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Teigland_Exploring future of value creation

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My presentation in Malmö and Stockholm today for GfK as part of their Digital Insights Seminar in September 2012

My presentation in Malmö and Stockholm today for GfK as part of their Digital Insights Seminar in September 2012

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  • Of original Forbes 100 in 191761 companies ceased to exist by 198718 of remaining 39 underperformed market by 20%Only 2 beat market index (GE & Eastman Kodak)Only 1 (1%) today!Of companies in original S&P 500 in 1957426 companies ceased to exist by 1997Only 12 (2.4%) outperformed S&P 500 index in 1997 Of top 100 companies in Korea in 1955Only 7 still on list in 20041997 crisis destroyed half of 30 largest conglomerates
  • Strong ties – 4-6 on averageWeak ties – 150 on average Teamporary ties -
  • The “Check-in” is the phenomenon that never happened74% of Americans are unfamiliar with the concept of checking in to a location via mobile device, and only 3% have ever checked in. Even more damning, is that 4% had checked in when surveyed in 2011. This is a 25% decrease in check in behaviors in a single year. It’s not going to rebound, which is why Foursquare’s play is to be the new Yelp.
  • Photo: http://blog.tweetfind.com/pin-this-pinterest-releases-android-ipad-apps.html
  • http://www.forbes.com/sites/haydnshaughnessy/2012/09/21/does-apples-success-prove-social-media-doesnt-really-matter/
  • http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/13/google-glass-diane-von-furstenburg-video_n_1881484.htmlhttp://thecreatorsproject.com/blog/google-glasses-strut-their-stuff-on-the-catwalk-at-new-york-fashion-weekWhen Google’s Project Glass was announced back in April, most people were wowed by the concept but a little unsure about walking around looking like an extra from Star Trek. Sure, they certainly would be fun—if a little overwhelming—to use, but as a fashion statement, it was mainly the techies who’d be keen to show them off as eyewear.This didn’t stop them from making an appearance on Sunday at New York Fashion Week, gracing the catwalk on the faces of supermodels for Diane von Furstenberg‘s show—even color-coded to match the models’ outfits for her S/S 2013 collection.So is this the moment wearable tech went mainstream? Probably not, because while the glasses were being worn by models at a global fashion mega-event, they were there for practical, rather than aesthetic, reasons: to record behind-the-scenes for a short film DVF through Glass. The images from the show were streamed on von Furstenberg’s Google+ profile, so us normals could glimpse the backstage glam from the world of high-end fashion.More than a fashion statement though, this was a power marketing play by Google—aligning with the fashion elite like DVF is certainly one way to get the public’s buy-in. I mean, if the fashion world could convince people wearing armadillo-inspired shoes that resemble lobster claws is a good idea, why not Google Glasses?
  • 46% of variation in how many friends you have is explained by your genes – some born shy and some gregarious.47% of variation in whether your friends know each other has to do with your genes. So do people knit networks of those around them or not….30% of variation in whether in middle or on edge of network has to do with your genes.
  • Photo source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/philliecasablanca/3344142642/
  • How social technologies drive business success EUROPEAN SURVEY RESULTS 15TH MAY 2012
  • How social technologies drive business success EUROPEAN SURVEY RESULTS 15TH MAY 2012
  • Fades onto all screens(1) teaching people how to do things we already know how to do and (2)creating collaborative environments that allow people to develop new ideasand concepts to address unanticipated opportunities or challenges.Productive learning focuses mostly on the individual and on helpingthat individual to adopt a pattern of behavior that improves productivity.Generative learning, by contrast, is a collaborative endeavor. Shared meaningand insights are developed at the group level, and these insights driveenterprise transformation to ensure growth and sustainability. Today, thelearning function is focused primarily on productive learning. As a result,it appears that trainers are more likely to want to maintain the status quo,rather than challenge it.Learning is a far more complicated phenomenon than can ever be limitedto the classroom context. If we convey knowledge about tasks we alreadyknow how to do, we call it productive learning . If we share knowledge abouttasks that are new and different, we call it generative learning . Productivelearning serves largely to maintain the status quo within an enterprise byconveying what is already known, while generative learning involves notonly absorbing existing information but also creating new solutions to unanticipatedproblems. Information age learning requires that individuals andorganizations change the way they think about and act on what is knownand what needs to be known in order to innovate, change, and win.
  • Q13. What are your general thoughts on using social media and business relevant to your job etc? networking applications for work-related purposes; that is for collaborating with colleagues on specific tasks, keeping in touch with clients or other people
  • Fades into center screenRT: Walls are breaking down – value added coming from across boundaries of the firm Kay, J. (1993) Foundations of Corporate Success, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  • RT: Walls are breaking down – value added coming from across boundaries of the firm .
  • Threadless:What came first – the community or the companyRT: presents Threadless, http://www.nickburcher.com/2009/05/threadless-twitter-tees-another-example.html1,530,000 followers on TwitterThe whole business model for Threadless is based on an implicit understanding of how the social web works and gives a great demonstration of how communities can be built and harnessed across an organisation. Identifying online enthusiasts and passion groups and then using social platforms to bring them into the core of a business would appear to be a more powerful way of utilising social opportunities than just running ads on Facebook - but it requires a good deal more commitment. The media aspect of social offers some exciting opportunities for brands, but the potential of the social web can be significantly greater if the power of community is fully realised. In summary, there has to be purpose behind why you use social media. Largest challenge is about changing the mindset though – where create value? Use of social media considerably larger in smaller companies: Inc 100 vs Fortune 100. In these smaller companies, social media being used as a leadership tool as well. Let’s hear from some of you now on your thoughts about social media. (Next Slide)
  • http://opensourceecology.org/wiki/Marcin_Jakubowskihttp://www.localmotors.com/
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhYvDS7q_V8
  • http://www.dexigner.com/news/25559
  • http://orgnet.com/community.html
  • http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~drand/
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CijdlYOSPcWhile many definitions of VWs, these are the characteristics that I find relevant to the study of virtual entrepreneurship. Persistent, computer-simulated, immersive environments ranging from 2D "cartoon" imagery to more immersive 3D environmentworld exists regardless of whether users logged inUsers can manipulate and/or alter existing content or even create customized content Shared space or co-presencenumerous users, or ‘avatars’, simultaneously participate, interact, and share experiences through gestures, text chat, and voiceSocialization/community formation of in-world social groups such as teams, guilds, clubs, cliques, housemates, neighborhoods, etc the world allowed and encouraged
  • https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/cGAPUCiKe6LI6l5fM4rFqAComputer-generated, persistent spaceThree-dimensional, immersiveenvironmentExperienced by many people at once/interactivity
  • https://www.facebook.com/CloudParty
  • RT: traditional leadership further challenged as we move to a world of web 3.0 or the immersive internet…http://www.forbes.com/sites/limyunghui/2012/08/02/1-6-of-facebook-users-spent-over-1-billion-on-virtual-goods/http://www.informationweek.com/development/mobility/virtual-goods-to-generate-29-billion-in/232602637http://techcrunch.com/2012/02/29/virtual-good-market-boom/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ahqjBeknT0
  • Lecuyer et al, Brain-Computer Interfaces, Virtual Reality, and Videogames Opensimulator3d printingBCI
  • I always like to put things into perspective. I think that what is interesting and relevant here is that several economic historians had actually predicted the crisis that we are experiencing now. I don’t have time to go into all the details, but what we are seeing is a pattern repeating itself. As in the late 18th and 19th Centuries there was a technological innovation that led to a period first of transformation as the innovation began to be diffused, then a period of rationalization leading to an imbalance, and then to a financial crisis coming around 40 years after the innovation. However, in the past, these financial crises have then led to periods of great economic development – industrial revolutions, in which industry profitability has been restored through a redistribution of the value-added between capital and labor. But more importantly, these crises filtered out those organizations that could not adapt and change to stay competitive in the new industrial environment. And one of the most important things that is of interest for today’s discussion is that in one of the factors facilitating these new phases of economic growth following the crisis has been that a generation of people that had never experienced life without the innovation starts to enter the workforce – thus they are not restricted by old ways of thinking.experiencing now some economic historians claim to be due to the innovation of the microprocessor and microelectronics in the 1970s. Similar to what we experienced with the innovation of the steam engine in the late 18th C and the internal combustion engine and electric motor in the late 19th C, there was a subsequent crisis about due to various forces converging. We saw that as these basic innovations were diffused, people stopped investing in the existing industrial structure and instead focused on investing in a new generation of competitive machinery, which then led to an industrial revolution in both cases as the innovations became embedded in society. At the same time, the crisis served to release the negative pressure that had been built up as well as to restore industry profitability through the redistribution of value-added between capital and labor. Other notesNotes from article - Schön, L, Economic Crises and Restructuring in HistoryA crisis is connected with changes in the long term or structural conditions built up during a rather long period of time and effects behavior for a long time to comeTransformation – changes in industrial structure – resources are reallocated between industries and diffusion of basic innovations with industry that provides new bases for such reallocationRationalization – concentration of resources to most productive units within the branches and measures to increase efficiency in different lines of productionShifts between transformation and rationalization have occurred with considerable regularity in structural cycle of 40 years – 25 years on transformation, and 15 years on rationalization. Crises been part of this cycle as wellInternational crisis in 1840s – How go from crisis to expansion quickly – went quite rapidly in 1930s for Sweden – but Sweden in opposite corner in 1970s1850s – upswing of industrial and infrastructural investments was linked to breakthrough of mechanized factories in Sweden, modernization of steel processes and construction of railways1930s and more marked after WWII late 1940s - expansion of electrification and diffusion of automobiles, processing of electrosteel to small motors in handicraft and household – combination with motorcar – new styles in living and consumptionWaves of investments around development of an infrastructure from basic innovation of preceding cycle mid 1970s – microprocessor – knowledge and information in production of goods and servicesIt is not the basic innovation itself – but the diffusion of the innovation that counts!When invented, then expensive to implement, have a narrow range of application – Following generalization – A structural crisis (that has been preceded by an early development of basic innovations) has put an end to old directions of investments mainly in rationalization of existing industrial structure and given rise to investments in ne and devt of new tech that after one decade (the length of the classical Juglar cycle of machinery investments) has created a new generation of economically competitive machineryReallocation of labor occurs approx 15-30 years after the structural crisisDevelopment of markets – distribution of value added between capital and labour is one mirror of these changesDiffusion of innovations leads to expansion of markets and arrival of new competitors – Structural crises – release negative pressure and restored profitability in industry – get rid of those who not competitive
  • Abandoned factory in Michigan: http://www.nebraskaweatherphotos.org/july2009photos.htmlOffice building: http://homeasnika.com/office-buildings/
  • RT: the 3D internet characterized by ….(next slide)
  • http://journals.tdl.org/jvwr/article/view/866
  • http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/147/doctor-love.html
  • I can’t find the source for this, it would be great if someone could point this out to me.
  • Transcript

    • 1. September 2012www.hhs.se
    • 2. Today’s discussionFrom 2010 to 2012 Into the future….
    • 3. Did You Know: Shift Happens http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY&feature=search 1. What trends do you recognize? 2. How are these trends affecting you and your organization?3. What does this have to do with networks?
    • 4. Human capacity cannot keep up… Information Growth and knowledge Human absorptive capacity TimeAdapted from Cohen & Levinthal 1989
    • 5. Big Data is now big moneyTomas Larsson, Sep 2012
    • 6. ”No one knows everything, everyone knows something,all knowledge resides in networks humanity.” Six degrees of separation - Milgram, 1967 Adapted from Lévy 1997
    • 7. 3.74 degrees of separation! Aug 2012 5 mln active monthly users in SwedenSource: Facebook
    • 8. People > 45 years becoming more active % age group with personal profile on any social networking websiteEdison Research, 2012 - US-based study
    • 9. Check-ins not taking off… How often do you check in to location services such as Foursquare or Gowalla? 60% 57% 50% 42% 39% 40% 30% 2011 24% 2012 20% 18% 18% 10% 0% Almost never Sometimes Almost every time I go outEdison Research, 2012 - US-based study
    • 10. Creation > curation 46% Creators: Create and post photos, videos, etc. 41% Curators: Find and post photos, videos, etc.http://pewinternet.org/Reports/2012/Online-Pictures.aspx
    • 11. Organizations span the full range of use but…. 2010 2012 Organizational use No One-way Two-way use “broadcasting” conversations ..the majority ..the majority are here here are Ban Allow Encourage use use use Employee useTeigland 2010
    • 12. US Fortune 500 renews interest in social media 100% 90% 80% 73% 70% 66% 62% 62% 60% 60% 58% 56% 2010 50% 2011 40% 2012 30% 28% 23%23% 20% 10% 2% 0 0 0 0 0% Twitter Facebook Public blogs YouTube Pinterest Google: 5.3 mln Twitter followers, up from 3.3 mln Coca-Cola: >51 mln Facebook fans, up from 32 mln Pinterest: Dominated by B2C companieshttp://www.umassd.edu/cmr/studiesandresearch/2011fortune500/
    • 13. Social media gaining in influence on buying decisions Which ONE social networking site or service influences your buying decisions the most?Edison Research, 2012 - US-based study
    • 14. 67% in USA do not follow a brand in social media and for those who do, no one brand dominates Think about the companies, brands, products and services you enjoy following on social networking sites. What is the first ONE that comes to mind?Edison Research, 2012 Of 332 responses
    • 15. Google Glass and Fashion collaborate in short film about Diane Von Furstenburg shot entirely with Glasses’ Going for the Wow Effecthttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/13/google-glass-diane-von-furstenburg-video_n_1881484.html
    • 16. Hidden influence of your friends’ friends… Happy people Christakis & Fowler, 2011 In between people Unhappy peoplehttp://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/nicholas_christakis_the_hidden_influence_of_social_networks.html
    • 17. How Wrapp’s friend-to-friend marketing platform drives salesConverting online relationships to offline sales
    • 18. +http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-07-19/business/sns-rt-us-facebook-walmartbre86i1er-20120719_1_retail-behemoth-wal-mart-ceo-mike-duke-zuckerberg
    • 19. Organizations span the full range of use but…. 2012 Organizational use No One-way Two-way use “broadcasting” conversations ..the majority are here Ban Allow Encourage use use use Employee useTeigland 2012
    • 20. Managementcannot mandate social relationships My company has blocked my computer from accessing most social media sites. But I feel cut off from my network so now I just connect through my phone. Photo: ac360.blogs.cnn.com
    • 21. Wide adoption of internal use across industriesGoogle, Millward Brown, 2012
    • 22. Use of social networking tools within organizations Used for Significant impactGoogle, Millward Brown, 2012
    • 23. Exploitation Exploration Improving existing Developing new value creation value creation activities activitiesAdapted from March 1991
    • 24. The wisdom of the crowd Closed Open Expensive Inexpensive Complex Simple Accurate Close enough Accurate Up-to-dateHinton 2007
    • 25. 30% profit margin in commodity business
    • 26. sketchstreet
    • 27. From clothing to home products….
    • 28. The new market place A shift by companies from being “problem solvers” to “solution finders”Ericsson & Augur 2011
    • 29. Shifting market logicEricsson & Augur 2011
    • 30. Into the future….Who develops it?Who finances it?Who manufactures it?
    • 31. Models of Knowledge Creation E.g., Microsoft ~ Built by employees within organizational boundariesThe Firm vs The Collective E.g., Linux ~ Built by users and distributed freely regardless of affiliation Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
    • 32. “Open source” …not just about software anymore
    • 33. New forms of financinghttp://blog.intuit.com/trends/crowd-power-what-is-crowdfunding-infographic/
    • 34. Fb danielDaniel Bergqvist Founder http://blog.pennybridge.org/
    • 35. 3D printing becoming more commonplace…
    • 36. …and it’s no longer just for companies 3D scanning appsAffordablehome 3D printers
    • 37. Where is all this happening? Online
    • 38. Access to 24x7 global workforce Matchmakers: USD 1bln industry
    • 39. Increasing supply of freelance talent globally Global Online Employment Report Q2 2012 at Elance https://www.elance.com/trends/talent-available
    • 40. OpenSimulator: A value-creation ecosystem Academic Entrepreneur Hobbyist Large Firm Non-profit Local Public Federal Public Research Inst SME Employee Periphery Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
    • 41. Here comes the Immersive Internet….O’Driscoll 2009
    • 42. What are Virtual Worlds ? Platforms for unleashing creativity and revolutionizing value creationhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Quh2OiPHkm8
    • 43. The number of virtual worlds and users continues to rapidly increase ≈1.9 bln accounts ≈100 worldshttp://www.slideshare.net/nicmitham/kzero-universe-q1-2012
    • 44. Training and simulation for Providers of Healthcare DeliveryVirtual hallucinations at In hospital counseling atUC Davis Univ of New EnglandPharmacy training at Umeå U Emergency training w/ SAIC
    • 45. Accelerating innovation to meet global needs Integrating users in development processTeigland et al. 2010 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kMNWBU1Yb8
    • 46. Cloud party on Facebook - In betaMarketplace app and Cloud Coins https://www.facebook.com/CloudParty
    • 47. ≈1.4 bln VW accounts under age 16225 mln 170 mln 200 mln 42 mln 265 mln http://www.slideshare.net/nicmitham/kzero-universe-q1-2012
    • 48. Developing international entrepreneurs?
    • 49. “Clearly, if social activity migrates to synthetic worlds, economic activity will go there as well.” Castronova, 2006 $14.8 billion worldwide market for virtual goods in 2012Ehttp://www.superdataresearch.com/monetization-is-a-four-letter-word/
    • 50. US$ 635,000 for a virtual asteroid!•US$ 500,000 profit in 5 years by Jon “Neverdie” Jacobs •Entropia Universe with GDP >US$ 440 mln http://blogs.forbes.com/oliverchiang/2010/11/13/meet-the-man-who- just-made-a-cool-half-million-from-the-sale-of-virtual-property/
    • 51. The future of immersion…http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-19568451
    • 52. History tends to repeat itself…. Innovation, financial crisis, industrial revolution, … Microelectronics Internal combustion engine Steam engine Third industrial revolution? Late 18th C Late 19th C Late 20th CSchön 2008
    • 53. From factories to office parks to….
    • 54. From the mobility of goods to the mobility of financial capital to …...the “mobility” of labor? Teigland, JVWR, 2010
    • 55. Some things do not changeInnovation ExchangeExchange TrustTrust RelationshipsRelationships Interaction
    • 56. Are you ready?
    • 57. If you love knowledge, set it free… Karinda Rhode Photo: Lindholm, Metro aka Robin Teigland robin.teigland@hhs.sePhoto:Nordenskiöld www.knowledgenetworking.org www.slideshare.net/eteigland www.nordicworlds.net RobinTeigland Photo: Lindqvist
    • 58. Interested in learning more?