Skype launched the mid-2003. What happens to Skype between its tenth birthday in 2013 (now) and 2023, ten years from now? Assuming things go mostly well for Skype... this is an optimistic scenario, with Skype responding well to external opportunities and threats, building new strengths, minimizing its weaknesses.
- More China.
- More Africa.
- More regulation.
- More mobile.
- More wearables, augmented reality, virtual reality, 3D printing.
- More technologies that let anyone build their own Skype-like network (WebRTC, Open Peer in 2013, for instance)
Black Swans I left out:
- Major economic disruptions or restructuring
- Microsoft is no longer a healthy, growing company
- US, Europe, & China less stable, perhaps with war in their homelands.
- The Internet and web become ill and stop growing (perhaps abandoned when severely damaged in cyberwar or made irrelevant as something better comes along)
- People talk less digitally (plague drives people to face-to-face interaction).