Is Mobile 2.0 making carriers redundant?


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Fabrizio Capobianco talk at OSiM 2008 about whether Mobile 2.0 will make carriers redundant

Is Mobile 2.0 making carriers redundant?

  1. Is Mobile 2.0 Making Carriers Redundant? Fabrizio Capobianco, CEO, Funambol
  2. <ul><li>Yes!  </li></ul>
  3. Contents <ul><li>Open mobile milestones and trends </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile 2.0 defined </li></ul><ul><li>Value of open source for Mobile 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Carrier role in Mobile 2.0 value chain </li></ul>
  4. Open Mobile Milestones 2001 – 2007 <ul><li>2001: Sync4j project launched as mobile open source app server </li></ul><ul><li>2005: Sync4j renamed Funambol (tightrope walker), reaches one million downloads </li></ul><ul><li>2006: OpenMoko announced </li></ul><ul><li>2007: Google launches Android </li></ul><ul><li>Limo Foundation formed </li></ul><ul><li>Verizon announces 'any device, any application' </li></ul>
  5. Open Mobile Milestones 2008 <ul><li>2008: Nokia buys TrollTech, announces Symbian to be open source </li></ul><ul><li>Vodafone announces free data with prepaid plans </li></ul><ul><li>Rise of open source mobile browsers </li></ul><ul><li>LiMo membership exceeds 50, ships 22 nd handset </li></ul><ul><li>Funambol V7 launched, reaches 2.5M downloads </li></ul><ul><li>…first Android phones to ship </li></ul><ul><li>…Windows Mobile goes open source </li></ul>
  6. iPhone Impact <ul><li>iPhone is most significant device in mobile industry </li></ul><ul><li>iTunes, MobileMe (mobile sync) and Appstore (3rd party apps) raises bar for industry along several dimensions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>end-to-end device to server ease-of-use </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>innovative business model (razor/blades) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>shifting balance of power away from carriers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Yet it is 100% controlled by Apple and not that open </li></ul>
  7. Key Mobile Trends <ul><li>3.3 billion people have mobile phones </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1.4b connected to mobile internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rapid growth in emerging markets (&quot;next billion&quot; phones) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Smartphones fastest growing segment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mobile networks are getting faster, cheaper, better </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Data plan costs dropping (to zero) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Networks are getting open (good-bye “on-deck”) </li></ul><ul><li>Open source is getting everywhere </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile advertising is gradually becoming real </li></ul>
  8. Mobile 2.0 Defined <ul><li>Next generation of mobile services, apps and content </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 (maybe) means: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>user generated content (e.g. wikis) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>collaboration (social networking) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>AJAX, mash-ups and rapid development </li></ul></ul>
  9. Mobile 2.0 Defined , continued <ul><li>Mobile 2.0 is different – it's the outgrowth of </li></ul><ul><ul><li>better, faster, cheaper wireless devices, networks and data plans </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>people seeking the next hip mobile experience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>mobile messaging beyond SMS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2008 survey about services mobile users would use most: 33% email, 25% social networking </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Examples: mobile email, search, presence, social networking, LBS, phone-based navigation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>it's more than just the &quot;new&quot; mobile web, it's &quot;mobile everywhere&quot; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>all types of data and content must be mobilized and synced </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>it goes beyond mobile phones (e.g. navigation systems) </li></ul></ul>
  10. Mobile 1.0 vs. Mobile 2.0 Mobile 1.0 Mobile 2.0 Operator chooses User chooses (walled garden) (wide open network) Operator portals Mobile search Texting Mobile Email, social networking MMS Photo sharing 411 Google maps, location services Content consumption Content creation
  11. Mobile 2.0 Caveat <ul><li>Mobile 2.0 is NOT about squeezing a Web 2.0 experience into a mobile device </li></ul><ul><ul><li>it has been tried with Web 1.0 and it failed miserably </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>if this becomes the focus, it will fail again </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mobile 2.0 is a combination of locally installed apps with data stored locally, updated over-the-air via push while the user is not looking at the device </li></ul><ul><ul><li>browser is an element of the puzzle, not the main driver </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>widgets are closest to the perfect experience, if you add local storage, sync and push </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 technologies might become backbone of Mobile 2.0 (e.g. Webkit and mobile AJAX) </li></ul></ul>
  12. Mobile 2.0 is about OPENNESS <ul><li>OPEN NETWORKS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Is Verizon “Any Apps, Any Device” real and what about the 700Mhz spectrum? Will it rock our world? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What about WiMax, City-wide Wi-Fi, FON, Meraki, and so on? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>OPEN DEVICES </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Is Google Android going to take off like a rocket? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is the iPhone closed or open? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>OPEN CONTENT </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Is the weather forecast an open content? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What about gambling, micropayments and adult entertainment? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>OPEN SOURCE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Is open source changing the game for good and how many Mobile Linux variations will we see? Why does it matter so much? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will Funambol be the first billion dollars open source company? </li></ul></ul>
  13. Mobile 2.0 Core Technologies <ul><li>To build and deliver mobile 2.0, what's needed? </li></ul><ul><li>Open mobile industry standards e.g. SyncML </li></ul><ul><li>Synchronization between handsets, personal computers, the cloud & backend systems </li></ul><ul><li>Push notification – one method does not fit all </li></ul><ul><li>Easy integration with diverse backend systems (mash-up) </li></ul><ul><li>Location based services </li></ul><ul><li>Scalability </li></ul><ul><li>Security </li></ul><ul><li>AN OPEN SOURCE COMMUNITY </li></ul>
  14. Value of Open Source for Mobile 2.0 <ul><li>Code transparency  reduced project risk </li></ul><ul><li>Low cost/free  only way to deploy to mass market </li></ul><ul><li>Large community  mobile innovation, resources, support </li></ul><ul><li>Broadest mobile device compatibility </li></ul>
  15. Carrier Role in Mobile 2.0 Value Chain <ul><li>Carriers today are often castigated for: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>tight control over handsets, networks and walled gardens </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>high cost of data plans </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>being difficult and costly to work with by 3rd party developers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Carrier's report that: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>control is needed because their call centers are first line of support & they cannot support 3rd party apps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2.0 services such as Youtube eat up inordinate network bandwidth, much more than cost of providing services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>they do not have capacity to handle large amounts of 2.0 data traffic, upgrade requires huge investment not warranted by potential revenue </li></ul></ul>
  16. What Functions Do Carriers Perform? <ul><li>Set up and operate mobile networks 24/7, including </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Acquire and retain subscribers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bill subscribers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Perform customer service </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Source phones from device manufacturers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Authenticate users </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Connect calls </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Support roaming </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interconnect with other networks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Operate mobile messaging (e.g. SMS) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manage retail stores </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide 3rd party services and content </li></ul></ul>
  17. What shall I do (if I am a carrier)? <ul><li>Long term, anything is possible, but in short term (next several years), evolutionary change likely e.g.: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gradually relinquish control and be more open to third party devices, services and content (like Verizon) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Set up MobileMe & Appstore equivalents to get control back in services (like T-Mobile) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide APIs for third parties to hook into their networks to leverage customer relationships, billing, services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Play greater role in helping users find relevant third party services and content (both mass market and long tail) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduce data plan pricing, which will increase demand for and usage of data-intensive services (increase ARPU) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adopt open source methodologies and communities </li></ul></ul>
  18. Summary <ul><li>Mobile 2.0 is next gen of wireless apps services & content </li></ul><ul><li>It's not just the web on a mobile device, it's all about openness and open source </li></ul><ul><li>Carriers will play a major role in Mobile 2.0 if they are quick enough to grab it: the time is NOW </li></ul>