference and symposium presentations. While presenting in front of an audience, we like to show a lot of charts to depict the data we have uncovered. If we only have data in text form, we create a chart such as the one on this slide, where we include only the most relevant information.
- When we analyze a report, we may be more interested on a certain kind of information than other. We usually select the most useful information and summarize it in text form or as a chart. As we were mentioning before, we are looking for data on the benefits and challenges of adopting a certain tool or strategy. This slide shows an example on how we summarized the findings from Project Tomorrow’s Speak Up 2015 National Findings report on mobile learning.
- The following, more advanced, step is synthesizing data from multiple reports. This gives us a general and broad picture of the evolution of a trend. For this slide, we put together findings from three different reports on online learning for business and industry, K-12, and higher education. The three reports show a similar trend: Increasingly more people are taking online training and online courses.
- Finally, sometimes we need to gather missing information to be able to use a report. For example, we were interested on the findings of the Learning & Development: Technology trends report (2015) by the Impact Instruction Group but we could not find information on their sample. So, Weinan contacted via email the authors of the report and they kindly sent us the information that we were missing. Now, we can include the findings of this report on our analysis. (Let’s discuss how you can conclude your portion of the report and then re-introduce me so I can conclude our presentation)