Intelligence Analysis & Deliverables Dr. Elijah Ezendu FIMC, FCIM, FIIAN, FBDI, FAAFM, FAAPM, FCCM, MIMIS, MITD, ACIArb, ACIPM, PhD, DocM, MBA, CWM, CBDA, CMA, MPM, PME, CCIP, CMC

“ More than ever, effectively seeing through or ahead of the competition is an art form (as opposed to a totally rational and structured technique), but one that is very accessible to those willing to learn its tools, techniques, and concepts. There’s a creative aspect to taking gobs of loose data and making sense out of them. Data on the competition does not come in nice, bow-wrapped, hexa-decimal packages that you can digest by spreadsheet, regression analysis, or even a well-written memo. It may appear in the form of a picture, an observation of the active crowd huddled around a trade show booth, the pregnant pause of a speaker on the podium in reaction to a tough question. The observer is the artist here. He or she needs to catch the important clues, piece this image together, and create the precious intelligence.” - Leonard Fuld, The Secret Language of Competitive Intelligence

“ More than ever, effectively seeing through or ahead of the competition is an art form (as opposed to a totally rational and structured technique), but one that is very accessible to those willing to learn its tools, techniques, and concepts. There’s a creative aspect to taking gobs of loose data and making sense out of them. Data on the competition does not come in nice, bow-wrapped, hexa-decimal packages that you can digest by spreadsheet, regression analysis, or even a well-written memo. It may appear in the form of a picture, an observation of the active crowd huddled around a trade show booth, the pregnant pause of a speaker on the podium in reaction to a tough question. The observer is the artist here. He or she needs to catch the important clues, piece this image together, and create the precious intelligence.”

- Leonard Fuld, The Secret Language of Competitive Intelligence

“ Now the reason the enlightened Prince and the wise General conquer the enemy whenever they move, and their achievements surpass those of ordinary men, is foreknowledge” - Sun Tzu

“ Now the reason the enlightened Prince and the wise General conquer the enemy whenever they move, and their achievements surpass those of ordinary men, is foreknowledge”

- Sun Tzu

Intelligence Analysis is a context-specific scheme for assessing data thereby interpreting processes, synthesizing factuality, generating insights and actionable intelligence.

Intelligence Analysis is a context-specific scheme for assessing data thereby interpreting processes, synthesizing factuality, generating insights and actionable intelligence.

“ Success for every business, whether it’s a one-person operation or a Fortune 500 corporation, increasingly depends on a timely awareness by key executives of the rapidly changing events impacting their organizations. Yet in most corporate settings, executives consistently work with massive amounts of raw data, small amounts of value-added information derived from analysis, and very little intelligence. Competitive intelligence reverses this traditional trend toward data and information and redirects it toward actionable intelligence.” - Shaker & Gembicki, The War Room Guide to Competitive Intelligence

“ Success for every business, whether it’s a one-person operation or a Fortune 500 corporation, increasingly depends on a timely awareness by key executives of the rapidly changing events impacting their organizations. Yet in most corporate settings, executives consistently work with massive amounts of raw data, small amounts of value-added information derived from analysis, and very little intelligence. Competitive intelligence reverses this traditional trend toward data and information and redirects it toward actionable intelligence.”

- Shaker & Gembicki, The War Room Guide to Competitive Intelligence

Analysis as a Function of the Larger Intelligent Project Cycle Source: Craig Fleisher & Babette Bensoussan, Business and Competitive Analysis

The Intelligence Path

The Intelligence Path

Data Collection in Intelligence Analysis This is normally a two-phase process well-structured with the aid of Pareto Principle as follows.

Data Collection in Intelligence Analysis

This is normally a two-phase process well-structured with the aid of Pareto Principle as follows.

Secondary Sources of Data Directories Trade Publications Newspapers Federal Office of Statistics Magazines Journals Newsletters Transcripts of Speeches Industry Periodicals Regulatory Filings Government Statements and Reports Annual Reports Analyst Reports Online Databases Vendor’s Promotional Material Press Releases Websites Subscription News Feeds

Secondary Sources of Data

Directories

Trade Publications

Newspapers

Federal Office of Statistics

Magazines

Journals

Newsletters

Transcripts of Speeches

Industry Periodicals

Regulatory Filings

Government Statements and Reports

Annual Reports

Analyst Reports

Online Databases

Vendor’s Promotional Material

Press Releases

Websites

Subscription News Feeds

Primary Sources of Data Observations Marketplace Surveys Interview with Internal Experts, Industry Professionals, Customers, Stockbrokers, Journalists, Suppliers to the Industry, and Sources of Published Reports. Discussion Forums Internet Blog Electronic Chat

Primary Sources of Data

Observations

Marketplace Surveys

Interview with Internal Experts, Industry Professionals, Customers, Stockbrokers, Journalists, Suppliers to the Industry, and Sources of Published Reports.

Discussion Forums

Internet Blog

Electronic Chat

Exploring Web Portals A web portal offers a broad range of services and resources while highlighting information from various locations on the world wide web. Types of portals include the following: Educational Portals Social Portals Management Portals Finance Portals Technology Portals Marketing Portals General Business Portals Scientific Research Portals

Exploring Web Portals

A web portal offers a broad range of services and resources while highlighting information from various locations on the world wide web.

Types of portals include the following:

Educational Portals

Social Portals

Management Portals

Finance Portals

Technology Portals

Marketing Portals

General Business Portals

Scientific Research Portals

Examples of Finance Portals http://www.finweb.com http://www.ameritrade.com http://www.qualisteam.com http://library.advanced.org http://www.nyse.com http://www.moneyfactory.com http://www.financecenter.com http://www.financehub.com http://www.investopedia.com http://www.financial-portal.com

Examples of Finance Portals

http://www.finweb.com

http://www.ameritrade.com

http://www.qualisteam.com

http://library.advanced.org

http://www.nyse.com

http://www.moneyfactory.com

http://www.financecenter.com

http://www.financehub.com

http://www.investopedia.com

http://www.financial-portal.com

Intelligence Weblog Intelligence weblog provides access to information, wherefore users can update, add remark and recommendation based on analysis. It assembles, synthesizes and disseminates the information, while providing opportunity for interaction.

Intelligence Weblog

Intelligence weblog provides access to information, wherefore users can update, add remark and recommendation based on analysis. It assembles, synthesizes and disseminates the information, while providing opportunity for interaction.

Market Blog Process Source: Arik Johnson, Competitive Intelligence Weblogs Frequency: Daily, Semi-Weekly, Monthly 2 nd Sources: XML Newsfeed Subjects: Companies, Markets, Geographies, Behaviours Customers: Ranges from Salesforce to Executive Staff Alert Thresholds: Out-of-Schedule Notifications

Market Blog Process

Search Engines http://www.altavista.com http://www.google.com http://www.looksmart.com http://www.infoseek.com http://www.lycos.com http://www.northernlight.com http://www.iwon.com http://www.askjeeves.com http://www.dmoz.org http://www.msn.com http://www.directhit.com http://www.excite.com http://www.go.com http://www.hotbot.com http://www.yahoo.com http://www.snap.com http://www.webcrawler.com

Search Engines

http://www.altavista.com

http://www.google.com

http://www.looksmart.com

http://www.infoseek.com

http://www.lycos.com

http://www.northernlight.com

http://www.iwon.com

http://www.askjeeves.com

http://www.dmoz.org

http://www.msn.com

http://www.directhit.com

http://www.excite.com

http://www.go.com

http://www.hotbot.com

http://www.yahoo.com

http://www.snap.com

http://www.webcrawler.com

Tasks to be Performed by CI Professionals • Go beyond internet searches: collect from human resources. • Go beyond public databases: collect hard-to-get information (e.g. private firms) from less obvious sources. • Go beyond competitors: analyze whole markets and industries. • Go beyond static analysis and current market statistics: predict change. • Go beyond marketing intelligence: understand finance and cost accounting. • Go beyond marketing, finance, and cost: understand strategy. • Go beyond strategy: understand risk. Source: Ben Gilad, CI Education Harvard Style?

Tasks to be Performed by CI Professionals

• Go beyond internet searches: collect from human resources.

• Go beyond public databases: collect hard-to-get information (e.g. private firms) from less obvious sources.

• Go beyond competitors: analyze whole markets and industries.

• Go beyond static analysis and current market statistics: predict change.

• Go beyond marketing intelligence: understand finance and cost accounting.

• Go beyond marketing, finance, and cost: understand strategy.

• Go beyond strategy: understand risk.

Source: Ben Gilad, CI Education Harvard Style?

Identifying the Problem The Key Intelligence Topics (KIT) proposed by Jan P. Herring Key Intelligence Questions (KIQ)

Identifying the Problem

The Key Intelligence Topics (KIT) proposed by Jan P. Herring

Key Intelligence Questions (KIQ)

Identifying the Right Metrics Analysts must ensure every intelligence analysis is driven by the right metrics. Without the right metrics, the analysis would be derailed. Metrics are key indicators of diagnostic or predictive value.

Identifying the Right Metrics

Analysts must ensure every intelligence analysis is driven by the right metrics.

Without the right metrics, the analysis would be derailed.

Metrics are key indicators of diagnostic or predictive value.

Data Source Evaluation Availability Reliability Accuracy Accessibility

Data Source Evaluation

Availability

Reliability

Accuracy

Accessibility

Identifying Scope of Analysis

Identifying Scope of Analysis

Levels of Intelligence Analysis Strategic Intelligence Analysis Tactical Intelligence Analysis Operational Intelligence Analysis

Levels of Intelligence Analysis

Strategic Intelligence Analysis

Tactical Intelligence Analysis

Operational Intelligence Analysis

Strategic Intelligence Analysis Trend Analysis Opportunity and Threat Analysis Impact Analysis Variance Analysis Competitor Analysis

Strategic Intelligence Analysis

Trend Analysis

Opportunity and Threat Analysis

Impact Analysis

Variance Analysis

Competitor Analysis

Tactical Intelligence Analysis Response Analysis Pattern Analysis Network-Structure Analysis

Tactical Intelligence Analysis

Response Analysis

Pattern Analysis

Network-Structure Analysis

Elements in Analysis Assumptions Perceptions Facts Beliefs Projections Synthesis

Elements in Analysis

Assumptions

Perceptions

Facts

Beliefs

Projections

Synthesis

Causes of Failure in Intelligence Analysis Problem of Technique Bad application of technology tool Error in data collection Synthesis Error Error in identification of Problem Project Mismanagement Miscommunication

Causes of Failure in Intelligence Analysis

Problem of Technique

Bad application of technology tool

Error in data collection

Synthesis Error

Error in identification of Problem

Project Mismanagement

Miscommunication

What are the Information Hazards of Competitive Intelligence Information? The objective of the Competitive Intelligence Program is to gather relevant information that is valid and accurate. Incomplete or inaccurate information may jeopardize the organization's CI efforts. False Confirmation: There might be instances of false confirmation in which one source of data appears to confirm the data obtained from another source. In reality, there is no confirmation because one source may have obtained its data from the second source, or both sources may have received their data from a third common source. Disinformation: The data generated may be flawed because of disinformation, which is incomplete or inaccurate information designed to mislead the organization's CI efforts. Blowback: Blowback may occur when the company's disinformation or misinformation that is directed at the competitor contaminates its own intelligence channels or information. In all such cases, the information gathered may be inaccurate or incomplete. Source: Yogesh Malhotra, Competitive Intelligence Programs

Four-Level Hierarchical Model of Analysis Failures Level Nature of Problem Individual Analyst-Level Failures Analysis Task-Level Failures Internal Organizational-Level Failures External Environmental-Level Failures Different natural analytical abilities Naturally limited mental capacities Natural motivation Cognitive biases and perceptual distortion Insufficient understanding and application of analysis tools and techniques Part of larger task Task discontinuity Unsatisfactory data inputs Disconnects from decision making Imbalance among key task facets Some decision makers don’t understand and appreciate analysis Clients cannot specify their critical intelligence needs or questions Under-resourcing the analysis function Lack of analysis-specific IT support Lack of thinking time Organizational culture and politics Time and trust Invisibility and mystery Misconception that everyone can do analysis Growing range of competitive factors Complexity and turbulence Data overload Globalization Educational deficiencies Source: Craig Fleisher & Babette Bensoussan, Business and Competitive Analysis

Four-Level Hierarchical Model of Analysis Failures

Different natural analytical abilities

Naturally limited mental capacities

Natural motivation

Cognitive biases and perceptual distortion

Insufficient understanding and application of analysis tools and techniques

Part of larger task

Task discontinuity

Unsatisfactory data inputs

Disconnects from decision making

Imbalance among key task facets

Some decision makers don’t understand and appreciate analysis

Clients cannot specify their critical intelligence needs or questions

Under-resourcing the analysis function

Lack of analysis-specific IT support

Lack of thinking time

Organizational culture and politics

Time and trust

Invisibility and mystery

Misconception that everyone can do analysis

Growing range of competitive factors

Complexity and turbulence

Data overload

Globalization

Educational deficiencies

“ The best intelligence in the world is of little use if it is not presented in a manner that makes it credible, compelling and relevant for senior executives.” - Outward Insights

“ The best intelligence in the world is of little use if it is not presented in a manner that makes it credible, compelling and relevant for senior executives.”

- Outward Insights

Key Deliverables of Intelligence Analysis Competitor Profiles Customer Profiles Technology Profiles Supplier Profiles Early Warning Alerts Strategic Impact Reports Situation Analysis Reports Intelligence Newsletter Annual Intelligence Reports Generic Intelligence Reports Due Diligence

Key Deliverables of Intelligence Analysis

Competitor Profiles

Customer Profiles

Technology Profiles

Supplier Profiles

Early Warning Alerts

Strategic Impact Reports

Situation Analysis Reports

Intelligence Newsletter

Annual Intelligence Reports

Generic Intelligence Reports

Due Diligence

Ten Commandments of Competitive Intelligence 1. Do not lie when representing yourself. 2. Observe your company’s legal guidelines. 3. Do not secretly record an interview if it is against the law. 4. Do not issue a bribe. 5. Do not use eavesdropping devices. 6. Do not mislead anyone in an interview. 7. Do not swap price information or capacity with a competing company. 8. Do not distribute or exchange misinformation. 9. Do not steal a trade secret. 10. Do not knowingly pump someone for information that could sacrifice that person’s job or reputation. Source: Fuld and Company

Ten Commandments of Competitive Intelligence

1. Do not lie when representing yourself.

2. Observe your company’s legal guidelines.

3. Do not secretly record an interview if it is against the law.

4. Do not issue a bribe.

5. Do not use eavesdropping devices.

6. Do not mislead anyone in an interview.

7. Do not swap price information or capacity with a competing company.

8. Do not distribute or exchange misinformation.

9. Do not steal a trade secret.

10. Do not knowingly pump someone for information that could sacrifice that person’s job or reputation.

Source: Fuld and Company

Dr. Elijah Ezendu is a multidisciplinary professional whose business experience mounts through diverse fields. He is a Certified Management Consultant, licensed by International Council of Management Consulting Institutes which has a Special Consultative Status in United Nations Economic and Social Council. As a result of his strides in management consulting, he received Merit Award for Excellence in Consulting. He is concurrently Senior Partner, Shevach Consulting; Director of Strategy and Performance, Fortuna; Lead Assessor and Member of Governing Council, Institute of Management Consultants; Director of Training, International Council of Business Development Professionals; Member of Marketing Committee, International Council of Management Consulting Institutes; Honorary Global Advisor, International Project Management Commission; and Programme Coordinator (Nigeria), Regent Business School, South Africa. He holds a doctoral degree in Management from St. Clements University, British West Indies. He is a Chartered Manager certified by Canadian Institute of Management, Canada and holds numerous professional qualifications including Master Project Manager; Project Manager E-Business; Fellow, Institute of Management Consultants; Fellow, Certified Institute of Cost Management; Fellow, Institute of Business Development; Fellow, American Academy of Financial Management; Fellow, Institute of Internal Auditors; Member, Nigerian Institute of Training and Development; Member, Institute of Analytics Professionals; Associate, Chartered Institute of Personnel Management of Nigeria; Associate, Chartered Institute of Arbitrators (Nigeria). He is a Certified Business Development Analyst and Competitive Intelligence Professional. Additionally, he is an information technology management professional certified by Institute for the Management of Information Systems, UK along with Microsoft Corporation, USA and stands as a Member of International Association of Software Architects. He is an outstanding motivational speaker with a knack for recalibration of positive influence; and a world-class consultant, who has functioned as Speaker/Facilitator at myriad programmes of professional institutes, international development organisations, private and public firms including extra-governmental agencies and institutions. He is a prolific writer and author who had served as Editor-in-Chief, Cost Management Journal; Part-Time Lecturer & External Examiner (MBA Programme), Ladoke Akintola University of Technology; Director of MBA Programme (Nigerian Outreach), Management Institute of Canada; Chief Operating Officer, Rohan Marine; Second Vice President and Member of Governing Council, Certified Institute of Cost Management; Director of Programmes and Member of Governing Council, The Institute of Business Development; Director, Refined Shipping; and Examiner to various Professional Institutes.

Dr. Elijah Ezendu is a multidisciplinary professional whose business experience mounts through diverse fields. He is a Certified Management Consultant, licensed by International Council of Management Consulting Institutes which has a Special Consultative Status in United Nations Economic and Social Council. As a result of his strides in management consulting, he received Merit Award for Excellence in Consulting. He is concurrently Senior Partner, Shevach Consulting; Director of Strategy and Performance, Fortuna; Lead Assessor and Member of Governing Council, Institute of Management Consultants; Director of Training, International Council of Business Development Professionals; Member of Marketing Committee, International Council of Management Consulting Institutes; Honorary Global Advisor, International Project Management Commission; and Programme Coordinator (Nigeria), Regent Business School, South Africa. He holds a doctoral degree in Management from St. Clements University, British West Indies. He is a Chartered Manager certified by Canadian Institute of Management, Canada and holds numerous professional qualifications including Master Project Manager; Project Manager E-Business; Fellow, Institute of Management Consultants; Fellow, Certified Institute of Cost Management; Fellow, Institute of Business Development; Fellow, American Academy of Financial Management; Fellow, Institute of Internal Auditors; Member, Nigerian Institute of Training and Development; Member, Institute of Analytics Professionals; Associate, Chartered Institute of Personnel Management of Nigeria; Associate, Chartered Institute of Arbitrators (Nigeria). He is a Certified Business Development Analyst and Competitive Intelligence Professional. Additionally, he is an information technology management professional certified by Institute for the Management of Information Systems, UK along with Microsoft Corporation, USA and stands as a Member of International Association of Software Architects. He is an outstanding motivational speaker with a knack for recalibration of positive influence; and a world-class consultant, who has functioned as Speaker/Facilitator at myriad programmes of professional institutes, international development organisations, private and public firms including extra-governmental agencies and institutions. He is a prolific writer and author who had served as Editor-in-Chief, Cost Management Journal; Part-Time Lecturer & External Examiner (MBA Programme), Ladoke Akintola University of Technology; Director of MBA Programme (Nigerian Outreach), Management Institute of Canada; Chief Operating Officer, Rohan Marine; Second Vice President and Member of Governing Council, Certified Institute of Cost Management; Director of Programmes and Member of Governing Council, The Institute of Business Development; Director, Refined Shipping; and Examiner to various Professional Institutes.

Thank You Dr. Elijah Ezendu elezendu@yahoo.com, 234 8033024596, 234 8058835237