0
China's Development Challenges Christopher A. McNally Research Program East-West Center January 2008
Overview <ul><li>Sino-Capitalism </li></ul><ul><li>Economics, Geopolitics and Ecology </li></ul><ul><li>The Quandaries of ...
Sino-Capitalism <ul><li>P olitical economy perspective </li></ul><ul><li>Sino-capitalism – a global capitalist system that...
Sino-Capitalism Incomplete Transition and Imprints of History <ul><li>China’s transition in its internal political economy...
China’s Imperial Political Economy Tributary State Small-scale Merchant Capital $1 25 ¢ $1 50 ¢ $1
Sino-Capitalism Networked Character <ul><li>A  highly networked system that gives Chinese firms enormous flexibility and g...
Sino-Capitalism State-dominated Capitalism <ul><li>The capitalist logic of China’s development is being harnessed for the ...
Sino-Capitalism Globalization <ul><li>China is already a large contributor to world GDP growth –  A new motor for the worl...
Sino-Capitalism Size and Speed <ul><li>Never has the world seen such an important political economy rise within such a sho...
Capitalism versus Capitalism <ul><li>This is not “THE CHINA THREAT” but rather frictions generated by  Capitalism vs. Capi...
The Geopolitical Equation <ul><li>The geopolitical dimension, in which both systems will vie to govern the global politica...
Ecology
Ecology <ul><li>The large and rapid developmental processes unfolding in China raise the specter of accelerating environme...
Ecology <ul><li>China’s environmental crisis </li></ul><ul><li>Water – Pollution and shortage </li></ul><ul><li>Air – Poll...
 
 
 
 
Ecology  Development Overpowers the Environment <ul><li>Economic growth is “China’s state religion” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Th...
The Quandaries of China’s Rise <ul><li>Domestic challenges  produced by China’s capitalist transition: </li></ul><ul><li>W...
The Quandaries of China’s Rise  Governance Capacity <ul><li>Bad capacity to govern over a broad range of issues on a day-t...
 
The Quandaries of China’s Rise <ul><li>Three external challenges: </li></ul><ul><li>The influence of China’s political eco...
The China Quandary <ul><li>The fundamental questions: </li></ul><ul><li>As Sino-capitalism becomes a new force in the glob...
Thank You! 谢谢
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

2008 Bangkok Chinas Dev Challenges Jan 22

1,139

Published on

Chris McNally's China presentation to the EastWest Center's Bangkok Media Conference

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,139
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
48
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "2008 Bangkok Chinas Dev Challenges Jan 22"

  1. 1. China's Development Challenges Christopher A. McNally Research Program East-West Center January 2008
  2. 2. Overview <ul><li>Sino-Capitalism </li></ul><ul><li>Economics, Geopolitics and Ecology </li></ul><ul><li>The Quandaries of China’s Rise </li></ul>
  3. 3. Sino-Capitalism <ul><li>P olitical economy perspective </li></ul><ul><li>Sino-capitalism – a global capitalist system that differs from Anglo-American capitalism in important respects </li></ul><ul><li>Sino-capitalism relies on informal business networks rather than on legal codes and transparent rules </li></ul><ul><li>Sino-capitalism also assigns the Chinese state a leading role in fostering and guiding capitalist accumulation </li></ul>
  4. 4. Sino-Capitalism Incomplete Transition and Imprints of History <ul><li>China’s transition in its internal political economy remains incomplete  the maturing of capitalism </li></ul><ul><ul><li>China still posses insufficient legal and institutional certainty </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dominant state // subservient capital and middle classes  no separate sphere of the “economy” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Some historical parallels to China’s imperial political economy during the late Song to Qing dynasties </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. China’s Imperial Political Economy Tributary State Small-scale Merchant Capital $1 25 ¢ $1 50 ¢ $1
  6. 6. Sino-Capitalism Networked Character <ul><li>A highly networked system that gives Chinese firms enormous flexibility and global reach </li></ul><ul><li>Guanxi and common Chinese cultural norms support these networks, though the network character comes in many forms and shapes (e.g., some integration with high-tech networks in US and Taiwan in the Silicon Valley – Hsinchu – Kunshan Triangle) </li></ul>
  7. 7. Sino-Capitalism State-dominated Capitalism <ul><li>The capitalist logic of China’s development is being harnessed for the purposes of greater CCP legitimacy (for the time being) </li></ul><ul><li>PATH-DEPENDENCY: State dominant nature of China’s capitalism will remain for the foreseeable future! </li></ul><ul><li>In other words, if China’s present political economy is sustained, it implies a state-sponsored form of capitalism. </li></ul>
  8. 8. Sino-Capitalism Globalization <ul><li>China is already a large contributor to world GDP growth – A new motor for the world economy! </li></ul><ul><li>China and the West are truly in the same bed of globalization: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>West: Low inflation // high corporate profits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China: Growing trade, technological sophistication, and rapid capital accumulation (for example, China’s foreign reserves of 1.45 trillion USD in Oct 2007) </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Sino-Capitalism Size and Speed <ul><li>Never has the world seen such an important political economy rise within such a short time span with such global influence </li></ul><ul><li>1.3 billion people  1/5 of humanity </li></ul><ul><li>China is already a major economic player at an early stage in her capitalist transition </li></ul><ul><li>China’s global economic influence is substantial and could shake the global economic system </li></ul>
  10. 10. Capitalism versus Capitalism <ul><li>This is not “THE CHINA THREAT” but rather frictions generated by Capitalism vs. Capitalism </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Major conflicts between China and her major trading partners are brewing: </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Problems in China’s legal system and governance capacity on the local level </li></ul><ul><li>Different business ethics </li></ul><ul><li>Role of the state in China’s political economy </li></ul><ul><li>MOST IMPORTANTLY: International currency policy, especially the value of the RMB/CYN </li></ul>
  11. 11. The Geopolitical Equation <ul><li>The geopolitical dimension, in which both systems will vie to govern the global political economy, promises to be contentious as China’s power increases </li></ul><ul><li>Q: Can East Asia absorb China’s rising power? </li></ul><ul><li>Q: What is the future role of the United States and Japan in Asia? </li></ul><ul><li>Q: How will China assure its access to Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs)? </li></ul>
  12. 12. Ecology
  13. 13. Ecology <ul><li>The large and rapid developmental processes unfolding in China raise the specter of accelerating environmental degradation </li></ul><ul><li>Major ecological dilemmas loom if China continues to develop as she has and follows in the footsteps of other capitalist developers  increasing scarcity of certain global resources and massive impact on global ecology </li></ul>
  14. 14. Ecology <ul><li>China’s environmental crisis </li></ul><ul><li>Water – Pollution and shortage </li></ul><ul><li>Air – Pollution </li></ul><ul><li>Land (vegetation and soil) – Degradation and desertification </li></ul><ul><li>Greenhouse gases (CO 2 , etc.)  reliance on coal! </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Immediate human cost (health, economic & livelihood) </li></ul><ul><li>Long-term ecological damage </li></ul><ul><li>Global implications, especially re global climate change </li></ul>
  15. 19. Ecology Development Overpowers the Environment <ul><li>Economic growth is “China’s state religion” </li></ul><ul><li>“ The CCP is addicted to economic growth” </li></ul><ul><li>“ GDP growth mania” </li></ul>
  16. 20. The Quandaries of China’s Rise <ul><li>Domestic challenges produced by China’s capitalist transition: </li></ul><ul><li>Widening income gaps (and the perception thereof) </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental degradation </li></ul><ul><li>Corruption and bad governance </li></ul><ul><li> Political will to complete the transition in the political realm (lack of constitutionalism)?? </li></ul>
  17. 21. The Quandaries of China’s Rise Governance Capacity <ul><li>Bad capacity to govern over a broad range of issues on a day-to-day basis </li></ul><ul><li>Insufficient feed-back loops and no checks on the CCP’s absolute power! </li></ul><ul><li>BUT: Enormous capacity to mobilize resources short-term: e.g., SARS campaign; smuggling campaign (in 1997/1998); reforestation campaign </li></ul>
  18. 23. The Quandaries of China’s Rise <ul><li>Three external challenges: </li></ul><ul><li>The influence of China’s political economy on the rest of the world  international economic management will be more complicated, necessitating a new institutional architecture </li></ul><ul><li>Rising specter of politico-military conflict between the US and China  possibility of another round of great power struggles, be it a “cold” or “hot” war </li></ul><ul><li>China’s ecological impact  China becoming the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter with massive implications for global climate change </li></ul>
  19. 24. The China Quandary <ul><li>The fundamental questions: </li></ul><ul><li>As Sino-capitalism becomes a new force in the global system to be reckoned with, can the world’s established powers adjust and adapt? </li></ul><ul><li>Can new leadership and management models be developed that can address the globe’s major challenges in the 21st century? </li></ul><ul><li>Ideally, the US and China should face their differences and work towards a mature partnership of equals that contributes to global management. </li></ul>
  20. 25. Thank You! 谢谢
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×