eBay investor briefing at Lehman Brothers Conference, December 2007

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    eBay investor briefing at Lehman Brothers Conference, December 2007 - Presentation Transcript

    1. Lehman Brothers Conference December 5, 2007 ®
    2. This presentation contains non-GAAP measures relating to the company's performance. You can find the reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures in the tables of our earnings release which is available through our investor relations website located at http://investor.ebay.com/downloads/Reconciliation.pdf. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements regarding matters that involve risk and uncertainty, including those relating to the company’s ability to grow its businesses, user base and user activity. Our actual results may differ materially from those discussed for a variety of reasons, including our increasing need in established markets to grow revenues from existing users as well as from new users; an increasingly competitive e-commerce environment; the complexity of managing a growing company with a broad range of businesses; the impact of the company’s recently announced pricing and product changes; regulatory, tax, and litigation risks (including financial industry risks specific to PayPal and risks specific to Skype’s technology and to the VoIP industry); our need to upgrade our technology and customer service infrastructure to accommodate growth at reasonable cost while adding new features and maintaining site stability; our need to successfully extend our platforms to new countries and new types of merchandise and sellers; foreign-exchange-rate fluctuations; and the impact and integration of recent and future acquisitions. You can find more information about factors that could affect our results in our annual report on our Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q (available at http://investor.ebay.com). You should not unduly rely on any forward-looking statements, and we assume no obligation to update them. ® 2 eBay Inc. - Proprietary & Confidential
    3. EBAY Investment Thesis • Great portfolio of businesses… • The leading position in 3 of the main activity areas online – Buy, Pay, Communicate • Strong growth characteristics • Inherent synergies within and across business units • Strong financial model … demonstrated track record • Financial capacity and flexibility to… • Reinvest for growth • Opportunistically reduce outstanding shares • In 2008, we will capitalize on our current momentum … while accelerating investments to defend and extend our leadership positions ® 3 eBay Inc. - Proprietary & Confidential
    4. Great portfolio of businesses Buy Pay Communicate Marketplaces Payments Communications craigslist
    5. Strong top line growth 45% $7.60-$7.65 CAGR* Q4 Guidance $5.97 $2.10 B - $2.15 B (in billions) $4.55 $3.27 Q1 – Q3 Actual $2.17 $5.49 B $1.21 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E Y/Y Revenue 62% 78% 51% 39% 31% 28%* Growth *CAGR and growth rate for 2007 based on midpoint of guidance range.
    6. Excellent non-GAAP EPS growth 46% $1.47-$1.49 CAGR* Q4 Guidance $0.39 - $0.41 $1.05 $0.86 $0.61 Q1 – Q3 Actual $1.09 $0.38 $0.22 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E Y/Y EPS 78% 73% 61% 42% 21% 41% Growth *CAGR and growth rate for 2007 based on midpoint of guidance range.
    7. Strong free cash flow growth 43% $2.05 $2.05 CAGR $1.7 $1.73 Q4 Implied Guidance $1.6 $1.57 $0.53 B (in billions) $1.0 $0.99 Q1 – Q3 Actual $1.52 B $.5 $0.51 $.3 $0.34 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E Y/Y FCF 75% 49% 95% 59% 10% 18% Growth
    8. Large and growing marketplaces business $3.9B YTD 25% Y/Y $4.3B 53% CAGR Other MP Revenue • 38 global markets eBay Fixed Price Other** Revenue Fixed Price* • $57.6B GMV (TTM) Auctions* eBay Auction • 6M daily new listings $0.2B Revenue • 248M confirmed registered users 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 * As of October 17, 2007
    9. …Significant opportunities for growth GMV + Beyond GMV • Buyer experience • New formats improvements • New monetization models • Improve Trust & Safety • Price elasticity testing
    10. GMV growth $43B YTD $52B 13% Y/Y 52% CAGR $3B 1999 2006
    11. Listening to buyers feedback … We asked our buyers: “What one thing would you suggest that eBay focus on?” Shipping Feedback Ease of Use Trust & Safety Conflict Resolution Source: eBay Global User Satisfaction Study (US Data)—July 2006
    12. TnS: Feedback/Shipping • Implemented Feedback 2.0 • Actionable data on seller quality # Selling ATOs (000s) (Detailed Seller Ratings) • Focus on Reducing Phishing Scams • Enforcement of Seller Non Performance • Anti-Counterfeit Efforts
    13. Ease of use New Home Page Visual Search Best Match (launched in Sept 07) (launched in Sept 07) (launched in Oct 06) Bid Assistant Next Gen Checkout Next Gen My eBay (launched in May 07) (launched in Oct 07) (launched in Oct 07)
    14. Improve conflict resolution For Buyers: For Sellers: • Top buyer account • Top seller account management management • Expanded CS offerings for all • Increased CS accessibility PowerSellers • Expanded buyer purchase • Opened PowerSeller program to protection programs include high unit volume sellers • Stronger proactive education on good buying experiences Combined CS organization … improved end-to-end experience
    15. Price elasticity testing Types of Pricing Promotions What are we trying to learn? Final Value Fees Elasticity of Supply and Demand... –Impact on quality of inventory Insertion Fees –Abundance and velocity of trade Gallery Photos –Longer term impact on buyers and sellers Bundles {i.e Insertion Fee + Gallery –Impact of fee structure on sellers … Photo Fee} risk/reward tradeoff Category Specific
    16. Beyond GMV … diversified revenue streams Classifieds Advertising** Shopping.com 106% 114% 29% 2006* 2007* 2006* 2007* 2006* 2007* *All data is YTD through Q3 **Advertising excludes “Other revenue”
    17. Enabling the world’s conversations • Strong brand • Great product • Global reach • Thriving ecosystem
    18. Enabling the world’s conversations 96% Y/Y growth • 246M registered users $98 Revenue (M) • 10M+ peak online users • 3B+ monthly call minutes • 4.4% of total international long distance minutes* • 28 languages and nearly every country Q405 Q307 * 2006 Telegeography
    19. PayPal vision The world’s favorite way to pay and be paid
    20. Why buyers love PayPal SAFE “Shop without sharing” Buyer protection SIMPLE Easy account set up “Express checkout” on the Internet Transactions take a few seconds
    21. Why merchants love PayPal EASY TO USE all-in-one solution immediate account setup INCREASED SALES offering PayPal drives incremental revenues COST EFFECTIVE simple bundled pricing lower processing cost than the competition fewer fraudulent transactions
    22. The “digitization of currency”? 60 Check 50 40 Credit percent 30 Cash Debit 20 Electronic 10 Prepaid 0 1990 2000 2010 payment volume by type (US) source: Nilson Report (reflects total economy; electronic payments represent ACH and check conversion)
    23. Strategically advantaged • superior value proposition – consumers: safe and simple – merchants: lower cost & incremental sales Inc • customer acquisition • global payments platform • anti-fraud capabilities and data ACH • funding mix advantage • large merchant and consumer base
    24. PayPal a powerful payments brand Q1 2007 PayPal “brand tracker” of a representative sample of US online shoppers: Awareness* Usage** Preference Aided Past 3 months “prefer” 99% 67% 29% 98% 37% 12% 88% 33% 17% 96% 12% 8% 21% 1% 1%
    25. Strong account and revenue growth PayPal accounts Revenue growth rates Merchant services 34% yoy 164 M 61% 160 growth 140 120 100 On-eBay 80 60 17% 40 20 0 04 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 7 3 5 7 3 4 4 6 3 3 40 0 0 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 30 0 0 10 20 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 1 4 2 1 3 2 4 3 2 1 4 1 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Other facts for Q3: • $46.3B TPV (prior 12 months) • 177M transactions in Q3 • ~$3B in stored balances
    26. Large and diversifying revenue base $1.4B YTD Global revenues 33% Y/Y $1.4B 49% CAGR Merchant Services $0.4B On eBay 2003 2004 2005 2006
    27. Goal: win e-commerce payments PREFERENCE PRESENCE
    28. Clear pathway to success beyond payments other eBay marketplaces on the web on eBay
    29. On eBay Total Payment Volume ($B) Q307 $6.8B 18% Y/Y $24.5 $4.3 2002 2006 Global penetration 32% 40% 47% 53% 57% 61% in Q307
    30. On eBay: key tactics Checkout Localized sites Expanded to 190 countries and 17 currencies Global service
    31. On the web: Merchant Services Q307 $5.4B 61%Y/Y Total Payment Volume ($B) $13.3 $2.7 2002 2006
    32. On the web: segmented strategy number volume share large medium small
    33. On the web: key tactics Product universal checkout Marketing Sales & Distribution
    34. On the web: large merchant integration
    35. Other eBay marketplaces ~$10B un-penetrated opportunity .de
    36. Beyond: innovating for the future • PayPal PayLater • Send money via Skype • PayPal Plug-In • PayPal labs • PayPal Mobile WAP
    37. PayLater PayLater: No payments for 90 days available with PayPal Credit point-of-sale credit
    38. Send money via Skype
    39. PayPal Plug-in for toolbars Consumers can use PayPal to form-fill & pay securely on any e-commerce merchant – even if they don’t accept PayPal yet
    40. PayPal Labs MySpace: fundraising badge Facebook: fundraising badge
    41. Clear pathway to success beyond payments other eBay marketplaces on the web on eBay
    42. eBay Inc looking forward… Momentum Headwinds • Core eBay • Competitive environment • Product/ TnS/ Pricing learnings intensifying • Need to do more/better/faster • Strong growth trajectory • PayPal Merchant Services • Business mix • Skype • Lower- margin businesses growing fastest • New formats / monetization • Accelerating investments continue to gain momentum • PayPal MS – build ubiquity • Classifieds • PayLater – accelerate adoption • Advertising • Skype – more user • StubHub engagement • Leverage / productivity ? Unknowns ? • Q4 Holiday Season • ’08 Economic Environment • FX
    43. Summary • Great portfolio of businesses: Buy, Pay and Communicate • Focused on execution • Strong financial model … demonstrated track record • Great opportunities in 2008 and beyond

    + evanwolfevanwolf, 2 years ago

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    5 December 2007

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