Global Middle Distillate AvailabilityRodrigo Favela Fierro, Exec. Director for Refining, Planning and Evaluation, Hart Energy
Global Crude and Petroleum Product Trends Crude Oil to Biofuels Conference Rodrigo Favela – Executive Director for Refining, Planning & Evaluation
Primary Energy Demand GrowthBP Outlook, 2011
Global Refining and Fuel Markets • Primary Energy Market share: Oil reduction; Carbon, Hydro, Nuclear maintain; and Gas and Renewable increment • Refining market near–term overcapacity until 2015 (low refining margins and volatility). • Beyond 2015, growth in demand will consume surplus supply and improve margins.Regional differentiation : Industrialized nations: No significant growth because of low population growth, higher prices and new conservation policies. Focus on rebalancing demand (more diesel), rationalizing capacity, and accommodating biofuels Developing regions : 2.5% annual growth because of expanding populations and economies Focus will be on refining capacity expansion and cleaner fuels.
Global Refined Product Demand Outlook, 2010-2030 140 120 113.5 Million Barrles per Day 102.9 100 86.6 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2020 2030 Demand Increment> 27 MMBpd – Half of increment Diesel Oil Supply> Increment from Brazil, FSU, Oil Sands, Saudi and Iraq – decrement from non-OPEC Other (affecting refinery output) > Biofuels and NGLs, CNG vehiclesSource: WRFS – Hartenergy, 2011
Gasoline and Diesel Demand Growth and Quality Outlook Gasoline Diesel 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 2010 2013 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2013 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 < 10 ppm 11 - 50 ppm > 50 ppm < 10 ppm 11 - 500 ppm > 500 ppm• Both gasoline and diesel markets will continue to evolve into less than 10 ppm ULS fuels . Gasoline first, diesel with slower evolution• High sulfur diesel will retain 25% of the diesel demand, industrial and bunker• Demand for marine diesel will increase, because lower sulfur requirements IMOSource: WRFS – Hartenergy, 2011
Crude Oil Outlook Global Crude Oil Quality Trends Increased Crude/Liquids API°, %Sulfur Thousand Barrels per Day34.0 1.30 Light/Me Shale33.5 1.20 dium Oil 6%33.0 5% SCO GTL/CTL 9%32.5 1.10 HCO 9%32.0 38% Biofuels 1.0031.5 19% Condensa31.0 0.90 te/NGL 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 14%• Crude oil production will increase from 73.5 MMbpd to 93.0 MMpbd by 2030• Heavy crude oil, biofuels and condensate/NGL will have the largest contribution to liquid supply – Impact on distillate yields• Heavy crude oil production will increase from 9.4 MMbpd to 16.1 MMpbd by 2030. Growth in all regions except Europe/FSU, concentrated on the Americas.
Changes in Product Trade Patterns Escalating gasoline and distillate imbalance in Europe. The distillate shortfall in Europe will continue to grow – less volume available from traditional CIS supply, Middle East, North Africa and Brazil will export to Europe Declining gasoline demand in North America. Europe to export gasoline to other regions Asia-Pacific will maintain its own supply/demand balance but will shift from marginal exporter to marginal importer of gasoline Latin America will increase its own production and will shift from importer to marginal importer of diesel Middle East is projected to become the world marginal refined product supply center.
Conclusions• Energy demand will grow by 39% in the next 20 years, driven by population and GDP growth in developing countries.• Global refined product will increase by 27.1 MMBD, and 50% will be diesel• Global crude oil quality will stay almost constant in average, but additional heavy crude oil will compensate incremental condensate output reducing primary diesel yields.• ULS fuels, sulfur restrictions in residuals, higher combustion efficiency and reductions in carbon footprint will tighten even more the diesel balance and penalize both residuals and heavy crude oils.• Refinery expansions , hydrocracking and residual processing will significantly exceed historical growth and planned additions.• Refinery economics will improve in the second half of this decade as global economics recover and the refining industry emerges from a consolidation –reconfiguration process
Energy Intensity EvolutionVEHICLES PER 1000 PEOPLE 2025 Estados Unidos USA 2001 Países Developed Canada industrializados Countries Canadá Japan Alemania Japón Germany Mexico Reino Unido UK East Europa Brazil Europe del Este México Mundo Rest of India Brasil World Países en desarrollo China China PIB PER CAPITA (1997 US$/ Habitant)
Planned / Expected Capacity Changes for Asia Pacific, 2010 - 20187,0006,000 350 120 650 4,8265,000 8304,000 1,252 9713,000 2,5952,0001,000 -