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    Rodrigo favela md Rodrigo favela md Presentation Transcript

    • Global Middle Distillate AvailabilityRodrigo Favela Fierro, Exec. Director for Refining, Planning and Evaluation, Hart Energy
    • Global Middle Distillate Availability Crude Oil to Biofuels ConferenceRodrigo Favela – Executive Director for Refining, Planning & Evaluation
    • Middle Distillates a Key Driver in Refining Market Refined Product Growth Composition of the Increment 140 Others Gasoline LPG 15% 9% Million Barrles per Day 120 113.5 9% 102.9 100 Residual Naptha 86.6 Fuels 8% 80 3% Jet 60 7% 40 Diesel 20 49% 0 2010 2020 2030 Increment = 27.1 MMBD • Global refined product demand will grow by 27.1 MMBD between 2010 and 2030, 1.5% growth rate per year. • Middle distillate has been the fastest growing refined product category and will account for half of the increment for the 2010-2030 period. 2.3% growth rate per yearSource: WRFS – Hartenergy, 2011
    • Middle Distillate Market by Sector, 2010 Marine Diesel Industrial & 4% Heating Oil 27% On-Road Non-Road & Transport Agricultural 57% 12%•Global middle distillate demand in 2010 was 25.2 million barrels per day, including renewable distillate blending components and GTL / CTL•On-road diesel accounts for 57% of the distillate market. On-road diesel has grown at a rate of 2.9% annually between 2005 and 2010 and is projected to increase 2.4% per year between 2010 and 2030
    • Middle Distillate Market by Sulfur Category, 2010 > 2,000 ppm < 10 ppm 30% 21% 11 - 50 501 - ppm 2,000 51 - 500 17% ppm ppm 18% 14%• Distillate with a sulfur content of 10 ppm or less accounts for 21% of the market - European transportation diesel and on-road diesel in Japan and South Korea.• Diesel containing less than 50 ppm of sulfur is 38% of the market with a majority of the 11 ppm to 50 ppm volume in North America.
    • Middle Distillate Demand Outlook by Sulfur Million barrels per day 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2013 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 < 10 ppm 11 - 500 ppm > 500 ppm• Middle distillate products will continuously shift to lower sulfur.• In developed regions, most on-road and non-road diesel will be ultra-low sulfur diesel (<50 ppm) by 2015. Other regions on later dates• The global low sulfur market will move from 38% ultra-low sulfur (<50 ppm) diesel in 2010 to more than 64% ultra-low sulfur diesel in 2030• Marine fuels sulfur content restrictions will increase the demand of diesel after 2020Source: WRFS – Hartenergy, 2011
    • Global Distillate Demand Growth by Region, 2010-2030 Thousand barrels per day / % annual growth 7,000 3.1% 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 3.8% 3.2% 2,000 0.8% 0.8% 3.5% 2.4% 1,000 0 North Latin Europe Russia/CIS Asia Pacific Middle East Africa America America• The Asia-Pacific region is the largest middle distillate market with 31% market share, followed by Europe 26% and then North America 17%.• Asia-Pacific middle distillate demand will increase 6.6 million barrels per day by 2030, an annual growth of 3.1 % - Additional growth if light duty vehicle dieselization program is implemented• The distillate shortfall in Europe will continue to grow.
    • Top 10 Middle Distillate Consuming Countries, 2010 Country Thousand Barrels per Day Market Share of Global U.S. 3,810 15.1% China 3,205 12.7% India 1,315 5.2% Germany 1,135 4.5% France 988 3.9% Brazil 849 3.4% Japan 810 3.2% Spain 678 2.7% Saudi Arabia 626 2.5% Italy 616 2.4%
    • Outlook on Sulfur Reduction in Marine Fuels 5.0 Sulfur equivalent cap (%) 4.0 Global equivalent sulfur 3.0 emission control Europe, North America, 2.0 Japan Emission Control Areas (ECA) 1.0 0.0 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028• MARPOL, Annex VI was ratified by IMO, requesting 0.5% sulfur content for global marine fuels after 2020 and implementing 0.1% ECAs before 2015.• 60% of marine fleet can be economically retrofitted or constructed with Exhaust gas after-treatment technology (Scrubbers).• Ship operators will most likely choose to install scrubbers and continue to use high-sulfur fuel oil because it is proven technology and economics favor scrubbers over fuel sulfur reduction.
    • Impact of Regulations on Distillate Demand Marine Fuel Demand Thousand barrels per day / % distillate of total demand 7,000 100% 6,000 80% 5,000 4,000 60% 3,000 40% 2,000 20% 1,000 0 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Marine Diesel HFO Bunker %Diesel• Demand for marine diesel will increase as a result of lower sulfur requirements of the International Maritime Organization (IMO).• Marine distillate will increase by about 260 thousand barrels per day in 2015 because of low-sulfur requirements in Emission Control Areas (ECAs) and another 460 thousand barrels per day between 2020-2025 when global sulfur emission standards are expected to be in place
    • Renewable diesel and GTL/CTL Contribution Global 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2030Renewable Diesel 340 409 475 605 905 1259GTL/CTL Components 126 155 191 326 740 950Distillate Demand 25,213 25,454 26,058 28,375 32,152 39,559% Renewable 1.30% 1.60% 1.80% 2.10% 2.80% 3.20%% Renewable/GTL/CTL 1.80% 2.20% 2.60% 3.30% 5.10% 5.60%• Renewable fuel and gas-to-liquid (GTL) and coal-to-liquid (CTL) diesel components will increase nearly four-fold.• Together, renewable liquid fuels and GTL/CTL will increase from 1.8% of middle distillate supply in 2010 to 5.6% of supply in 2030.
    • Refining Capacity, 2010-2020 Planned Required Required MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 2015 2015 2020  Significant expansion to exceed historical Crude Distillation 11.07 6.27 11.58 growth and planned Light Oil Processing additions (developing Reforming 0.81 0.77 1.28 nations) – Distillation, Isomerization 0.26 0.22 0.28 Hydroprocessing, 0.03 .03 0.07 Coking and Alkylation/Polymerization Conversion Hydrocracking Coking 1.03 0.98 1.6 Catalytic Cracking 1.22 1.03 2.06  Sulfur surplus and H2 Hydrocracking 1.25 1.22 2.30 deficit Hydroprocessing Gasoline 0.72 0.35 1.29  Middle East is Naphta 0.90 0.91 1.39 projected to become Middle Distillates 2.51 5.59 8.45 the world marginal Heavy Oil/Residual Fuel 0.43 0.53 0.72 refined product supplySource: WRFS– Hartenergy, 2011 center REFINING CAPACITY
    • Conclusions• Global refined product will increase by 27.1 MMBD, and 50% will be diesel• ULS fuels, sulfur restrictions in residuals, higher combustion efficiency and reductions in carbon footprint will tighten even more the diesel balance and penalize both residuals and heavy crude oils.• In order to meet demand needs an unprecedented amount of refinery and biofuels projects will have to be built in developing countries.• Refinery economics will improve in the second half of this decade as global economics recover and the refining industry emerges from a consolidation –reconfiguration process