QCon Beijing 2012- Predictably and Irrationally Agile
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QCon Beijing 2012- Predictably and Irrationally Agile

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Predictably and Irrationally Agile ...

Predictably and Irrationally Agile

People behavior is one of the centerpieces of Agile software development. Cognitive Psychology and Behavioral Economics have helped us achieve a better understanding of some human seemingly idiosyncratic behaviors, for example, the decoy effect on the decision-making process. Agile teams are constantly making decisions, for instance, while prioritising, estimating stories or choosing the size of an iteration.
This talk will compare and correlate Dan Ariely’s controlled experiments described in his book “Predictably Irrational” to Agile. The anticipated result should be an increased awareness of the reasoning behind some Agile values, principles and practices which, as a consequence, should improve the way we apply them as agile adopters and practitioners.

http://fabiopereira.me/blog/2012/02/05/speaking-at-qcon-beijing/

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    QCon Beijing 2012- Predictably and Irrationally Agile QCon Beijing 2012- Predictably and Irrationally Agile Presentation Transcript

    • Predictably and Irrationally Agilewww.fabiopereira.me  
    • Who isthis guy?
    • +$ 59 $ 125 $ 125 16% 0% 84% +$ 59 $ 12568% 32%
    • +  $ 59 $ 125 $ 125 DECOY
    • A -B B +$ 59 $ 125 $ 125 DECOY
    • a  
    • PsychologyCognitivePsychology
    • Introspection  Scientific Method  
    • Psychology Cognitive PsychologyEconomicDecisions/ Public Choice AGILE TEAMS
    • BlindExperiments  
    • Pepsi Challenge  h$p://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepsi_Challenge  
    • Placebo  
    • •  Individuals and interactions over processes and tools•  Working software over comprehensive documentation•  Customer collaboration over contract negotiation•  Responding to change over following a plan
    • 12  WEEK  COURSE  
    • StudentSyndrome  
    • “The goal of a #leanstartup is to movethrough the build-measure-learnfeedback loop as quickly as possible”
    • “The goal of a #leanstartup is to movethrough the build-measure-learnfeedback loop as quickly as possible”
    • I’d bu sel l for y forI’d $170 $2 400
    • Who changedmy precious code?!?!Endowment Effect
    • Relativity  
    • Shop Close   Shop Far   $22   $15  $455   $448  
    • Shop Close   Shop Far   Gain   $22   $15   $7  $455   $448   $7  
    • Shop Close   Shop Far   Gain   $22   $15   $7   31%  $455   $448   $7   2%  
    • Principle of Relative Priority  
    • Principle of Relative Priority  
    • Buying Features  Prioritising withpoker chips  
    • Planning   Poker  
    • Release Radar  
    • Anchoring  
    • SSN Initial Price? Bid Price14 $14 $855 $55 $3297 $97 $41
    • SSN Bid Price00-19 X   Y = 3X80-99 Y  
    • Paid $   Result  $5.00 159$0.50 101Zero: 168
    • Market Norms  Social Norms  
    • Collectivism vsIndividualism  
    • Cognitive Psychology Agile Teams Iterations Procrastination   Continuous Delivery   Collective CodeEndowment Effect Ownership   Principle of Relative Choice Relative Priority   Anchoring Change over Plan  Market/Social Norms Individuals/Incentives/Morale  
    • Predictably and Irrationally…www.fabiopereira.me   Agile  
    • www.fabiopereira.me  
    • Thanks  Referenceshttps://docs.google.com/Doc?id=ajk9hjp2k4px_10cfgw6h&pli=1http://web.mit.edu/ariely/www/MIT/Papers/tom.pdfhttp://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=243109http://agilemanifesto.org/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effectImages  h$p://agileboardhacks.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/release-­‐radar.jpg  h$p://www.officialpsds.com/images/thumbs/Fountain-­‐Pen-­‐psd17071.png  h$p://www.bigmen.com/suits/images/ass_suit.jpg   www.fabiopereira.me  h$p://www.flickr.com/photos/blueheronco/5314331388/  h$p://issociate.elcom.com.au/Images/UserUploadedImages/189/Big-­‐fish-­‐small-­‐pond-­‐vice-­‐versa.jpg  h$p://happyhonkers.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/clouds-­‐in-­‐blue-­‐sky.jpg  h$p://environmentalgateway.com/wp-­‐content/uploads/2010/07/Psychotherapy.jpg  h$p://communicaXons.nuim.ie/images/yakultlaunchChemistryScienceExperimentPic.jpg  h$p://preventcancer.aicr.org/images/content/pagebuilder/10387.jpg  h$p://www.freestockphotography.com.au/stockimages/276.jpg  h$p://informedfarmers.com/wp-­‐content/uploads/2011/09/hay_bale.jpg  h$p://4.bp.blogspot.com/_wdqqn17WEKY/TSS_7uP3OWI/AAAAAAAAINA/MnJ2DoAd-­‐cI/s1600/cowpic.jpg  h$p://www.chickenpickinchops.com/images/chicken2.jpg  h$p://studenthacks.org/wp-­‐content/uploads/2007/11/thesis-­‐paper.jpg  h$p://www.magicdesXnaXon.com/foz-­‐de-­‐iguassu/7774_235.jpg  h$p://www.labsaofrancisco.com/imagens/laboratorio.jpg  h$p://www.shescribes.com/wp-­‐content/uploads/2010/12/Change-­‐of-­‐Plans-­‐Logo.jpg