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The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)
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The Future Of Media (Gerd Leonhard)


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Presentation held by Author & Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard in April 2009 at the european television and media management academy (etma) in Strasbourg, France.

Presentation held by Author & Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard in April 2009 at the european television and media management academy (etma) in Strasbourg, France.

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  • 1. The Future of Media Digital media business and broadcasting - opportunities, trends and scenarios ★ ★ ★ ★ & .net
  • 2. The challenge: New Models! Content Consumption (all) Revenue Potential Success with Traditional Content Models Was Is 2 years 5 years
  • 3. The crisis of the Content Business • Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’ • The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!) • Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model (Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...) • Broadband culture drives further commodization • What used to be paid for is now often free • Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!) • Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition
  • 4. But this is not about technology... The Age of Collaboration Emerging cultural practices New business models
  • 5. The Future: connecting the users is the key to success
  • 6. Copy Economy Access / Usage / Sharing Economy
  • 8. Despite all the current gloom & fear: Bundles and Flat Rates will drive this MUCH bigger potential (imho) Huge potential - once licensing issues are solved Source: IBM Institute for Business Value Study
  • 9. The new Content Economy: the User is a major force
  • 10. Starting in 2009: • Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers • Deep collaboration becomes the KEY requirement for creating new business opps • Over-the top layers (search, social media...) will come down, telecoms will move up!
  • 11. 2010: ‘Telecom’ and Media = TeleMedia Experience Platform Service Pipe Content Pipe Data Pipe
  • 12. Media will follow the switch from Closed to Open
  • 13. Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value of Packaging Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) Value of Context 100% Value of Experience Value of Meta-Content Value of Packaging 75% 50% 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  • 14. The Age of Collaboration: Egosystem becomes Ecosystem
  • 15. Digital Content Trends Music Video Games Books Mags & Print Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015
  • 16. Source: The Standard
  • 17. TOTAL Mobility Everywhere CONSTANT Peering and Connecting DEEP Oceans of Content & Information
  • 18. • Straight to Digital Content • Straight to Bundled Access • Straight to Mobile • Straight to next-gen Advertising
  • 19. Remixed and User-made Content: 50% of consumption by 2015?
  • 20. The Future of Content: Copy $ down, Attention $$ up Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0 Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
  • 21. $3 per app to do what people would do for free, anyway: listen to their music A great alternative to getting Radio-Play (i.e. NetPlay) A great way to sell concert tickets and offer other location-based services A direct line of communication - from band to fan - is worth Gold
  • 22. This is where Content resides now...
  • 23. The Future of Content is in the Cloud and the Crowd
  • 24. • Collaborative Revenue Models •The joint development of New Generatives based on Open Access
  • 25. Media $$$: no longer about Distribution
  • 26. A good example of how not to do this...
  • 27. Listening, Reading or Watching = Keeping, Copying & Sharing
  • 28. ‘Free’ ‘Free’
  • 29. Content on the Internet will be licensed like we license Radio & TV, today - starting with Music • Online access = content access • Music access = payment included • Create a new ecosystem on-top!
  • 30. Permission, accounting and... compensating
  • 31. The Printing Press brought us Copyright The Internet brings Usage- us Rights
  • 32. Google & Free Music in China • Free / Feels Like Free Music for China! • Unlimited, unprotected downloads • Paid with Attention, $-ized via Ads • In China, little ‘cannibalization’ concerns • Google is willing to ‘lubricate’ • Industry willing because: China is ‘lost’ for traditional Copyright
  • 33. Next Generation ‘Advertising’ New New Data Content Economy Economy
  • 34. In this world, Permission, Attention and Trust leads to Content’s Remuneration
  • 35. Questioning assumptions
  • 36. So should we control what People do online in order to protect a traditional business model?
  • 37. ‘New Money’ Examples
  • 38. Social Media is becoming... CRM!
  • 39. Advertising...?
  • 40. The new Generatives of Content influenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler... Conversation Convenience Selection / Filtering Packaging Individualization Immediacy Tr u s t
  • 41. Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  • 42. Example: the difference between iStockphoto photos are purchased because of: • Much better metadata. • Better findability. • Faster service. • Low & attractive price-points
  • 43. New Generatives and The Future of Television
  • 44. The TV experience is becoming unified across all screens
  • 45. What’s new about that? • Your own, unique selection of add-ons, widgets and applications on all platforms • This TV knows who you are!
  • 46. And how will we experience all this?
  • 47. The Sharing Economy Logic ...the Output (i.e. publish, re- mix, co-create, life-stream...) the Input (i.e. remuneration in cash, attention, reputation...) ... the Thruput (i.e. usage data, meta content, attention trails >> New Data Economics)
  • 48. Welcome to the Culture of Collaboration • Collaborative value creation: new $$$ together •Make Money around the content •Compensation not Control
  • 49. ‘Free’ gets my Attention... Merit and Trust gets my Money.
  • 50. Thanks for listening! Please talk back ★ email me at ★ ★ facebook: gleonhard ★ more presentations at