Ivan de sa_pereira
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Ivan de sa_pereira Ivan de sa_pereira Presentation Transcript

  • Outlook for Otto-Cycle Fuels in Brazil From Crude Oils to Biofuels- Hart Energy Conference October 25th, 2011 Ivan de Sá General Manager of Clean Products Trading Downstream – Trading & Marketing 1
  • DISCLAIMERFORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:DISCLAIMERThe presentation may contain forward-looking statements aboutfuture events within the meaning of Section 27A of the We undertake no obligation to publicly update orSecurities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the revise any forward-looking statements, whether asSecurities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not a result of new information or future events or forbased on historical facts and are not assurances of future any other reason. Figures for 2011 on areresults. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the estimates or targets.Company’s current views and estimates of future economiccircumstances, industry conditions, company performance and All forward-looking statements are expresslyfinancial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", qualified in their entirety by this cautionary"forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with statement, and you should not place reliance onsimilar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such any forward-looking statement contained in thisforward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these presentation.statements are only projections and may differ materially from NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GASactual future results or events. Readers are referred to the RESERVES:documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically theCompany’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORSidentify important risk factors that could cause actual results to We present certain data in this presentation, suchdiffer from those contained in the forward-looking statements, as oil and gas resources, that we are not permittedincluding, among other things, risks relating to general economic to present in documents filed with the United Statesand business conditions, including crude oil and other Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) undercommodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because suchrates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and terms do not qualify as proved, probable orgas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulationinternational and Brazilian political, economic and social S-X.developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licensesand our ability to obtain financing. 2
  • AVISO Estas apresentações podem conter previsões acerca de eventos futuros. Tais previsões refletem apenas expectativas dos administradores da Companhia sobre condições futuras da economia, além do setor de atuação, do desempenho e dos resultados Aviso aos Investidores Norte-Americanos: financeiros da Companhia, dentre outros. Os termos “antecipa", "acredita", "espera", "prevê", A SEC somente permite que as "pretende", "planeja", "projeta", "objetiva", companhias de óleo e gás incluam em seus "deverá", bem como outros termos similares, relatórios arquivados reservas provadas visam a identificar tais previsões, as quais, que a Companhia tenha comprovado por evidentemente, envolvem riscos e incertezas produção ou testes de formação previstos ou não pela Companhia e, conclusivos que sejam viáveis econômica e conseqüentemente, não são garantias de legalmente nas condições econômicas e resultados futuros da Companhia. Portanto, os operacionais vigentes. Utilizamos alguns resultados futuros das operações da termos nesta apresentação, tais como Companhia podem diferir das atuais descobertas, que as orientações da SEC expectativas, e o leitor não deve se basear nos proíbem de usar em nossos relatórios exclusivamente nas informações aqui contidas. arquivados. A Companhia não se obriga a atualizar as apresentações e previsões à luz de novas informações ou de seus desdobramentos futuros. Os valores informados para 2011 em diante são estimativas ou metas. 3
  • Overview 4
  • Throughout last decade fuels market share ( energetic basis ) has changed and Ethanol reached a maximum share of 45,8% in 2009 2000 2009 Total Ethanol Total Ethanol 1,5% 6,4% = 32,1% 12,6% = 45,8% 29,9% 19,5% 47,8% 66,5% 2010 5,7% 15,9% 25,8% Total Ethanol 52,2% = 42,1% 16,3% Gasoline A Anhydrous Ethanol Hydrous Ethanol NGVSource: MME comparisons on the same energetic basis 5
  • In 2008 & 2009, Ethanol (hydrous + anhydrous) sales surpassed Gasoline, but since 2010 this trend shifted. 2011 (Jan-Aug): Gasoline A & Total Ethanol Gasoline A = 16.973 thousand m³ Ethanol = 12.920 thousand m³ 2000 – 2009 Growth: GASOLINE “A” = +0,9% aa 15.000 25.000 HYDROUS+ANHYDROUS = +10,0 % aa 20.000 thousand m³ Millions vehicles 10.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 5.000 0 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Flex fuel fleet Ethanol Hydrous + Anhydrous Gasoline ASource: ANP & Petrobras Strategic Planning Area 6
  • Drivers 7
  • Economic and social variables influence vehicles sales and Otto-Cycle demand • GDP • Consumer credit • Population • Energy Policy (tax, subsidies…) • Automotive Industry Strategy Vehicles Prices Sales Fleet retiring Fleet Unitary Ethanol x Consumption Gasoline C LGN Fuel Sales Conversions 8
  • Brazilian GDP and the impact on the Otto-Cycle demand 45.000.000 Otto cycle sales (m³ - gasoline C equivalent) 2010 40.000.000 2009 2008 35.000.000 30.000.000 2007 2 2004 R = 95% 2001 2002 2006 25.000.000 2005 2003 20.000.000 800.000 1.000.000 1.200.000 1.400.000 1.600.000 1.800.000 2.000.000 2.200.000 2.400.000 Domestic consumption (R$ millions)Source: ANP & IPEA/IBGEOtto cycle sales = Gasoline C + Hydrous Ethanol 9
  • Consumers are aware of relative fuel prices and seek the most economically efficient fuel option Hydrous Ethanol sales X Relative Prices Ethanol/Gasoline C 1.600 85% 1.400 Hydrous Ethanol Sales (thousand m3) Relative Prices Ethanol/Gasoline C 80% 1.200 75% 1.000 800 70% 600 65% 400 60% 200 - 55% mar-09 mai-09 mar-10 mai-10 mar-11 mai-11 jul-09 jul-10 jul-11 fev-09 set-09 set-10 jan-09 abr-09 jun-09 ago-09 out-09 nov-09 dez-09 fev-10 jan-10 abr-10 jun-10 ago-10 out-10 nov-10 dez-10 fev-11 jan-11 abr-11 jun-11 ago-11 Hydrous Ethanol Sales Relative Prices Ethanol/Gasoline CSource: ANP 10
  • Information regarding Ethanol supply and demand are essential for Gasoline competitiveness assessment Sugar Weather Production Customers Preferences/ Decision Sugarcane Crop Export Ethanol Gasoline $E Otto $G Production/ Cycle Production/ quality Market quality Import 11
  • Reduced Ethanol production reflected on prices increase, boosting Gasoline sales Total Ethanol Production – Brazil (thousand m³) Key Points: • Reduced new plants00 27.513 27.281 expansion 25.70000 24.750 • Old sugar cane plants: low 22.527 22.027 yielding00 15.947 17.719 • Weather conditions: 2009 14.80915.417 rainy & 2010 dry00 12.623 11.536 10.593 • Production driven to sugar00 due to high prices on00 international market 0 Forecast 11/12 Forecast 12/13 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Sources: UNICA e DATAGRO 12
  • Supply Challenge 13
  • Gasoline sales forecast is an input for Petrobras´s Planning Process, that involves the whole supply chain activities: from E&P to Marketing. 55 importing origins 48 national crude oils +15.000 km pipelines 14 refineries 156 final products 28 terminals delivery in 20 terminals60 imported crude oils 97 exporting destinations 14
  • There are increasing uncertainties about the composition of the mix gasoline/ethanol due to the significant growth of flex-fuel fleet Light Vehicles Fleet - Brazil 60.000 50.000 5% 40.000 Thousand Vehicles 30.000 77% 20.000 10.000 1% 18% 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Gasoline Ethanol Flexfuel DieselSource: Petrobras Strategic Planning Area 15
  • Source: ANP Sales m³ Dailym³/dia 100.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 0 jan/04 mar/04 mai/04 jul/04 set/04 nov/04 jan/05 mar/05 mai/05 jul/05 set/05 nov/05 jan/06 mar/06 mai/06 jul/06 set/06 nov/06 jan/07 mar/07 mai/07 jul/07 set/07 nov/07 jan/08 mar/08 mai/08 jul/08 set/08 nov/08 jan/09 mar/09 mai/09 jul/09 Gasolinegasolina C e etanol hidratado Sales ANP) set/09 nov/09 Vendas de C & Hydrous Ethanol (fonte: - Brazil jan/10 mar/10 Gasoline C mai/10 jul/10 Hydrous Ethanol set/10 nov/10 jan/11 mar/11 mai/11 jul/11 How to cope with unexpected changes in consumption profile? 16
  • Main challenges• Huge monthly Gasoline sales variations reaching 22% (March 2011 vs February 2011)• Some distribution systems are closed to maximum capacity  need of supply chain adjustments• As an agricultural commodity Ethanol supply can be affected by weather conditions and economy – Ethanol supply forecasts can vary significantly during crop year (decrease of 5 billion liters from initial to latest forecast for 2011/12 crop) 17
  • Supply Chain Management 18
  • To cope with this volatile environment, Petrobras includes in its Business Plan…• Biofuels investments: – partnerships with the sugar cane sector (PBIO) – Ethanol logistics (LÓGUM)• Gasoline supply flexibility: • Changes on internal production mix (Gasoline production optimization) • Facilities for Gasoline imports• Continuous trading & marketing assessments for Gasoline and Ethanol 19
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