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Macro-economic Environment & Impact on Rural Poor
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Macro-economic Environment & Impact on Rural Poor

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By Steve Wiggins, ODI

By Steve Wiggins, ODI
Brussels, 4 July 2007

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    Macro-economic Environment & Impact on Rural Poor Macro-economic Environment & Impact on Rural Poor Presentation Transcript

    • Macro-economic Environment & Impact on Rural Poor Steve Wiggins Overseas Development Institute Brussels Rural Development Briefing, Brussels 4th July 2007
    • Challenges & Threats
      • Some well known:
      • HIV/AIDS
      • Climate change & associated environmental impacts  e.g. loss biodiversity
      • Changing supply chains: increasing reach of conglomerates into rural Africa
      • World markets for food and agricultural produce:
        • Outcome of trade and other reforms in North
        • China, India as significant importers?
        • Biofuels
    •  
    •  
    • Challenges & Threats (con’d)
      • Some less appreciated than they should be:
      • Macroeconomic conditions & success of urban economies
      • Unknowns & surprises  some possibly pleasant, e.g. mobile phones
      • And be prepared to recognise success in Africa
    •  
    •  
    • Implications
      • (Some) threats: uncertain, tomorrow
      • Poverty & hunger: certain, today
      • So current agenda applies
        • Agricultural development
        • Non-farm economy
        • Urban-rural links
        • Social protection
        • Reform of trade & OECD subsidies
    • Disaster Preparedness
      • Poor record:
      • Southern Africa faces droughts predictable over decade if not for exact years
      • Since 1991/92, since 2002:
      • Where are preparations?
    • Resilience
      • Unpredictable events: capacity to adapt
      • History: African farmers cope with changes over decades
        • e.g. loss soil fertility … so climate change?
      • Less good when onset is rapid
        • pests, diseases, market prices
      • Diversification helps: on-farm & locally, but also
      • Better links & more opp’s nationally & globally