Scenario Planning Mini-course Teigland

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  • Of original Forbes 100 in 191761 companies ceased to exist by 198718 of remaining 39 underperformed market by 20%Only 2 beat market index (GE & Eastman Kodak)Only 1 (1%) today!Of companies in original S&P 500 in 1957426 companies ceased to exist by 1997Only 12 (2.4%) outperformed S&P 500 index in 1997 Of top 100 companies in Korea in 1955Only 7 still on list in 20041997 crisis destroyed half of 30 largest conglomerates
  • https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130828134917-2293140-overcoming-the-tech-trap-why-the-future-of-business-relevance?_mSplash=1http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/Urbanization/Urban_world_The_shifting_global_business_landscape?cid=other-eml-alt-mgi-mck-oth-1310
  • 10 jobs that did not exist 5 years ago http://www.dn.se/ekonomi/tio-jobb-som-inte-fanns-for-fem-ar-sedan/ Ios-utvecklareAndroidutvecklare3. Zumbainstruktör4. Socialamedier-assistent5. Data scientist6. UI/UX-designer7. Big data-arkitekt8. Beachbody coach9. Cloud service-specialist10. Digital marknadsföringsspecialist
  • http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/old-ship
  • Ringland, Scenarios in Business, 2002Possible views of world, described in narrative form (stories) that provide context in which managers can make decisions.By seeing a range of possible worlds, decisions will be better informed, and a strategy based on this knowledge and insight will be more likely to succeed. Scenarios do not predict the future, but they do illuminate the drivers of changeUnderstanding them can only help managers take greater control of their situation.
  • DAVID A. GARVIN LYNNE C. LEVESQUE A Note on Scenario Planning1
  • Sets things up for the next bit – a discussion among the participants.Internal interviews can generate the burning question as well; internal interview process can also get management buy-in.Significant, upcoming decision or strategic uncertainty that has long-term important consequences for organization
  • From exercise prepared by Paul Miesing and Ray Van Ness, both of the University at Albany, State University of New York ©2006. An earlier version was presented at the Eastern Academy of Management Meetings, Spring- field (MA), May 2005. We are grateful to the reviewers of the Organization and Management Journal for sharing useful ideas. Please do not use or reproduce without written permission. This is done by having groups systematically share data and beliefs about their environmental assumptions, analyze their key business challenges, and create “scenes” that describe combinations of critical events and trends.
  • DAVID A. GARVIN LYNNE C. LEVESQUE A Note on Scenario Planning1
  • What are the main opportunities and threats that each scenario poses for our organization? How well prepared are we (or can we be) to seize these opportunities and avert or minimize the threats?
  • DAVID A. GARVIN LYNNE C. LEVESQUE A Note on Scenario Planning1
  • Scenario Planning Mini-course Teigland

    1. 1. Scenario Planning MBA in Executive Format Stockholm School of Economics Robin Teigland robin.teigland@hhs.se www.knowledgenetworking.org www.slideshare.net/eteigland Robinteigland January 2014
    2. 2. Who am I? (LinkedIn Inmaps) Industry Research SSE Stanford Wharton SSE MBA McKinsey Exec Ed
    3. 3. One of my favorite hobbies Dec 2014 3
    4. 4. Learning Objectives   To experience the process and challenges of scenario planning and its strengths and weaknesses as a technique for assessing and anticipating the future To gain an understanding of political, economic, sociological, technological, environmental, and legal trends and their interrelationships 4
    5. 5. Schedule  Thursday afternoon     Lecture: Introduction to scenario planning Groupwork: UPS Case Guest Lecture: Mats Lindgren, Founder and CEO, Kairos Future, and Author of Scenario Planning, Palgrave Macmillan Friday morning   Groupwork: Scenario planning Group presentations and discussions 5
    6. 6. "...when the rate of change outside an organization is greater than the rate of change inside, the end is near...." Jack Welch…
    7. 7. Increasing pace of change  From 1920s to 2010s   From 2000 to 2010   Average lifespan of S&P 500 company fell from 67 years to 15 years 40% of companies on Fortune 500 list replaced Predictions    In next few years, 70% of Fortune 1000 companies replaced By 2020, >75% of S&P 500 companies we do not know today By 2025, >45% of Fortune 500 from emerging markets Fast Company, McKinsey & Inc
    8. 8. Did You Know: Shift Happens http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY&feature=search 1. What trends do you recognize? 2. How are these trends affecting you and your organization? Note – This video is from 2008. Notice how much has changed since then
    9. 9. Kurzweil 9
    10. 10. 10 jobs that did not exist 5 years ago 1. iOS developer 2. Android developer 3. Zumba instructor 4. Social media assistant 5. Data scientist 6. UI/UX designer 7. Big data architect 8. Beachbody coach 9. Cloud service specialist 10.Digital marketing specialist http://www.dn.se/ekonomi/tio-jobb-som-inte-fanns-for-fem-ar-sedan/ 10
    11. 11. How is your organization‟s peripheral vision? Strength of Capability (strategic thinking, culture, configuration, knowledge management) Need for Peripheral Vision (complexity and volatility of environment) High Low Vulnerable (myopic) Focused (laser-beam) Low Schoemaker, Scanning the periphery Vigilant (20/20) Neurotic (ADD) High
    12. 12. Opportunities in weak signals Domain Opportunities in Periphery Who Saw It Who Missed It Technological Digital revolution Apple and iPod Music industry White LED lighting LED companies Light bulb manufacturers Open-source software Linux, IBM Microsoft and Sun Microsystems CD-ROM encyclopedias Microsoft Encyclopedia Britannica Rapid spread of GSM Nokia Iridium Overnight package delivery FedEx, UPS USPS, United Airlines Search engine potential Google Microsoft Discount point-to-point airlines Southwest, Ryanair and EasyJet United, Delta, Lufthansa Sports and New Age drinks Snapple, Gatorade Coke, Pepsi (initially) Popularity of reality shows Reality show producers Game shows Age compression and demand for more sophisticated dolls Bratz Mattel (Barbie) Generic AIDS drugs in Africa Indian pharmaceutical companies Major global pharma companies Social discontent in Venezuela Hugo Chavez Establishment (PDVSA) Role of “exurbs” in changing US voter patterns George Bush and Karl Rove John Kerry Economic Societal Political Schoemaker: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aLvCVL6bGw
    13. 13. Why do organizations get blindsided? 13
    14. 14. Why do organizations get blindsided? 1. Reactive leadership  Narrowed focus on current business  Lack of curiosity about the periphery 2. Strategic planning process  Inside out rather than outside-in  Fear of cannibalization 3. Inward looking culture  No willingness to listen to scouts 4. Limited information sharing  Across organizational boundaries 5. Organizational configuration  Limited windows on the larger world Schoemaker
    15. 15. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJG698U2Mvo 15
    16. 16. Why think about the future? All our knowledge is about the past, but all our decisions are about the future. What we don‟t know we don‟t know What we know we don‟t know What we know Most of what we need to know to make good decisions today is outside our comprehension: we don‟t even know it‟s there.
    17. 17. “I think there‟s a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, President, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895 17
    18. 18. So, how can we prepare for the future? 18
    19. 19. From controlling risk to navigating uncertainty Schoemaker: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aLvCVL6bGw 19
    20. 20. How can we look into the future?  Forecast   Vision   How we think the future will be How we want the future to be Scenario  What the future can be ??? ? ……. Scenarios: More pictures of the future 20
    21. 21. Ranges of usefulness U Uncertainty F S H Predictability Forecasting Scenario planning Distance into “the future” Adapted from K. van der Heijden “Hoping” t
    22. 22. Scenario planning     It is a method of preparing for the future regardless of what happens. But not a vehicle for predicting the future. It helps make sense of an uncertain future and enable better decisions. Also, a tool for collective learning in organization 22
    23. 23. Types of futures  Possible - “might” happen  Plausible – “could” happen  Probable - “likely to” happen  Preferable - “want to” happen Conway 2003 (future knowledge) (current knowledge) (current trends) (value judgments)
    24. 24. Types of futures Possible “Wildcard” Scenario Plausible Probable Preferable Today Time Conway 2003
    25. 25. 25
    26. 26. UPS Case – Prepare 10 min presentation      What are the strengths and weaknesses of scenario planning? What is your evaluation of UPS‟s 1997 scenario planning exercise? Its Horizon 2017 planning exercise? How do the two efforts compare? What are the other key elements of UPS‟s approach to strategic planning? In particular, what is your evaluation of the UPS Charter? The Centennial Plan? The Strategy Road Map? Why was John McDevitt put in charge of “strategic integration?” Should he remain in that role? How does UPS‟s strategic planning process compare with the approach at your organization? 26
    27. 27. Why scenario planning?  Expands strategic thinking    Promotes motivation and creative thinking    More possible futures imagined and analyzed Uncovers inevitable and near-inevitable scenarios Protects against groupthink Challenges conventional wisdom Can be used as a management/ communication tool Holde 27
    28. 28. How to conduct scenario planning?  Stage 1: Orientation - what is key focal issue?   Stage 2: Exploration - what are the driving forces?     2x2 matrix based on two axes of critical uncertainties Four plausible, alternative scenarios and their characteristics and narratives Stage 4: Options – What are the robust strategies?   Trends that likely to affect, influence, and shape key focal issue (PESTEL), predetermined trends and uncertainties Uncertainties that most likely to define or significantly change future ranked by uncertainty and importance Stage 3: Scenarios - What scenarios build the framework?   Important long-range consequences for organization Implications of scenarios for key focal issue and organization Stage 5: Integration - What are the early warning signals?  Leading indicators and scenarios used to evaluate strategic options Note on Strategic Planning, HBSP 28
    29. 29. Short Scenario Planning Exercise (2 hours) Stage End Product Time Total 1. Orientation • Big question and time dimension 15 min 15 min 2. Exploration • Driving forces (PESTEL) • Ranking of critical uncertainties 20 min 15 min 35 min 50 min 3. Scenarios Creation • Scenario framework • Characteristics and narratives that describe scenarios 15 min 25 min 65 min 90 min 4. Options Consideration • Strategic implications and potential actions 20 min 110 min 5. Integration • Early warning signals • Actions to communicate results to organization 10 min 120 min Adapted from Note on Strategic Planning, HBSP 29
    30. 30. Preparation for tomorrow (Stage 1) Individually…  Review readings and course slides In your group…  Choose an organization for the scenario planning exercise    Start discussing what is the “Big Question” for the organization (Stage 1)?   E.g., new product/service, new market, new business model What is the time horizon?   Should be for the organization of one of the group members. For what part of the organization is this? E.g., whole organization, specific division/unit, geographical location, department? Short enough to create probable scenarios but long enough within which important changes will occur What elements of the current situation are important?  Strategy, competitors, technology? 30
    31. 31. Stage 1: “Big Question”  Broad yet strategic query serving as anchor for scenarios   Critical to future of unit/organization now Often emerges from today‟s major challenges    “What keeps you up at night?” “What one question would you ask a real psychic?” Choose “horizon year” as distance into future that scenarios will extend   Short enough that probable, but long enough for impact The further out – the greater suspension of disbelief (the “that won‟t happen” reaction) Conway 2003 31
    32. 32. Examples of the “Big Question”         Should we introduce a completely new product or service? Should we retain our current “value proposition”? Should we integrate our various businesses so they contribute more value to our organization? Does our R&D need redirecting? Should we buy a certain competitor? Should we enter (or exit) a geographical market? What competences do we need in the future? How is our competitive advantage affected by developing events? 32
    33. 33. Schedule  Thursday afternoon     Lecture: Introduction to scenario planning Groupwork: UPS Case Guest Lecture: Mats Lindgren, Founder and CEO, Kairos Future Friday morning   Groupwork: Scenario planning Group presentations and discussions 33
    34. 34. How to conduct scenario planning?  Stage 1: Orientation - what is key focal issue?   Stage 2: Exploration - what are the driving forces?     2x2 matrix based on two axes of critical uncertainties Four plausible, alternative scenarios and their characteristics and narratives Stage 4: Options – What are the robust strategies?   Trends that likely to affect, influence, and shape key focal issue (PESTEL), predetermined trends and uncertainties Uncertainties that most likely to define or significantly change future ranked by uncertainty and importance Stage 3: Scenarios - What scenarios build the framework?   Important long-range consequences for organization Implications of scenarios for key focal issue and organization Stage 5: Integration - What are the early warning signals?  Leading indicators and scenarios used to evaluate strategic options Note on Strategic Planning, HBSP 34
    35. 35. Stage 2: Building blocks for scenarios Drivers of change Key uncertainties Basic trends Rules of interaction Multiple scenarios Schoemaker
    36. 36. Macro environment PESTEL International/ national economy Politics and government Industry Social and Demographic structure Legal structure Company Environment Technology 36
    37. 37. PESTEL – A closer look  Political                  Population demographics Income distribution Social mobility Lifestyle changes Attitudes to work and leisure Attitudes to consumerism Levels of education Changes in values/attitudes Education conditions Work environment conditions Health conditions Environmental      Ecology Pollution conditions ”Green” energy Energy conservation Waste handling Economic        Socio-cultural   Global, regional, and national political development (administration, political parties) Taxation policy Foreign trade regulations Labour market politics Government stability     Technological        Business cycles GNP trends Interest rates & Exchange rates Money supply Inflation Unemployment Wage level Private consumption and disposable income Public finances Energy availability and cost Government spending on research Government and industry focus of technological effort New discoveries/development Speed of technology transfer Rates of obsolescence New patents and products Legal    Development in price and competitive legislation Labour market legislation Product safety and approvals 37
    38. 38. Some search tips  Global scenarios for 2025     Futures studies organizations      Shell International Limited U.S. National Intelligence Council World Economic Forum Decision Strategies International Institute for the Future Kairos Future McKinsey Global Institute Other tips   Blogs, wikipedia, slideshare, twitter Search words: scenario, foresight, trend, trendspotting, trendwatching, future studies, institute for future
    39. 39. But take a critical perspective of your sources  Author and authority    Accuracy of research and data collection    Author credentials? Publisher credentials? Choice of method? Data collection? Accuracy and objectivity of document    Are trends, findings supported by data, references? Degree of objectivity? Logical conclusions? http://www.qou.edu/english/scientificResearch/eLearningResearchs/developingACritical.pdf 39
    40. 40. Stage 2: Driving forces For the timeframe of your focal issue…  Brainstorm list of PESTEL trends that could impact focal issue Be specific as well as give a direction for each trend, ie a hypothesis on a direction Hi Certain & Critical  Evaluate the identified trends. Important Uncertainties Impact  How predictable?  Degree of impact on focal issue? Lo Lo Hi     Uncertainty What are the Certain & Important trends? What are the Critical Uncertainties? Which 4-5 Critical Uncertainties have the highest uncertainty and highest impact? Adapted from Lindgren & Bandhold 2009 40
    41. 41. How to conduct scenario planning?  Stage 1: Orientation - what is key focal issue?   Stage 2: Exploration - what are the driving forces?     2x2 matrix based on two axes of critical uncertainties Four plausible, alternative scenarios and their characteristics and narratives Stage 4: Options – What are the robust strategies?   Trends that likely to affect, influence, and shape key focal issue (PESTEL), predetermined trends and uncertainties Uncertainties that most likely to define or significantly change future ranked by uncertainty and importance Stage 3: Scenarios - What scenarios build the framework?   Important long-range consequences for organization Implications of scenarios for key focal issue and organization Stage 5: Integration - What are the early warning signals?  Leading indicators and scenarios used to evaluate strategic options Note on Strategic Planning, HBSP 41
    42. 42. Stage 3: Build scenario framework  Test 4-5 most Critical Uncertainties in pairs in scenario framework   Must be very low correlation between pair of uncertainties Develop characteristics for each scenario Uncert A Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Uncert B Uncert A Uncert B 42
    43. 43. Requirements of each scenario       Unlike the present but likely and arguable Internally consistent yet distinct Relevant to the issue or question of interest Tailored to company Recognizable from early and weak signals of change Challenging as it contains some elements of surprise or novelty in directions where organization‟s vision needs to be stretched Adapted from Miesing & Van Ness 2005 43
    44. 44. When writing scenario narratives… Plausible, consistent stories describing the path and environment towards the End State of the scenario framework.  A story needs a title, beginning, middle, and an end.  The difference in scenarios should be clear and the names are an important part of aligning them to different worlds.  A small set of variables will be identical in all scenarios.  Key variables should be quantified and early indicators listed.  Summarize in scenario table to see if really different Who does what, with whom, when, where and why? Adapted from Ringland 2002 44
    45. 45. 45
    46. 46. How to conduct scenario planning?  Stage 1: Orientation - what is key focal issue?   Stage 2: Exploration - what are the driving forces?     2x2 matrix based on two axes of critical uncertainties Four plausible, alternative scenarios and their characteristics and narratives Stage 4: Options – What are the robust strategies?   Trends that likely to affect, influence, and shape key focal issue (PESTEL), predetermined trends and uncertainties Uncertainties that most likely to define or significantly change future ranked by uncertainty and importance Stage 3: Scenarios - What scenarios build the framework?   Important long-range consequences for organization Implications of scenarios for key focal issue and organization Stage 5: Integration - What are the early warning signals?  Leading indicators and scenarios used to evaluate strategic options Note on Strategic Planning, HBSP 46
    47. 47. From Scenarios to Strategy     Scenarios provide „clues‟ about what might be important drivers of change in the future, and how those drivers might interact and affect the organization. Aim is to identify strategies that are robust across all scenarios, given what we know about how the future might develop. Also, to identify „early warning indicators‟ that events in the scenarios are happening – how will we respond? Within the context of the focal issue…. Conway 2003
    48. 48. Strategic implications   What are the main opportunities and threats that each scenario poses for your organization? How well prepared are you (or can you be) to seize these opportunities and avert or minimize the threats? 48
    49. 49. Approaches to Strategy     Robust strategy - Perform well over the full range of scenarios considered - “Blue Chip” Flexible - Keep options open and / or wait for as long as possible before committing - “Hedging” Multiple coverage - Pursue multiple strategies simultaneously until future becomes clear - “Scattergun” Gambling - Select one strategy which works very well, but in only one or two scenarios - “Bet the Farm” Conway 2003
    50. 50. “Bet the Farm” is the common default   In the absence of well-developed set of scenarios, single-point forecasting and / or a reluctance to allow uncertainty (i.e., the “predict and control” mentality) leads to a (usually unconscious) projection of an “official” future, which is the one assumed to be coming ... This approach is functionally equivalent to (and an unconscious form of) the Gambling / “Bet the Farm” approach Conway 2003
    51. 51. From Scenarios to Decision / Strategy  Examine what could happen if these scenarios become reality, and what that can mean to your organization. Consider both immediate and longer-term consequences for your organization for each of the scenarios.  What are the main opportunities and threats each scenario poses for your organization?  List contingencies that should be put in place now to deal with these scenarios.  Develop a robust strategy that is resilient and viable regardless of which scenario actually does occur. Consider the following:  Given these possible futures, what is your overall assessment of the organization‟s strategy?  Where is your strategy vulnerable? What major modifications do you recommend to the strategy? Will you be flexible to change this strategy in response?  How will you know which scenario is actually unfolding? What are the “flash points” or “sign-posts” (either metrics or events)? Which key indicators must occur for that scene to become reality?  When should your vision change in response to environmental shifts?   51
    52. 52. 52
    53. 53. How to conduct scenario planning?  Stage 1: Orientation - what is key focal issue?   Stage 2: Exploration - what are the driving forces?     2x2 matrix based on two axes of critical uncertainties Four plausible, alternative scenarios and their characteristics and narratives Stage 4: Options – What are the robust strategies?   Trends that likely to affect, influence, and shape key focal issue (PESTEL), predetermined trends and uncertainties Uncertainties that most likely to define or significantly change future ranked by uncertainty and importance Stage 3: Scenarios - What scenarios build the framework?   Important long-range consequences for organization Implications of scenarios for key focal issue and organization Stage 5: Integration - What are the early warning signals?  Leading indicators and scenarios used to evaluate strategic options Note on Strategic Planning, HBSP 53
    54. 54. Monitoring for early warning signals B Cycle 36 Cycle 25 Cycle 3 C Cycle 2 Cycle 1 A 2004 Year 1 Monitoring helps project the long term mean towards one scenario and also the shorter term variations/disruptions in individual forces Schoemaker D Strategic Decision Point & Option Execution 2014
    55. 55. How to conduct scenario planning?  Stage 1: Orientation - what is key focal issue?   Stage 2: Exploration - what are the driving forces?     2x2 matrix based on two axes of critical uncertainties Four plausible, alternative scenarios and their characteristics and narratives Stage 4: Options – What are the robust strategies?   Trends that likely to affect, influence, and shape key focal issue (PESTEL), predetermined trends and uncertainties Uncertainties that most likely to define or significantly change future ranked by uncertainty and importance Stage 3: Scenarios - What scenarios build the framework?   Important long-range consequences for organization Implications of scenarios for key focal issue and organization Stage 5: Integration - What are the early warning signals?  Leading indicators and scenarios used to evaluate strategic options Note on Strategic Planning, HBSP 55
    56. 56. Prepare a max 10 min presentation Some elements to include…       Key focal issue and time horizon Critical uncertainties that most likely to define or significantly change future ranked by uncertainty and importance Scenario framework with four scenarios and accompanying narratives Implications of scenarios for key focal issue and organization Early warning signals Next steps – Communication in organization?
    57. 57. Sources and readings                   A Note on Scenario Planning, Harvard Business School. Strategic Planning at UPS, Harvard Business School Case. Six Rules for Effective Forecasting, Saffo, P. Harvard Business Review, 2012. The Current State of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques, foresight, 2007. Read about the PESTEL analysis (also known as STEEP, PESTLE, PEST, STEP) framework on the internet, e.g., http://pestelanalysis.com/. Scenario Planning: The Link between Future and Strategy, Lindgren, M. & Bandhold, H. Palgrave Macmillan. Eyes Wide Open: Embracing Uncertainty through Scenario Planning, July 22, 2009 in Knowledge@Wharton, https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/1081542/file/1081543.pdf. Getting into Your Competitor‟s Head, H. Courtney, J.T. Horn, & J. Kar, McKinsey Quarterly, 2009, 1, http://bit.ly/ReMZ1X. The Ambidextrous Organisation, J. Birkinshaw. AIM Report, http://bit.ly/S02Gen. Scenario-based Strategy Maps, F. Buytendijka, T. Hatch, & P. Michel, Business Horizons, 2010, 53, 335-347, http://bit.ly/Sm5srs. The Black Swan: The Impact of the highly Improbable, Taleb, N. Random House Publishing Group. Minitrends: How Innovators & Entrepreneurs Discover & Profit From Business & Technology Trends: Between Megatrends & Microtrends Lie MINITRENDS, Emerging Business Opportunities in the New Economy. Vanston, J. H. & Vanston, C. Technology Futures. Trends in Connectivity Technologies and Their Socio-economic Impacts, J. Cave, C. Van Oranje, R. Schindler, A. Shehabi, Ph-B. Bruscher, N. Robinson, Final report of the study: Policy Options for the Ubiquitous Internet Society, For DG Information Society and Media, 2009, http://bit.ly/RuEmyk. Foundations of Futures Studies, History, Purposes, and Knowledge - Volume I, W. Bell. New Jersey: Transaction Publishers. Anatomy of a Trend. H. Vejlgaard. McGraw-Hill. The Trend Forecasterʼs Handbook. Martin, R. Laurence King Publishers. The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economics, Society and Nations. Surowiecki, J. Anchor Books. Additionally, you should regularly read strategy and future-related articles in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Forbes, Wired, etc., as well as on online sites and blogs such as Mashable, Six Pixels of Separation, etc. I also encourage you to use Twitter applications, such as Tweetdeck or Hootsuite, and groups/online forums such as those on Facebook and LinkedIn, to follow strategy-related topics. 57

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