Second Life  & Virtual Worlds Kbm Teigland
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Second Life  & Virtual Worlds Kbm Teigland Second Life & Virtual Worlds Kbm Teigland Presentation Transcript

  • Fad or Future - What Do Virtual Worlds Have to Offer? Dr. Robin Teigland Stockholm School of Economics [email_address] www.knowledgenetworking.org Second Life & Virtual Worlds November 2007
  • Today’s discussion
    • Background
    • What are organizations doing in virtual worlds?
      • Second Life
      • Other worlds
    • The future
      • Four scenarios for 2012
      • What should you do?
  • Today’s discussion
    • Background
    • What are organizations doing in virtual worlds?
      • Second Life
      • Other worlds
    • The future
      • Four scenarios for 2012
      • What should you do?
  • A world of rapidly growing knowledge …. > A person’s lifetime 18th century One week 2007 Fischbowl 2007
  • …that becomes quickly outdated …. 50% knowledge relevant 50% knowledge outdated First year of technical-based education Third year of education
  • ..making it more difficult to keep up Growth Time Output of information and knowledge Human absorptive capacity Junks 1989
    • ” No one knows everything,
    • everyone knows something,
    • all knowledge resides in humanity.”
    networks. Lévy 1997
  • Numerous networking possibilities!
  • Today’s discussion
    • Background
    • What are organizations doing in virtual worlds?
      • Second Life
      • Other worlds
    • The future
      • Four scenarios for 2012
      • What should you do?
  • What are real world companies doing in Second Life?
    • Marketing, Branding, & Sales
      • Adidas, BMW, Dell, IBM, Sun, Cisco, Coldwell Banker, Reebok, Nissan, Pontiac, Starwood, Leo Burnett, Vodafone
    • External Communications
      • BMW communicates its clean energy concept
      • Coca-Cola holds competitions
    • Product & Concept Development
      • Philips Electronics, Starwood, Toyota, PA Consulting (for its clients)
    • Recruiting
      • Job fairs and anonymous contact
      • ABN Amro, PA Consulting, IBM, Dell, etc.
    • Internal Communications, Training, & Education
      • Springtime
  • “Catalogue” sales
    • Sears (in collaboration with IBM)
    • Enables customization of kitchen, garage, home bio
    • Links to Sears.com for purchase
  • Product development
    • Toyota
    • Launches real and virtual products simultaneously
    • Enables avatars to customize vehicles in SL
  • Recruiting Job Fairs
  • Springtime Training with avatars from Shanghai, Beijing, Stockholm, and Gotland Internal communications
  • In-house training and education IFL at SSE and Duke Corporate Education Co-developing and running virtual team building exercise
  • But, is anybody out there?
    • Visitors
    • 10:15 pm, Tuesday,
    • Sept 4, 2007 (GMT+1)
    • ABN Amro -0
    • Adidas – 0
    • Cisco - 18
    • BMW - 0
    • Dell – 6
    • IBM – 23
    • Nissan – 0
    • Reebok - 0
    • Sun Microsystems - 1
    • Vodafone - 2
    • Insead – 0
    BMW In-world Wells Fargo, Starwood Hotels, American Apparel are pulling out
  • Critical mass is restricted due to technology * Municipality (kommun) wikipedia.org 1,391 138 195,250 Richmond, VA 1,479 0.06 98 Online, Mon, Sep 3 8:15 pm (GMT+1) Freebie Planet #1 popular site 10,316 786 8,143,000 New York 24,759 87 2,153,600 Paris 1,083 450 489,760 Gothenburg* 4,164 188 782,890 Stockholm* Density (people per km 2) Land area (km 2) Population Location
  • And is anyone making money? What are these individuals selling? Real estate & land rentals Simulation & training environments, games Clothing, accessories, skins, animations Art, design, furniture SL, Sept 3, 2007 Total of 424 >$5000 $2000-5000
  • What about Return on Investment in SL? We have a long-term approach to costs and RoI. We have qualitative goals, to expand and develop our presence. - BMW We have no targets for RoI. -ABN Amro There needs to be some RoI eventually, but this is a long-term project and we are just looking at the potential . - Vodafone Financial Times , May 2007
  • So, what do people do?
    • Most popular places (total time spent there)
      • Freebie Planet
      • Money Island
      • HippiePay.com
      • Welfare Island
      • Cote D’Azur West
      • Apfelland
      • Money Tree Island
      • Life is Life
      • Phat Cat’s Jazzy Blue Lounge
      • Japan Resort
    SL, Sept 3, 2007
  • What can we do that we “ cannot” do in real life?
  • Improving skills Learning to sail with the Starboards Yacht Club
  • Training for natural disasters A tsunami simulator by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
  • Collaborating and co-creating Open source museum with open source art
  • Experiencing the “impossible” UC Davis Medical Center has simulated schizofrenia
  • What is happening in other virtual worlds?
  • Secure virtual workplaces
    • Completely private virtual business worlds offering tools to conduct business and collaborate
    • Fortune 500: Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Motorola, Intel
  • Disney pays $350 mln for Club Penguin
    • Kids 6-14 in Canada
    • 700,000 paying users
    • Virtual goods and online merchandise
    paidcontent.org
  • Cyworld - A world where “MySpace meets Second Life”
    • 40% of entire population
    • $96% of 20-30 yr olds in Korea regular users
    • 120 mln 2006 in Korea
    • More video traffic than YouTube
    Computer Sweden , June 2007
  • Entropia Universe = MMOG + MMORP?
    • Today
    • 600,000 users
    • $360 mln in-gaming turnover 2006
    • Real cash economy
    • Tomorrow
    • Won bid over SL/others to be China’s “first homegrown virtual world where millions will work, communicate, and be in love”
    • 7 mln local + 150 mln overseas Chinese
    • Five virtual banking licenses auctioned for $404,000 May 2007
    Financial Times , June 2007
  • MMOGs still dominate
    • World of Warcraft
    • 374,000 hours played each day or 50,000 man days each day
    • 8.5 mln players worldwide
    Xfire.com, MMPORG.com, June 2007
    • Korean Free to Play (F2P)
    • 4 of top 10 MMOGs in Western world
    • Silkroad Online #1 in West
    • MapleStory with >50 mln players
  • Where are we today with virtual worlds?
    • Business opportunities limited?
      • Many real world firms have virtual world presence, but difficulty turning it into an effective, profitable sales channel
        • Primarily for marketing or learning experience
        • No RoI success stories for real world firms
        • Required resources outweigh short-term benefits
      • Limited number of individual success stories
        • ~150 other individuals making >$5000 per month
      • “ Trapped” in real world activities?
    • Virtual worlds overhyped?
      • Growth lower than appears, small compared to MMOGs
      • Reality vs. fantasy?
        • Disconnect between real world companies/products and SL fantasy avatars
  • Today’s discussion
    • Background
    • What are organizations doing in virtual worlds?
      • Second Life
      • Other worlds
    • The future
      • Four scenarios for 2012
      • What should you do?
  • So, what about the future of virtual worlds?
  • Gartner Group, April 2007 By the end of 2011, 80% of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will have a “second life”, but not necessarily in Second Life.
  • How can we look into the future?
    • Forecast
      • How we think the future will be
    • Vision
      • How we want the future to be
    • Scenario
      • What the future can be
  • Two underlying questions
    • In 2012…
    • How advanced will the usage of virtual worlds be?
      • Widespread use across all dimensions, high user demands
      • Forces: Economic development, digital divide, environmental pressures
    • How integrated will virtual worlds be?
      • Cooperation between different worlds, VW & RW
      • Forces: Security, technology, legislative, political
  • Four scenarios for 2012 Fragmentated worlds Integrated worlds Advanced usage Less- advanced usage
    • Digital Divide
    • Ease of mobility
    • Self-governance
    • Dominance by gaming generation
    • Traditional vs virtual business
    • One Converged Universe
    • High penetration
    • Easy avatar & asset mobility
    • High scalability & security
    • Business transformation
    • Wild Wests
    • Individual “MMOGs” dominant
    • Virtual vandalism
    • Security problems
    • Retreat
    • Virtual Silos
    • Many competing, limited worlds
    • Difficult avatar & asset mobility
    • Limited scalability
    • High security
    • New business models
  • What should you do in virtual worlds? Experiment, “play”, and learn Stay on the look-out Consider creating independent operations Don’t forget other emerging media
  • “ I think there’s a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 “ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, President, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 “ Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895
  • We digitized audio and video, why can’t we just digitize, you know, Earth” Philip Rosedale, CEO Linden Lab
  • Further information
    • Australian Communications Authority (www.acma.gov.au)
      • Vision 20/20: Future Scenarios for the Communications Industry: Implications for Regulation
    • Christenson, C., The Innovator’s Dilemma , 1997
    • Gartner Group Press Release
      • http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=503861
    • Gullers Group
      • The Future of eGovernment: Scenarios 2016 (www.vinnova.se)
    • Moore, G., Crossing the Chasm , 1991
    • Tapscott, D. & Williams, A. Wikinomics, 2006
      • http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5065262745272895737&q=wikinomicsXfire.com)
    • More information: http://ssesecondlife.blogspot.com/
    • www.knowledgenetworking.org
  • Appendix
  • An increasingly connected world new friends family local colleagues old friends old colleagues colleagues at other offices Just a click away… virtual communities local communities old classmates
  • The number of unique users in Second Life has increased exponentially within one year SL, September 3, 2007
  • Who’s in world in Second Life? Number of active avatars SL, September 3, 2007 Sweden is #17
  • US avatars spend the most hours in world SL, September 3, 2007 Total number of hours in world Sweden is #17
  • 25-34 year olds spend most time in world SL, September 3, 2007 Total number of hours in world ~40% Female
  • “ We think it has potential as a way of doing business. We’re just experimenting with it ourselves but we see massive potential in the human interaction you can bring. It’s a big browsing environment in many ways.” - IBM Director
  • Is there critical mass on Second Life? * Municipality (kommun) wikipedia.org 43 988 42,060 Motala* 63 712 44,750 Online, Mon, Sep 3 8:35 pm (GMT+1) Second Life 177 41,284 7,252,330 Switzerland Density (people per km 2) Land area (km 2) Population Location
  • Toyota educates teenagers on credit
  • Marketing and sales
    • American Apparel
    • Sells items of clothing
    • Offers 15% discount if buy same item in real world
  • Man-made disasters
  • Are businesses anywhere else?
    • Active Worlds
    • 2 mln users
    • Branding
    • Wells Fargo left SL for AW
    • Habbo Hotel
    • 7 mln users (mostly teens)
    • Digital goods and marketing
    • Target, Wal-Mart, Kellogg, Nintendo, Walt Disney
  • MyCoke
  • External communities are growing in importance! Online communities Schoolmates Avatars Previous work colleagues Large portion of new ideas and formal collaboration relationships come from external contacts Organization Physical Networks
  • Encourage an open innovation attitude Not all the smart people work for us. We need to work with smart people inside and outside the company. The smart people in our field work for us. If you create the most and the best ideas in the industry, you will win. If you make the best use of internal and external ideas, you will win. Closed attitude Open attitude Chesborough 2003
  • The wisdom of crowds (Surowiecki 2004) Closed Expensive Complex Accurate Open Inexpensive Simple Close enough Hinton 2007
  • Crowdsourcing: Capturing the wisdom of crowds
    • What is it?
      • Customer participation in business and business development
    • Why the interest?
      • Experience
      • Ownership
      • Engagement
      • Loyalty
    Brayrie 2007
  • What can organizations do? Innovation Product development Content generation Decision making Funding Sales & marketing Distribution Brayrie 2007
  • Innovations - www.innocentive.com
  • Problem solutions - The Goldcorp Challenge
  • Decision making & funding Brayrie 2007
  • Product development - www.ideastorm.com Brayrie 2007
  • Building the Dell community Brayrie 2007
  • Communities A driving force in crowdsourcing
    • Participation
    • Engagement
    • Commitment
    • Openness
    • Conversation
    • Connectedness
  • What should you do?
    • Approach as a disruptive technology
      • Enables a new strategy or new business model
      • Enables a larger population of less skilled, less wealthy people to do things in a more convenient, lower cost setting
        • E.g., Telephone, digital photography, PCs, Linux
    • Think wikinomics and peer-to-peer exchange
      • Mass collaboration by free individual agents to improve a given operation or solve a problem
        • E.g., Boeing, Chinese motorcycle industry, P&G
    Christenson 1997, Tapscott & Williams 2006
  • What should you do?
    • Experiment and “play”
      • Find and engage the enthusiasts in your company
      • Support, but make aware of “risks”
      • Don’t ask your leading customers what they think
    • Stay on the look-out
      • Follow developments
      • See how they affect the path to a future scenario
    • Consider creating independent organization for more serious efforts
      • Anonymous bank buying virtual banking contract on Entropia Universe
    • But don’t forget other emerging media
      • Coca-Cola uses combination of all new media channels, e.g., YouTube, MySpace, SL, MyCoke
  • All the things right, but not the right thing!
  • Increasing pace of change! Spread of Technology (Penetration rates years after introduction, Year I =Year Invented)