Zevenbergen Inaugural
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Zevenbergen Inaugural

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Lecture by Nigel Wright during seminar for Chris Zevenbergen's Inaugural Address.

Lecture by Nigel Wright during seminar for Chris Zevenbergen's Inaugural Address.

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    Zevenbergen Inaugural Zevenbergen Inaugural Presentation Transcript

    • Postgraduate Education, Training and Capacity Building in Water, Environment and Infrastructure
    • Adapting to Change Nigel Wright Professor of Hydraulic Engineering and River Basin Development UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education
    • What will change?
      • Climate change
      • Urbanisation
      • Globalisation vs. stakeholder participation
      • New technologies
    • Adaptability
      • Change is nothing new - we have always had to change.
      • However, this change comes with increasing uncertainty:
        • What is the size of the danger we are adapting to?
      • Will a new defence need to deal with 30cm or 2m of sea level rise?
    • Resilience
      • Gerard Doornbos, Hoogheemraadschap van Rijnland, September 2007:
          • “ The Netherlands is a very safe place…
          • until there is a flood”.
    •  
    • Flooding in the UK July 2007
      • 400,000 without water.
      • 15,000 without electricity.
    • Must include uncertainty in our designs
      • We can establish the best design for 0.5m sea level rise.
      • However, what if the prediction is 0.25-1.0m sea level rise?
      • The solution must have future adaptability built in.
    • Hall & Hine, IAHR 2007
    • Hall & Hine, IAHR 2007
    • Public perception We cannot deliver certainties as before. Flooding will happen, particularly with localised urban flooding due to more extreme rainfall events. A policy of keeping our feet dry at all costs is no longer feasible. Must emphasise that whilst we can alleviate we cannot prevent.
    • Learn from developing countries
      • In the absence of money to invest in primary defences, developing countries have had to adapt.
      • Cyclone Shelters.
      • Resilient construction.
      • Working at a local scale.
    • Modelling opportunity/challenges
      • Remotely sensed data
      • Urban cases:
        • Sub-surface/surface interaction;
        • Building representation.
      • Multiple simulations for uncertainty and risk analysis.
      • Continuous simulations.
    • Multiple simulations
      • There is no one model for all cases.
      • To assess flood risk we must simulate different failure modes at multiple failure points in the system.
      • This points two ways: simpler models and greater use of computer power.
    • Combining data sources LiDAR/map-based data
    •  
    • Urban
    • Multiple simulations
      • There is no one model for all cases.
      • To assess flood risk we must simulate different failure modes at multiple failure points in the system.
      • This points two ways: simpler models and greater use of computer power.
    • Simpler models
      • GIS-based models.
      • Raster-based cell storage models.
    • Parallelisation Massively-parallel systems based on PC architecture (1000+ processors). or Cheaper multi-core systems.
    • Carlisle 2005, Env. Agency:
    • Carlisle simulation
      • LiDAR data at 1m.
      • Solution with 5 million cells.
      • Originally on HPC, but now on multi-core PCs.
      • Used to inform coarser resolution models.
    •  
    • 115 Km reach, 53.5Km upstream of junction, 62 Kms downstream Surface of Km2 36 processors dl = 50 m
    • Key figures
      • 400-700 m inmediate ice dam collapse
      • 9 -18 M cumecs peak
      • 1D wave heights of 250 m
      • 1D wave speeds of 45 m/s
      • 1D Froude number of 3.5
      • 1D Xs every 300 m, 2D dl=50 m
    • Summary
      • Adaptability to future uncertainty must be built in.
      • Risk management not defence.
      • Learn from others.
      • Innovate with technologies.
    • Thank You! Questions and remarks