Measuring chronic poverty
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Measuring chronic poverty Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Based on Chronic Poverty Report 2008-9 Chronic Poverty
  • 2. What is chronic poverty? Distinguished by extended duration: the chronically poor are those living below a given poverty line for „a long time‟: Poor for all or much of their lives, Pass on poverty to subsequent generations, and/or Die a preventable, poverty-related death. Chronically poor are commonly multi-dimensionally deprived. Combinations of capability deprivation, low levels of material assets, and socio-political marginality keeps them poor over long periods. Relationship between poverty severity and poverty chronicity, at both the country and household level, is complex and only partly understood.
  • 3. “Chronic poverty is that poverty that is ever present and never ceases. It is like the rains of the grasshopper season that beat you consistently and for a very long time. You become completely soaked because you have no way out. … … Some poverty passes from one generation to another, as if the offspring sucks it from the mother‟s breast. They in turn pass it on to their children.” - Group of disabled women in Nkokonjeru Providence Home, Mukono, Uganda (source: Lwanga-Ntale 2003). What is chronic poverty?
  • 4. Poverty dynamics Always poor (BPL in each period) Usually poor (mean poverty over all periods BPL, not poor in every period) Fluctuating poor (poor in some periods but not others, mean poverty around poverty line) Occasionally poor (mean poverty APL but at least 1 period in poverty) Never poor (APL in all periods) CHRONICALLY POOR TRANSITORY POOR NON POOR Poverty line Mean score Time Time Time Time Time
  • 5. Poverty dynamics vs. poverty trends Uganda has experienced significant reduction in poverty: from 1992 to 1999, aggregate national poverty rate fell by about 20%. But this aggregate poverty trend tells us nothing about what happened to individual households. Poverty trends can mask important poverty dynamics: about 19% of households were poor in both 1992 and 1999 (the chronically poor), and while almost 30% of households moved out of poverty, another 10% moved in (the transitory poor). This more nuanced understanding of poverty requires the collection of panel data and life histories alongside the standard household surveys.
  • 6. Global extent of chronic poverty South Asia 126-176 m Highest number of chronically poor people Sub-Saharan Africa 124-159 m Highest prevalence of chronic poverty (esp. West/ Central Africa) East Asia/Pacific 51-81 m Rest of World 19-27 m APPROX. 320-443 MILLION CHRONICALLY POOR
  • 7. Poverty TRAPs Insecurity Trap Limited citiZenship Spatial disAdvantage Social Discrimination Poor work opportunity
  • 8. Global extent (size) and prevalence (colour) of chronic poverty Desperately deprived Moderately deprived Relatively non-deprived Insufficient data OECD Deprivation: severe stunting, U5MR, female illiteracy, probability of not surviving until 40, $1/day poverty
  • 9. Why focus on the chronically poor? The moral case MDGs, and post-MDGs: Some MDGs can never be achieved without reaching the chronically poor. Other MDGs will be achieved fully or in part by excluding the chronically poor. The poverty of those left behind post- 2015 will likely be even more intractable. Grievance-based politics? By denying the poorest – those with least to lose – we risk undermining political and economic stability Useful for mobilising political commitment and funds, but remains unproven
  • 10. Who are the chronically poor? Discrimination and deprivation Marginalised ethnic, religious, caste groups, incl. indigenous, nomadic peoples; Migrant, stigmatised, bonded labourers; Refugees, IDPs; Disabled people; People with ill-health, esp. HIV/AIDS; To different extents, poor women and girls. Household composition, life-cycle position children; older people; widows; households headed by older people, disabled people, children, and, in certain cases, women
  • 11. Where are the chronically poor? Understanding spatial poverty traps REMOTE Areas far from the centres of economic and political activity. „Far‟ is calculated in terms of distance and time ( „frictional distance‟). LOW POTENTIAL Areas with low agricultural or natural resources, often crudely equated with drylands and highlands. ~1.8 billon peopleLESS FAVOURED Politically disadvantaged areas WEAKLY INTEGRATED Areas that are not well-connected, physically and in terms of communication and markets. Economically disadvantaged areas. Chronic poverty is harshest where spatial and social deprivation overlap.
  • 12. Why are people chronically poor? Context matters Causes of chronic poverty sometimes same as causes of poverty, only more intense, widespread, long-lasting. In other cases, there is a qualitative difference between the causes of transitory and chronic poverty, requiring different policies. Rarely a single cause – most chronic poverty due to multiple, overlapping, interacting factors operating at levels from intra-household to global. Maintainers: factors that keep people in poverty Drivers: factors that cause people to slide into poverty traps
  • 13. Why are people chronically poor? The maintainers and drivers of chronic poverty Quantity and quality of economic growth No, low, and narrowly-based growth situations raise the probability of people being trapped in poverty. But growth is not ‘almost enough’. For the working chronically poor, sectoral composition of growth really matters, esp. whether it includes broad-based agricultural growth and is in sectors with high demand for unskilled labour The ‘non-working’ chronically poor are most vulnerable to economic shocks, because of their dependance on any benefits from economic growth derived from a mix of private and public social protection. Geography and agro-ecology Geography and agro-ecology combine with social, economic, political and institutional factors to create spatial poverty traps
  • 14. Social exclusion and adverse incorporation Structures of social exclusion (discrimination, stigma, invisibility) are the basis for processes of adverse incorporation (declining assets, low wages, job insecurity, minimal access to social protection, dependency on a patron). Risk and vulnerability shape social relations: chronically poor people often manage vulnerability by developing patron-client ties that produce desirable, immediate outcomes by trading-off longer term needs and rights. Cultures of poverty? Does how people cope with poverty (economically, socially, psychologically) make poverty more difficult to escape? High capability deprivation Not investing in PHC, nutrition, primary education can diminish opportunities that can‟t be regained in later life (or by children) Why are people chronically poor? The maintainers and drivers of chronic poverty
  • 15. Why are people chronically poor? The maintainers and drivers of chronic poverty Weak and failed/ing states Desperate deprivation and increased inequality due to: State failure – social protection and services (e.g. education, health) do not operate undermining human capital. Violence, weak rule of law destroys assets and discourages domestic/foreign investment (except for illegal and extractive activities) so that growth is low/ negative and not pro-poor. Low levels of civil and political rights Poor economic policies Weak and failing international system
  • 16. Why are people chronically poor? The maintainers and drivers of chronic poverty Severe, widespread and multiple shocks (driver) along with limited access assets (private/collective) and a weak institutional context including systems of social protection, basic services, conflict prevention and resolution, public information (maintainers) combine to undermine resilience to shocks, driving people into chronic poverty. Property grabbing: No safety net to fall back on after a husband‟s death (driver), and discrimination based on gender and marital status (maintainer) strips away any assets that could be used to bounce back. Malawian famine: Bad weather (a shock), bad policy (a failure of national and international governance), and reduced resilience (due to e.g. HIV/AIDS, poverty-induced asset depeletion) combined to cause hundreds/thousands, of preventable deaths, and has trapped many more „survivors‟ in intractable poverty.
  • 17. What can we do about chronic poverty? Much chronic poverty reduction is about good poverty reduction … Peace-building and conflict prevention HIV/AIDS prevention (especially in India, China and the CIS) and greater access to retroviral treatment (in Africa) Pro-poor, broad-based economic growth Strengthening national and international governance Making trade fair (especially removing northern agricultural protectionism) Effectively managing national indebtedness Slowing down global warming Improving the effectiveness of basic service delivery but it also requires new priorities …
  • 18. How to Address Chronic Poverty? Social protection Public services for the hard to reach Anti-discrimination and gender empowerment
  • 19. What can we do about chronic poverty? Prioritise livelihood security: Increase chronically poor people‟s resistance and resilience to adverse shocks and trends. Social protection policies are crucial in order to interrupt downward trajectories and allow opportunities to be pursued (e.g. non-contributory pensions, insurance, transfers) Focus on preventing and interrupting childhood poverty (e.g. interventions in nutrition/health, education, household security) Focus on preventing ill-health, and descents into chronic poverty caused by ill-health (e.g. curative services for breadwinners and carers)
  • 20. What can we do about chronic poverty? Enhance opportunity: Expand and diversify economic opportunities for chronically poor people by: stimulating broad-based growth (e.g. rural; raised demand for unskilled labour; enhances human capital) making markets work for poor people (esp. labour and food markets), and redistributing material and human assets (e.g. land reform; progressive taxation)
  • 21. What can we do about chronic poverty? Foster empowerment and make rights real Enhance the capacity of those trapped in poverty to influence state institutions that affect their lives. Remove the political, legal, social barriers that work against them. Move beyond rhetoric of participation, decentralisation and rights. Address the difficult political question of how social solidarity can be fostered across households, communities and nations (e.g. monitoring of MDG #8).
  • 22. National agenda Delivering basic services: reduce access barriers; improve service quality; foster demand for services among the chronically poor Delivering social assistance: that can have development as well as relief outcomes requires innovations in targeting, technology, institutions Using PRSs to prioritse the chronically poor International agenda Using MDGs to address chronic poverty Financing chronic poverty reduction: increase aid volume; direct aid to poorest countries, social assistance and basic services; commit to sustained aid What can we do about chronic poverty?
  • 23. Country Classification • Low initial level of welfare • High mortality, fertility, and undernourished • Slow rates of progress over time across available indicators Chronically deprived countries • Low initial level of welfare • Slow rates of progress over time across at least one available indicators Partially chronically deprived countries • Low initial level of welfare • Fast rate of progress over time at least one available indicator • No indicator showing chronic deprivation Partially consistent improvers • Low initial level of welfare • Faster rates of progress over time across all available indicator Consistent Improvers • Neither chronically deprived nor good performers in any four indicator Others