The Science Behind Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration

“The Business of Carbon Sequestration and Forestation”, Greater Houston Partnership The Science Behind Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration? John Kadyszewski Winrock International Houston, Texas November 3, 2005

How do Ecosystems Sequester Carbon? P R P Photosynthesis (P) fixes CO2 R Respiration (R) releases CO2 Photosynthesis exceeds respiration, resulting in storage of carbon 2 ©Winrock International 2005

Where is Carbon Sequestered? Live biomass • Trees • Understory • Roots “Carbon Pools” Dead biomass • Standing • Down • Coarse • Fine Wood products Soil ©Winrock International 2005 3

At What Rate Does Carbon Accumulate? P R P Photosynthesis (P) fixes CO2 R Respiration (R) releases CO2 1-5 t C/ha.yr 0.1-0.5 t C/ha.yr ©Winrock International 2005 4

What is a Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Project? Project-based carbon benefits are the difference between the selected “carbon pools” in the with-project and without-project cases ©Winrock International 2005 5

Terrestrial Sequestration Options State Agricultural Land Grazing Land Forest Land Accessory Data Afforestation Afforestation Extend Rotation Risks Change in Change Change Species Co-Benefits Tillage Management Grassland Grassland Change Restoration Restoration Management Conservation ©Winrock International 2005 6

Afforestation Convert agricultural or grazing land back to forest • Return to native forest • Convert to forest land for timber production Source: Tim Pearson, Winrock International Mixed Conifers ©Winrock International 2005 7

Afforestation Convert to forest land with fast- growing species Hybrid Poplar 28 years old 110 feet tall 32 in. dbh Source: Jon Johnson, Washington State University ©Winrock International 2005 8

Growth Rates for Trees Douglas Fir 4 dry t/acre/yr ~50 year rotation Hybrid Poplar 10 dry t/acre/yr 6-8 year rotation Source: Jon Johnson Associate Professor Washington State University 9 years diameter growth ©Winrock International 2005 9

Conserve Forests Stop forest conversion to non- forest Longleaf pine (120 year old forest) • 174 tC/ha Redwood (150 year old forest) • 478 tC/ha Source: Tim Pearson, Winrock International ©Winrock International 2005 10

Winrock Carbon Measurement #1 Classify land area into strata with similar characteristics Collect ground data to determine variability within each strata Insert ground data into Spatial Information Package Set number of permanent plots needed to achieve target level of precision ©Winrock International 2005 11

Winrock Carbon Measurement #2 Prepare Standard Operating Procedures Recommend frequency of monitoring Devise Quality Assurance/ Quality Control Plan Determine need for compliance monitoring Prepare plan for archiving data ©Winrock International 2005 12

Accuracy and Precision Statistical sampling Report results with error bars Trade-off between cost and precision • Expected variability affects number of plots • Fixed and variable costs • Different project classes have different measurement costs ©Winrock International 2005 13

Establish Permanent Plots Each plot is permanently marked and georeferenced. ©Winrock International 2005 14

Measure Aboveground Biomass Measure diameter at breast height for all trees within the boundaries of the permanent plot – carbon estimated from regression equations ©Winrock International 2005 15

Measuring Understory and Fine Litter Use clip plots (60 cm diameter frame) to sample herbaceous vegetation and litter within the permanent plot Collect total fresh weight and dry a sub- sample to calculate dry biomass ©Winrock International 2005 16

Measuring Dead Wood For standing dead trees estimate biomass using regression equations or volume from detailed measurements Use line intersect method for lying dead wood Sample dead wood for density estimate ©Winrock International 2005 17

Sampling Soils for Organic Carbon Collect 4 samples, mix well and sieve through 2 mm mesh screen Expose mineral soil surface Dig 30 cm x 30 cm pit or take Air dry (not in direct soil core sun) and send to lab for C analysis Photo by André Ferreti Photo by Matt Delaney Collect one sample Photo by Matt Delaney for bulk density ©Winrock International 2005 18

Entergy Cinergy ©Winrock International 2005 19

Reducing Measurement Costs Aerial Measurements

Aerial Measurements Using High Resolution 3D Imagery ©Winrock International 2005 21

Aerial Sample Plots ©Winrock International 2005 22

Labor Needed for Aerial vs Field Plots Step M3DADI approach Conventional field approach Prepare the plane and 24 -- collect imagery Processing the imagery or 65 0.13 field data† Collect and record plot 0.71 3.4 measurements-time per plot Enter data into 0.25 0.75 spreadsheets-time per plot Estimated total time to sample 202 plots* 283 865 ©Winrock International 2005 23

Project Issues Baselines Leakage Reversibility (Permanence) • Duration • Risk of Loss Additionality Measurement and Monitoring ©Winrock International 2005 24

Can these activities make a difference? Global estimates of the potential amount of land available and potential amount of C that could be sequestered and conserved by forest management practices on this land between 1995 to 2050. Latitudinal Practice Area C sequestered belt (Mha) & conserved (billion tons) Boreal Forestation 95 2.4 Temperate Forestation 113 11.8 Agroforestry 7 0.7 14 Tropics Forestation 67 16.4 Agroforestry 63 6.3 Regeneration 217 11.5-28.7 Slow deforestation 138 10.8-20.8 46-73 Total 700 60-87 *The amount of C conserved and sequestered here is equivalent to 12-15% of the business-as-usual fossil fuel emissions over the same time period From Brown et al. 1996, Second Assessment Report of IPCC; 25 ©Winrock International 2005 Kauppi and Sedjo 2000, Third Assessment Report, IPCC

Multiple Additional Environmental Benefits Co-Benefits Water Flood Control Biodiversity New Income Sources Watershed Reduced Cost Endangered Non-timber Integrity for Insurance Species forest products Water Reduced Flood Parks and Tourism Quality Damage Reserves Reduced Reduced Wetlands Forest Non-Point Non-Point Products Streams Water Supply Expanded ©Winrock International 2005 Habitat 26

DOE Regional Partnership Preliminary results from “Carbon Supply from Sequestration Activities on Agriculture and Forest Lands for SECARB Partnership”, Winrock International, September 2005.

Potential Terrestrial Carbon Supply from Afforestation in SECARB Region Activity after 40 years Million t CO2 Million acres Crop land afforestation $2.40 per metric ton CO2 5 0.04 $10 per metric ton CO2 1128 7.7 $20 per metric ton CO2 3881 28.0 Grazing land afforestation $2.40 per metric ton CO2 0 0 $10 per metric ton CO2 3277 24.4 $20 per metric ton CO2 3485 27.3 ©Winrock International 2005 28

Potential C Supply (t Carbon) by County for Afforestation after 40 yr Croplands Grazing lands t Carbon < 1,000,000 1,000,001 - 2,000,000 2,000,001 - 3,000,000 3,000,001 - 4,000,000 4,000,001 - 5,000,000 5,000,001 - 6,000,000 6,000,001 - 7,000,000 7,000,001 - 8,000,000 8,000,001 - 9,000,000 > 9,000,001 ©Winrock International 2005 29

Potential C supply ($/t C) for afforestation after 40 yr Croplands Grazing lands < $30.00 $30.01 - $50.00 $50.01 - $70.00 $70.01 - $90.00 $90.01 - $110.00 $110.01 - $130.00 $130.01 - $150.00 Divide $/t C by $150.01 - $170.00 3.67 to get $/t CO2 $170.01 - $190.00 ©Winrock International 2005 > $190.01 30

Options for Cofiring Biomass Blend biomass with coal on the conveyor belt and feed through the pulverizer– estimated cost $100- 200/kw • Limited to < 3% heat from biomass except with cyclone boilers that could blend up to 10% Retrofit to add biomass-only injection point – estimated cost $200-300/kw ©Winrock International 2005 31

Potential Terrestrial Sequestration -- Assuming Heat Rate of 11,000 BTU/kWh and Capacity Factor 80% -- Assuming conversion to forest with 20 or 40 year rotations Power Biomass Fuel Land Change in Carbon Output Required Required Stocks 30 MW 212,000 MT 42,000 20 yrs – 2.1 M tons acres 40 yrs – 6.3 M tons 50 MW 353,000 MT 70,600 20 yrs – 3.5 M tons acres 40 yrs – 10.5 M tons 80 MW 565,000 MT 113,000 20 yrs – 5.7 M tons acres 40 yrs – 17.0 M tons ©Winrock International 2005 32

Land Requirements ~ 5 million acres available within 50 miles Land Percentage Carbon Sequestration Required Value at $2/MT CO2 42,000 <1% 20 yrs – $7.7 Million acres 40 yrs – $23.1 Million 70,600 ~1.4% 20 yrs – $12.8 Million acres 40 yrs – $38.5 Million 113,000 ~2.3% 20 yrs – $20.9 Million acres 40 yrs – $62.3Million ©Winrock International 2005 33

Environmental Benefits Carbon benefits • Displace coal -- annual benefit • Stimulate changes in land use that result in higher average carbon stocks Can reduce NOx emissions Biomass usually has no sulfur or mercury Low ash and less particulates ©Winrock International 2005 35

Summary Terrestrial carbon sequestration projects can be measured accurately at low cost New aerial methods will reduce costs further Afforestation is the largest option available in the SE region of the US Co-firing biomass fuels with coal could produce significant emission reductions ©Winrock International 2005 36

Questions or Comments: John Kadyszewski Winrock International (703) 525-9430,ext 618 Jkadyszewski@winrock.org ©Winrock International 2005 37

The Science Behind Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration

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