The Road to a Fairly Predictable System

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The Road to a Fairly Predictable System

  1. 1. @ZsoltFabok http://zsoltfabok.com/ #llkd14 http://lanyrd.com/2014/llkd14/ by Zsolt Fabok 2014.04.28 The Road to a Fairly Predictable System
  2. 2. @ZsoltFabok and /or #llkd14
  3. 3. Objective: Reduce “MURA” (unevenness) in the project’s life by increasing predictability
  4. 4. Courtesy of Pawel Brodzinski: http://www.slideshare.net/pawelbrodzinski/fixing-portfolio-management
  5. 5. The Schedule Portfolio Board
  6. 6. Done Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 # ~ 2 / 3 # ~ 0 / 1 # ~ 1 / 1 # ~ 3 / 3 Week 14 Week 15 now # ~ ~ ~ team blue’s item # ~ ~ ~ team red’s item team yellow’s item# ~ ~ ~ # ~ 4 / 5 # ~ 6 / 6 # ~ 4 / 9 # ~ 4 / 4 # ~ 1 / 2 # ~ 0 / 3 # ~ 0 / 4 # ~ 0 / 5 # ~ 0 / 3 # ~ 1 / 4
  7. 7. Done Week 12 # ~ 3 / 5 Week 11 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 portfolio board # ~ 1 / 2 team red’s board Next Design Implementation Review Done # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ 0 / 3 # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~
  8. 8. The changes happen on the team level boards. The portfolio boards only provide a different perspective.
  9. 9. The Release Board
  10. 10. releases done # ~ 1 / 10 # ~ 2 / 5 # ~ 4 / 5 # ~ 2 / 3 # ~ 3 / 3 Experim ental
  11. 11. releases schedule portfolio team Releases Done Done Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Next Implement Review Done # ~ 2/ 3 # ~ 5 / 7 # ~ 1 / 2 # ~ 4 / 6 # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ depends updates
  12. 12. Predictions based on history
  13. 13. On the portfolio level
  14. 14. days 0 3 5 8 10 13 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121316 count For example, lead time and WIP distribution for a team on the portfolio level 0 2 5 7 1 2 3 4 count WIP
  15. 15. On the team level
  16. 16. Courtesy of digitalnatives.hu
  17. 17. All the work items we had so far (~20 work items) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ v v v v v v v v
  18. 18. Categorizing them into three groups ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ v v v v v v v v S M L
  19. 19. The lead time distribution ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ v v v v M 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 16days count
  20. 20. The lead time distribution ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ v v v v M 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 16 SLA days count
  21. 21. The lead time distribution ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ v v v v M 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 16 SLA days count Expired
  22. 22. The spent time distribution ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ v v v v M 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10hours count
  23. 23. The spent time distribution ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ v v v v M 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 SLA hours count
  24. 24. Courtesy of digitalnatives.hu
  25. 25. A big jump forward
  26. 26. If we find anything on any of the boards or in any of the measurements, it becomes a risk...
  27. 27. The Risk Kanban Board
  28. 28. It started with a cost of delay flavored Kanban System.
  29. 29. Courtesy of prezi.com
  30. 30. # ~ ~ ~ 8 Done 4 # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ 5 2 time impact Ongoing
  31. 31. time impact time impact time impact time impact level 1 level 2 level 3 level 4 cost of delay: t2t1 cost of delay(t1) < cost of delay(t2) Based on Jeff Anderson’s cost of delay functions; http://bit.ly/1fiO9bf
  32. 32. time impact time impact time impactlevel 3 level 3 level 2
  33. 33. time impact time impactlevel 2 level 2 level 1 time impact
  34. 34. Review your board during the stand-up meeting:
  35. 35. # ~ ~ ~ Done # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ time impact Ongoing # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ priority The Risk Kanban Board
  36. 36. Managing risks
  37. 37. source: http://www.4dxbook.com
  38. 38. source: http://www.4dxbook.com
  39. 39. # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ time impact Make your worst risk a WIG (widely important goal)
  40. 40. Example Level 2 risk: “team 2 is never on time, and that risks the main release at the end of the year.”
  41. 41. WIG: “team 2 will be able to keep his weekly commitments by the 3rd quarter.” w31 w32 w33 w34 w35 input (demand) output (throughput) 14 13 13 15 24 15 23 12 17 10 Lag measure w31 w32 w33 w34 w35 items connected to the portfolio board Lead measure
  42. 42. This is a good example, when the lead measure has no effect on the lag measure. w31 w32 w33 w34 w35 19 25 23 20 24 15 23 12 17 10 w31 w32 w33 w34 w35
  43. 43. Summing up
  44. 44. releases schedule portfolio team risks Releases Done Done Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Next Implement Review Done # ~ 2/ 3 # ~ 5 / 7 # ~ 1 / 2 # ~ 4 / 6 # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 # ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ Done updates
  45. 45. Further reading http://zsoltfabok.com/blog/2012/08/waste-in-software- development/ http://zsoltfabok.com/blog/2014/03/risk-kanban-board/ http://zsoltfabok.com/blog/2014/04/schedule-portfolio- board/ http://zsoltfabok.com/blog/2014/02/be-more- predictable/ http://zsoltfabok.com/blog/2014/01/the-purpose-of-agile/
  46. 46. Thank you very much for your attention! @ZsoltFabokhttp://zsoltfabok.com/

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