Free Webinar - 17 July 2013 -1-2pm
Please turn up your computer speakers or put on your
headset
You can ask questions in w...
Free Webinar – 17 July 2013 -1-2pm
Please turn up your computer speakers or put on your
headset
You can ask questions in w...
ABOUT THE WEBINAR
SERIES
1
EU Lobbying, Ethics &
Transparency: "Do"-s and
"Don't"-s
Risk Regulation in the
EU: Sectors, Advocacy
and the Precautionar...
GOOD TO KNOW
2
Turn off your Outlook, Skype and other programs
Ask via chat in the bottom left chat box
Questions will be answered during...
SPEAKER & ORGANISER
3
SPEAKER
David Earnshaw
CEO of Burson-Marsteller
EU Public Affairs Forecast until June
2014: What to expect until the end
o...
SPEAKER MODERATOR
David Earnshaw András BANETH
CEO of Burson-Marsteller Director – European Training Academy
EU Public Aff...
1-day EU training workshops on
lobbying, communication &
decision-making
THE PRESENTATION
4
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014:
What to expect unti...
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Contents
• The timeline
• The positions
• The process the jigsa...
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Last EP
plenary
session
European
political
parties
nominate
Pre...
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The positions to fill in 2014
• 751 Members of the European Par...
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The process
Article 17 TFEU
7. Taking into account the election...
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The process - continued
Declaration 11 on Article 17(6) and (7)...
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The people: Commission President
(with current positions)
• EPP...
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The incoming Commission President
• Likely to be selected throu...
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Other people, other positions?
• Radek Sikorski – VPHR (but Eas...
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Already intense campaigning – even for positions on lists
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Some other issues
• Primaries (2019?) - but note Green initiati...
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
THANK YOU!
If you have further questions, you can contact
David...
EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What   to expect until the end of Barroso II and   beyond?
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EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond?

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The European Commission 2010 2014 – a retrospective
The potential democratic (r)evolution of 2014 – election parties, programmes and personalities
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EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond?

  1. 1. Free Webinar - 17 July 2013 -1-2pm Please turn up your computer speakers or put on your headset You can ask questions in writing in the chat panel EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond?
  2. 2. Free Webinar – 17 July 2013 -1-2pm Please turn up your computer speakers or put on your headset You can ask questions in writing in the chat panel WELCOME to the 7th FREE webinar
  3. 3. ABOUT THE WEBINAR SERIES 1
  4. 4. EU Lobbying, Ethics & Transparency: "Do"-s and "Don't"-s Risk Regulation in the EU: Sectors, Advocacy and the Precautionary Principle Regulatory Affairs Explained: What you must know about implementing & delegated acts How to Master EU Interest Representation: The BM guide to EU lobbying best practices 7 Tips for Effective EU Public Affairs: Practical ideas to reach the highest impact for your issue Digital Communication in EU Affairs: How to master Twitter, Linkedin & social media in public affairs EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond?
  5. 5. GOOD TO KNOW 2
  6. 6. Turn off your Outlook, Skype and other programs Ask via chat in the bottom left chat box Questions will be answered during & after the presentation Presentation will take approx. 40 mins, followed by Q&A The webinar is being RECORDED Recording & PPT will be made available within 3 days Transcript will be available within 1 week
  7. 7. SPEAKER & ORGANISER 3
  8. 8. SPEAKER David Earnshaw CEO of Burson-Marsteller EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond?
  9. 9. SPEAKER MODERATOR David Earnshaw András BANETH CEO of Burson-Marsteller Director – European Training Academy EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond?
  10. 10. 1-day EU training workshops on lobbying, communication & decision-making
  11. 11. THE PRESENTATION 4
  12. 12. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond? European Training Academy, 17.07.2013 David Earnshaw
  13. 13. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS Contents • The timeline • The positions • The process the jigsaw puzzle • The people • Some other issues
  14. 14. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
  15. 15. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS Last EP plenary session European political parties nominate Presidential candidates FEBRUARY 2014 23/24 April 2014 22-25 MAY 2 JUNE – 26 JUNE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS PENTECOST 5-9 JUNE 22/9/2013 GERMAN ELECTION ASCENSION 26-30 MAY Constituent meetings of EP party groups 1-3 JULY EP Constituent session (election of EP officer- holders) 26-27 JUNE EUROPEAN COUNCIL Nomination of Commission President 14-17 JULY 15-18/9/2014 EP Session: Election of Commission President EP plenary session 01/9/2014 CONFIRMATION HEARINGS OF COMMISSIONERS- DESIGNATE OCTOBER 2014 October plenary: investiture of Commission, 2014-2019 1/11/2014 - 2019 2014-2019 Commission enters office 1/12/2014 New President of European Council enters office Note: other first semester 2014 plenaries: 13-16/1, 3-6/2, 19-20/2, 10-13/3, 24-27/3, 7-10/4 European Youth Event (9/5 Strasbourg)
  16. 16. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS The positions to fill in 2014 • 751 Members of the European Parliament • President of the European Commission • 27 Commissioners • President of the European Council (1 December 2014) • President of the European Parliament (x 2) • Permanent President of Eurozone • 20 EP Committee chairs • 14 EP Vice Presidents • Political Group leaders • Secretary General of Commission? EP? (Klaus Welle for EU Delegation, Washington DC?) • President of 2015 Constitutional Convention • Non-EU positions: NATO and UN secretaries general
  17. 17. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS The process Article 17 TFEU 7. Taking into account the elections to the European Parliament and after having held the appropriate consultations, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall propose to the European Parliament a candidate for President of the Commission. This candidate shall be elected by the European Parliament by a majority of its component members. If he does not obtain the required majority, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall within one month propose a new candidate who shall be elected by the European Parliament following the same procedure. The Council, by common accord with the President-elect, shall adopt the list of the other persons whom it proposes for appointment as members of the Commission. They shall be selected, on the basis of the suggestions made by Member States, in accordance with the criteria set out in paragraph 3, second subparagraph, and paragraph 5, second subparagraph. The President, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and the other members of the Commission shall be subject as a body to a vote of consent by the European Parliament. On the basis of this consent the Commission shall be appointed by the European Council, acting by a qualified majority.
  18. 18. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS The process - continued Declaration 11 on Article 17(6) and (7)of the Treaty on European Union The Conference considers that, in accordance with the provisions of the Treaties, the European Parliament and the European Council are jointly responsible for the smooth running of the process leading to the election of the President of the European Commission. Prior to the decision of the European Council, representatives of the European Parliament and of the European Council will thus conduct the necessary consultations in the framework deemed the most appropriate. These consultations will focus on the backgrounds of the candidates for President of the Commission, taking account of the elections to the European Parliament, in accordance with the first subparagraph of Article 17(7). The arrangements for such consultations may be determined, in due course, by common accord between the European Parliament and the European Council.
  19. 19. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS The people: Commission President (with current positions) • EPP – Enda Kenny, Taoiseach, Ireland – Vivian Reding, Vice President European Commission – Donald Tusk, PM Poland (ruled himself out 10 June 2013) – Jyrki Katainen, PM Finland – Fredrik Reinfeldt, PM Sweden – Dalia Grybauskaitė, President Lithuania – President Barroso • PES – Martin Schultz, President European Parliament – Helle Thorning-Schmitt, PM Denmark – José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero – currently no major position – Pascal Lamy, ex- DG, WTO • ALDE – Guy Verhofstadt, MEP leader ALDE, EP – Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO Secretary General
  20. 20. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS The incoming Commission President • Likely to be selected through a party-based and not ‘member state’ focused negotiation (note Cathy Ashton precedent already, in 2009) • Parliamentary majority will be critical • Will be in strong position to negotiate team with PMs • A more partisan College? • Will unsuccessful candidates seek parliamentary Presidency? • Will incoming President insist on team with gender balance? Ex-MEPs? Reding: “all EU commissioners should be elected to the EP first before being appointed to the Commission” • Portfolios? Reform of Directorates General structure?
  21. 21. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS Other people, other positions? • Radek Sikorski – VPHR (but Eastern European needed for Ban-Ki Moon job) • Carl Bildt (Swedish Foreign Minister) • Kristina Georgiva (Bulgaria – Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid) • ALDE: Verhofstadt – but complicated by Fogh Rasmussen for President of European Council? • European Council – Dk PES government to nominate a Liberal? European Council doesn’t need a nomination – Tusk here perhaps? • Commissioners: Kroes (age 71) for a third term? Lamy? Aubry (or French PM?)? EU/US trade deal – Lamy for trade Commissioner again? • EPP parliamentary group: Barnier to lead? Leave of absence from April 2014; how many other Commissioners on leave of absence (Reding? de Gucht?)? • S+D parliamentary group: Swoboda retiring to national politics – consolation prize for Schultz? • NATO Sec Gen: Fratini/Pieter De Crem (Belgium)/Abdullah Gul (Turkey)?
  22. 22. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS Already intense campaigning – even for positions on lists
  23. 23. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS Some other issues • Primaries (2019?) - but note Green initiative • Manifestos • Campaigning • Candidatures – the process? What process? • Hearings of Commissioners, September 2014 • Ballot papers – declare European party affiliation? • A single electoral register (2019?)? • Will it all be a flop?
  24. 24. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS THANK YOU! If you have further questions, you can contact David Earnshaw : david.earnshaw@bm.com 37 Square de Meeus 1000 Brussels Belgium Tel: +32 2 743 66 11 Fax: +32 2 733 66 11 www.bmbrussels.eu www.bm.com
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