Climate change impacts on agriculture and rural development in the Pacific Region

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Presentation by Koin Etuati (Community Lifelines Programme - SOPAC) - Lisbon, European Development Days side event, 7 November 2007 …

Presentation by Koin Etuati (Community Lifelines Programme - SOPAC) - Lisbon, European Development Days side event, 7 November 2007

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  • 1. Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org EU Development Days, Lisbon Will Climate Changes Development 7 th November, 2007 Climate Change impacts on Agriculture and Rural Developments in the Pacific Region Koin Etuati Project Officer - Energy Community Lifelines Programme - SOPAC
  • 2. Topics
    • SOPAC/PEG network and the Pacific Region
    • Climate Change Scenarios
    • Current Rainfall Outlook
    • Climate Change and Agriculture - Maiana Island (Kiribati)
    • Climate Change and Rural Energy Development
    • Adaptation & Challenges
    Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org
  • 3. Pacific Energy Gender (PEG) Network in the Pacific Region PEG is a network that pools together Gender and Energy expertise from all of the 14 Pacific Island Countries (PICs), including international and regional partners. It is currently housed within the Secretariat of the Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) in Fiji. The Community Lifelinnes Programme is mandated regionally to work on Energy, Water and ICT – GIS etc. Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org
  • 4. Climate Change Scenarios
    • WB Report Aug 2000 –
    • Rise in sea level – increase to 0.2m to 0.4 meters in 2050. In 2100 a sea level rise of 0.5 – 1.0 m.
    • Increase in surface air temperature – 2050 increase to 1.3 o C and to 1.6 - 3.4 o C by 2100.
    • Change in Rainfall – either rise or fall in different parts of the Pacific but the intensity of these climate variability are increasing.
    Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org
  • 5. Current Rainfall Outlook Rainfall outlook for South Eastern Region - Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga and Niue rainfall is above average. October to December 2007 Rainfall outlook for Kiribati, Tuvalu and Cook Islands :well below average expects dry weather conditions in all of the central part of the Pacific region. Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org
  • 6. Kiribati – Maiana Island
    • One of the 33 low lying islands.
    • Average height above sea level: less than 3 metres.
    • Population ( 2005 census): 1,908
    • Number of Households:354
    • No. of Villages:11
    • People live a subsistence based economy
    Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org
  • 7. Agriculture
    • Coconut trees vulnerable to sea level rise and also sensitive to rainfall.
    • Coconut trees require annual rainfall of at least 1,000 – 1,500 mm.
    • Main cash crop – allows to minimize urban migration. 71% of households interviewed depend on copra production.
    Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org FOOD & DRINK SHELTER MEDICINE BIOMASS HANDICRAFT COPRA – MONEY BIOFUEL – ENERGY/MONEY TREE OF LIFE
  • 8. Agriculture and Climate Change
    • As rainfall decreases, due to climate change, food crops and copra production are decreasing.
    Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org Copra drying - dried in a safe place, away from dogs and chicken.
  • 9. Agriculture and Climate Change
    • Intensity in storm surges and sea level rise will reduce land area and number of food/cash crops.
    • Climate scenarios predict a range of around 54 - 84% of inundation in Kiribati 2050. (WB, 2000)
    • In every square km of land there is an estimate of 14,721 coconut trees. 54% or 6,771 of these are senile trees. ( Agriculture, Kiribati)
    • If 60% of the total land area is inundated by 2050.
    • Number of trees will be reduced by 4,062.6 trees.
    Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org
  • 10. Climate change & Rural Energy Development
    • Kiribati
    • Experiencing Reduced rainfall
    • Low copra production
    • Low income
    • Lack of income for the payment of new energy development such as the PMESCOs.
    • Barrier to Rural Energy Development
    Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org
  • 11. Pacific Micro Energy Services Project- (PMESCOs) Project countries: Kiribati & Solomon islands Financial support: €40,000 REEEP contribute € 27,600 Implementation Period: 1 Aug 2007 – 31 July 2008 Output: (1) 90 LUTW systems 2 LED lights with a 5 Watts panel and 7Ah battery (2) Local Entrepreneurs trained (3) A micro-credit contractual arrangements put in place. Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org
  • 12. Community Consultation
    • People are happy about the small solar system – full ownership of the system once paid in full; and
    • The expected repayment scheme for the solar systems was not feasible.
    • Consultation on the repayment scheme: Based on expected income through copra production:
    • Total cost of the small solar system: AUD350.00
    • Down-payment: AUD100.00
    • 6 monthly repayment: AUD35.00 a month
    • Time frame of project: From 2008 – 2009, 180 households with small solar LED lighting systems.
    Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org
  • 13. Reasons
    • Low copra production in the last three months.
    • People felt insecure in paying the down-payment of AUD100.00.
    • The average monthly repayment for the small solar system (people can afford) AUD13/month.
    • Limited opportunities for cash income activities.
    • No time for income generating activities.
    • No start up capital to kick start business.
    Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org
  • 14. La-Nina is coming Copra production will be dramatically reduced, a repeat of the 1996/1997 and 2001/2002 La Nina. Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org Intensity of La Nina will increase due to climate change
  • 15. Adaptation & Challenges
    • Climate Change - 2 nd Commitment Period of KP.
    • Lack financial resources to adapt to climate change.
    • Cost of LED lights are still very expensive – US$35/light.
    • Technical assistance/Capacity building in developing resilient cash crops.
    • Gender mainstreaming into adaptation policies and strategies.
    • Need good information and communication tools for adaptation strategies for rural communities.
    • Rural energy development – we need to look at feasibility of RE sources and impact of climate change.
    Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission www.sopac.org
  • 16.
    • THANK YOU CTA FOR THE INVITATION AND TRAVEL SUPPORTS