Macro-economic Environment & Impact on Rural Poor Steve Wiggins Overseas Development Institute Brussels Rural Development Briefing, Brussels 4th July 2007

Challenges & Threats Some well known: HIV/AIDS Climate change & associated environmental impacts  e.g. loss biodiversity Changing supply chains: increasing reach of conglomerates into rural Africa World markets for food and agricultural produce: Outcome of trade and other reforms in North China, India as significant importers? Biofuels

Some well known:

HIV/AIDS

Climate change & associated environmental impacts  e.g. loss biodiversity

Changing supply chains: increasing reach of conglomerates into rural Africa

World markets for food and agricultural produce:

Outcome of trade and other reforms in North

China, India as significant importers?

Biofuels

Challenges & Threats (con’d) Some less appreciated than they should be: Macroeconomic conditions & success of urban economies Unknowns & surprises  some possibly pleasant, e.g. mobile phones And be prepared to recognise success in Africa

Some less appreciated than they should be:

Macroeconomic conditions & success of urban economies

Unknowns & surprises  some possibly pleasant, e.g. mobile phones

And be prepared to recognise success in Africa

Implications (Some) threats: uncertain, tomorrow Poverty & hunger: certain, today So current agenda applies Agricultural development Non-farm economy Urban-rural links Social protection Reform of trade & OECD subsidies

(Some) threats: uncertain, tomorrow

Poverty & hunger: certain, today

So current agenda applies

Agricultural development

Non-farm economy

Urban-rural links

Social protection

Reform of trade & OECD subsidies

Disaster Preparedness Poor record: Southern Africa faces droughts predictable over decade if not for exact years Since 1991/92, since 2002: Where are preparations?

Poor record:

Southern Africa faces droughts predictable over decade if not for exact years

Since 1991/92, since 2002:

Where are preparations?

Resilience Unpredictable events: capacity to adapt History: African farmers cope with changes over decades e.g. loss soil fertility … so climate change? Less good when onset is rapid pests, diseases, market prices Diversification helps: on-farm & locally, but also Better links & more opp’s nationally & globally

Unpredictable events: capacity to adapt

History: African farmers cope with changes over decades

e.g. loss soil fertility … so climate change?

Less good when onset is rapid

pests, diseases, market prices

Diversification helps: on-farm & locally, but also

Better links & more opp’s nationally & globally