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Macro-economic Environment & Impact on Rural Poor
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Macro-economic Environment & Impact on Rural Poor

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By Steve Wiggins, ODI

By Steve Wiggins, ODI
Brussels, 4 July 2007

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Macro-economic Environment & Impact on Rural Poor Macro-economic Environment & Impact on Rural Poor Presentation Transcript

  • Macro-economic Environment & Impact on Rural Poor Steve Wiggins Overseas Development Institute Brussels Rural Development Briefing, Brussels 4th July 2007
  • Challenges & Threats
    • Some well known:
    • HIV/AIDS
    • Climate change & associated environmental impacts  e.g. loss biodiversity
    • Changing supply chains: increasing reach of conglomerates into rural Africa
    • World markets for food and agricultural produce:
      • Outcome of trade and other reforms in North
      • China, India as significant importers?
      • Biofuels
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  •  
  • Challenges & Threats (con’d)
    • Some less appreciated than they should be:
    • Macroeconomic conditions & success of urban economies
    • Unknowns & surprises  some possibly pleasant, e.g. mobile phones
    • And be prepared to recognise success in Africa
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  •  
  • Implications
    • (Some) threats: uncertain, tomorrow
    • Poverty & hunger: certain, today
    • So current agenda applies
      • Agricultural development
      • Non-farm economy
      • Urban-rural links
      • Social protection
      • Reform of trade & OECD subsidies
  • Disaster Preparedness
    • Poor record:
    • Southern Africa faces droughts predictable over decade if not for exact years
    • Since 1991/92, since 2002:
    • Where are preparations?
  • Resilience
    • Unpredictable events: capacity to adapt
    • History: African farmers cope with changes over decades
      • e.g. loss soil fertility … so climate change?
    • Less good when onset is rapid
      • pests, diseases, market prices
    • Diversification helps: on-farm & locally, but also
    • Better links & more opp’s nationally & globally