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Key Meta-Processes Shaping Development over the Next 10-15 Years

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Presentation by Charles Gore (UNCTAD) during the High Level Policy Forum - After 2015: Promoting Pro-poor Policy after the MDGs - Brussels, 23 June 2009 - http://www.bit.ly/after2015

Presentation by Charles Gore (UNCTAD) during the High Level Policy Forum - After 2015: Promoting Pro-poor Policy after the MDGs - Brussels, 23 June 2009 - http://www.bit.ly/after2015

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  • 1. Key Meta-Processes Shaping Development over the Next 10-15 Years Presentation at the High-level Policy Forum on ‘After 2015: Promoting Pro-poor Policy after MDGs’, at the Residence Palace, Brussels, 23 June 2009 Charles Gore Special Coordinator Cross-sectoral Issues, Division for Africa, Least Developed Countries and Special Programmes, UNCTAD .
  • 2. Causes of the Financial Crisis • The crisis is not simply a failure of the financial system (lax financial regulation, misunderstood financial innovations, outrageous financial incentives) • Rather the crisis is rooted in the contradictions of the current global development trajectory and weaknesses of the current development paradigm
  • 3. Contradictions and Weaknesses • ‘Market fundamentalism’ • Radical global income inequality • Global interdependence without global institutions (missing institutions; voice/power) • Socio-insitutional mismatch with emerging new technological paradigm • Environmental limits to growth
  • 4. End of 60-year Development Cycle
  • 5. Radical Global Income Inequality • Richest 1 per cent of people receive as much as poorest 57 per cent (50 million richest receive as much as 2.7 billion poorest) Milanovic (2005) Worlds Apart • Poorest 40 per cent of world population receive 5 per cent of world income (‘failed states’). • No world middle class. Only 17 per cent of world population between 75 per cent and 125 per cent of world median income and they command only 7 per cent of world income. • A globalization of expectations without a globalization of opportunity
  • 6. GlobaI Interdependence without Global Institutions • ‘This is a Bretton Woods moment’ (Jomo) • Problem of conceptual confusion - methodological nationalism/notions of global social justice • Rise of BRICs, emerging economies and complex interplay between North-South and South-South • UNIDO (2009) expects the major share of global manufacturing value-added to be produced in developing countries after the crisis
  • 7. Transition to a New Technological Paradigm • From ‘Fordist mass production’ to an ‘Information and communications Kondratiev’ (Freeman 1989) or to ‘micro- electronics and biotechnology’ technological style (Tylecote 1992) • Emergence of Knowledge Economy and Knowledge Society • Problem of delays in energy innovation and coming peak oil
  • 8. Environmental Limits to Growth • Increasing resource pressures associated with rising population • Imperative to mitigate and adapt to climate change. We are now at 387 ppm CO2 ‘350 parts per million CO2 is the maximum amount of carbon in the atmosphere consonant with the planet in which civilization developed and to which life on earth is adapted’
  • 9. Implications for MDG-plus Agenda The underlying challenge for global economic governance is to find effective and fair ways of mitigating and adapting to climate change whilst at the same time reducing global income inequalities and realizing the development aspirations and unrealized human potential of millions of people in developing countries.
  • 10. Implications for MDG Plus Agenda A New Organizing Principle and Policy Narrative Kondratieff Spring National Economic 1950s and 1960s Developmentalism Growth Kondratieff Summer National Economic 1970s Developmentalism Growth + Redistribution Kondratieff Autumn Global Washington 1980s and 1990s Integration Consensus Kondratieff Winter Global Washington 2007-2012/2015? Integration Consensus + Poverty Reduction and MDGs Possible Kondratieff Global Develop Spring? Sustainable Productive 2012/2015-2030? Development Capacities
  • 11. Implications for MDGs • Need a new and different international development consensus (global sustainable development). • Embed well-being indicators in a different policy analytical narrative about development (productive capacities). • Aid shift: From national development means to achieve global development goals to global development means to achieve global development goals. • MDGs could become social and economic rights which are guaranteed at a global level and not financed through national budgets but through innovative global sources of finance, such as taxes on global transactions.
  • 12. Thank You For further information on the productive capacities approach, see www.unctad.org/ldcr Especially The Least Developed Countries Report 2006 and 2007.

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