On user generated content, teleology and predictability in social systems<br />Fabio [.] Giglietto [@uniurb.it] <br />Depa...
Summary<br />Purposefulness and Teleology;<br />What Society Wants?;<br />Case Study: FacebookLikes & Local Elections in I...
Purposefulness and Teleology<br />Arturo Rosenblueth, Norbert Wiener and Julian Bigelow<br />Behavior, Purpose and Teleolo...
What Society Wants?<br />Parsons: A.G.I.L. functional imperatives;<br />Luhmann:<br />Evolution of the structure of societ...
Impact of the Internet on the evolution of distribution media<br />
Effects of the Internet<br />Increased number of permanent, searchable communications -> effect on the probability of comm...
Literature review<br />PredictingSearch Trends, Digg and YouTubevideo popularity, Unemployment Rate (US, Germany);<br />Go...
Case study: predicting Italian local elections with Facebook<br />Case<br />15th and 16th of May;<br />More than 3000 muni...
Case study: predictingItalianlocalelections with Facebook<br />Sample<br />29 municipalities*, 229 major candidates;<br />...
Case study: predictingItalianlocalelections with Facebook<br />Analysis<br />Index of Predictionaccurateness [on a scale 0...
Case study: predictingItalianlocalelections with Facebook<br />Results<br />18%<br />The winner was correctly predicted<br...
Case study: predictingItalianlocalelections with Facebook<br />Results<br />Index of predictionaccurateness<br />averagesc...
Case study: predictingItalianlocalelections with Facebook<br />Results<br />AverageMunicipality∆ =𝐴𝐵𝑆(22%)<br /> <br />
Conclusions<br />Predicting the semantics (based on past ) in social systemsappears to be promising;<br />The accurateness...
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On user generated content, teleology and predictability in social systems

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Presented during the 10th International Conference of Sociocybernetics, Cracow, Poland, 20-25 June 2011

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On user generated content, teleology and predictability in social systems

  1. 1. On user generated content, teleology and predictability in social systems<br />Fabio [.] Giglietto [@uniurb.it] <br />Deparment of CommunicationStudies| LaRiCA| Università di Urbino Carlo Bo<br />10th International Conference of Sociocybernetics, Cracow, Poland, 20-25 June 2011<br />
  2. 2. Summary<br />Purposefulness and Teleology;<br />What Society Wants?;<br />Case Study: FacebookLikes & Local Elections in Italy.<br />
  3. 3. Purposefulness and Teleology<br />Arturo Rosenblueth, Norbert Wiener and Julian Bigelow<br />Behavior, Purpose and Teleology<br />in: Philosophy of Science, 10(1943), S. 18–24<br />
  4. 4. What Society Wants?<br />Parsons: A.G.I.L. functional imperatives;<br />Luhmann:<br />Evolution of the structure of society;<br />Improbability of communication;<br />Language;<br />Distribution media (time/space);<br />Symbolically generalized communication media.<br />Semantics.<br />
  5. 5. Impact of the Internet on the evolution of distribution media<br />
  6. 6. Effects of the Internet<br />Increased number of permanent, searchable communications -> effect on the probability of communication;<br />Society may observe itself as never before (Google Books Ngram Viewer);<br />Can we predict the behavior of social systems by analyzing the patterns of previous communications?<br />
  7. 7. Literature review<br />PredictingSearch Trends, Digg and YouTubevideo popularity, Unemployment Rate (US, Germany);<br />Google Flu Trends;<br />Previous study on Facebook and Elections (1, 2, 3). <br />
  8. 8. Case study: predicting Italian local elections with Facebook<br />Case<br />15th and 16th of May;<br />More than 3000 municipalities involved.<br />Methodology<br />Data collection<br />Google Spreadsheet (platform for collaboration & sharing);<br />Manual search and data entry of candidates and their official Facebook Pages;<br />Google Script to automatically retrieve and save the number of Likes.<br />
  9. 9. Case study: predictingItalianlocalelections with Facebook<br />Sample<br />29 municipalities*, 229 major candidates;<br />102 FacebookPages (44,5% of candidates);<br />Over 300.000 totalLikes.<br />* All the provincial capitals<br />
  10. 10.
  11. 11. Case study: predictingItalianlocalelections with Facebook<br />Analysis<br />Index of Predictionaccurateness [on a scale 0 to 10];<br />∆ =𝑉𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑆h𝑎𝑟𝑒 - 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑘 𝐿𝑖𝑘𝑒𝑠 𝑆h𝑎𝑟𝑒 (∆ calculated by candidate, by municipality and by political areas).<br /> <br />
  12. 12. Case study: predictingItalianlocalelections with Facebook<br />Results<br />18%<br />The winner was correctly predicted<br />39%<br />Other<br />43%<br />Most popular candidate on Facebook arrived second in the election<br />82%<br />
  13. 13. Case study: predictingItalianlocalelections with Facebook<br />Results<br />Index of predictionaccurateness<br />averagescore: 4,7<br />
  14. 14. Case study: predictingItalianlocalelections with Facebook<br />Results<br />AverageMunicipality∆ =𝐴𝐵𝑆(22%)<br /> <br />
  15. 15. Conclusions<br />Predicting the semantics (based on past ) in social systemsappears to be promising;<br />The accurateness of prediction is correlated to the quantity of data available;<br />Emergence of new feedback loops.<br />

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