Before we start my presentation we’re going to look at Einstein’s Question. (Click) My data is the result of posing questions we’ll try to answer– but before launching into these questions let’s look at Einstein’s Question.
I think it can be said that our market mirrors a past market and I’m using here a graph of the Portland market from April ’02 to April 2012.It shows the Average Sale Price of various market years and if we intersect the market as of April of 2012 (Click) we see it is basically the same market experienced in April of 2005. (Click) If we take the statistics regarding Charbonneau Year Ending April 2005 does it reflect statics we know exist in our market today. (Click & Read first line of data)(Click and read second line of data) I think this gives us pretty good indication that our average home values today are those values Charbonneau experienced in April 2005. (Click)
(Read the Question) In looking at this data I included a prior year to Year Ending April of 2007 to simply show the market reached its zenith in 2007. In looking at market activity each year thereafter it is very evident our market started on its downward trend and shows an upward tick this past 12 months. (Click) I think it is interesting to note the Average DOM which is the average days on the market. Again they reflect the struggle to move inventory into the buyer’s side of the market. (Click) The last column is very telling as we see prices slipping as the market begins to deteriorate to what we see today. (Point out red figure and bottom figures)
(Read Question) (Click) Let’s look at the numbers. 110 Homes Sold at the height of the market in YTD April 2007. (Click) 80 Home Sold YTD April 30, 2012. (Click) Let’s throw in some headings regarding Property Type, How many Sold, DOM, Averages List & Sold Prices and the % of Sold Price to List Price --- A mouth full. (Click) Here is data regarding condos for both 2007 and 2012. (Comment on longevity of DOM & Sold Price comparison) (Click) For attached homes --- again some disappointing figures and time on the market.(Click) Detached homes for the same two periods show how much values have dropped and just how long it takes to go from listing to sold. Finally lets look at an important figure as to why homes linger on the market (Click) In the upper set we see how close the final price is to the Original List Price – (Click) What do these two columns have in common?? The left columns is a direct reflection of the column on the right. The figures on the right reflect the difference between the sold price and the ORIGINAL LIST PRICE. Here the catch. The further from reality, meaning where the market is in the eyes of buyers and solid comps, the longer DOM. (Click) In this column we have a sharp tick downward in our percentages and one of the reasons we have homes on the market today that linger under a serious adjustment is made to price.
Considerations when voting to restrict rentals:Fairway Village - Two condos listed & could have sold both within months of original listing if rentals were allowed. 1. A couple who wanted to occupy a condo after spending one year living in Hawaii but wanted to rent it for 12 months and another offer that couldn’t be considered was by a real estate agent who wanted a condo for investment.One still and the market and one pending after , are empty and their owners both live at SpringRidge. They have been listed over a year and .
(Read the Question. Click) At the end of the month of May we had 31 Actives, 10 pending and 9 homes that sold. What I have put together here is a comparison of May’s numbers against the average of the last 12 months prior to May to give May somewhat of a picture as to performance. Using the same heading as our previous slide let’s look at the three Property Types. (Click) Only a couple condos sold but DOM are down somewhat from 219 to 196 (Click) -- Our Ave. List and Sold Prices are down from the average (Click) --- And our percent of sold price to Listing Price is a little under our 12 month average. (Click) Overall some disappointing numbers but again, only a couple sales to pull from. (Click) Let look at Attached Homes where we find some encouraging stats over YTD 4/30. DOM down substantially, Ave list and Sold price up and a jump in our percentage of Sold Price to List Price (Click) with the arrows pointing in the directions we want to see. (Click) Only 3 Detached sales and we have a disappointing trend here if it were to continue. (Click) All our numbers are moving away from our YTD averages. (Click) We do see the percent of Sold Price to Original List price has improved dramatically helping possibly to lower DOM for both the condos and the Attached homes sales. Our last column of percent Sold Price to Original List Price are up in the 90+ percent which in 2 of the three examples DOM were reduced having perhaps some help by pricing of homes closer to the market value as mentioned previously. (Click)
I can’t answer whether this has anything to do with tonight but it does give us something to think about.Let’s start with our first Question: Click
David Mendenhall Broker, Premier Property Group Putting Meat on the Bone: What are Charbonneau’s real estatesales, home values, rentals, vacancies and foreclosures since the height of the market?
Question: Does Charbonneau’s Market Today Mirror a Past Market?5/1/04 to 4/30/05 126 Homes Sold in Ave. 54 Days Ave. List $288K Ave. Sold $283K5/1/11 to 4/30/12 80 Homes Sold in Ave. 198 Days Ave. List $290K Ave. Sold $275K
Question: Since the Height of the Charbonneau Market to What Degree Have Prices Changed?Start Date End Date No. Sold Ave. DOM Ave. Sold PriceMay 2005 April 2006 97 40 $369,000May 2006 April 2007 110 73 $382,000May 2007 April 2008 64 84 $326,000May 2008 April 2009 47 140 $300,000May 2009 April 2010 46 211 $301,000May 2010 April 2011 50 259 $308,000May 2011 April 2012 80 198 $275,000
Question: What Has Been the Price Impact on Charbonneau’s Property Types Since the Height of the Market?110 Homes Sold May 1st, 2006 to April 30th, 2007Property No. DOM Ave. List Ave. Sold % of Sold % of SoldType Sold Price Price Price to List Price to OLPCondo 32 76 169,000 166,000 98% 95%Attached 33 48 447,000 443,000 99% 98%Detached 45 90 498,000 491,000 98% 94%80 Homes Sold May 1st, 2011 to April 30th, 2012Property No. DOM Ave. List Ave. Sold % of Sold % of SoldType Sold Price Price Price to List Price to OLPCondo 13 219 133,000 129,000 97% 87%Attached 38 152 302,000 283,000 93% 88%Detached 29 250 345,000 328,000 95% 85%
Question: What Percent Have Prices Dropped for Each Property Type in Charbonneau? Condos Attached Detached Height Height Height $166,000 $443,000 $491,000 Today Today Today $133,000 $283,000 $328,000 20% 36% 34% Reduction Reduction Reduction
Question: What are the Numbers Regarding Short Sales, Bank Owned and Vacant Properties Since the Height? Charbonneau Portland Metro Total Sales 397 124,591 Short Sales 3 .007% 4,742 3.8%Bank Owned 22 5.5% 11,618 9.3%Vacant Homes 186 46% 62,429 50%
Question: How Does Allowing Rentals Encourage Real Estate Sales in Charbonneau?First, some reasons HOA’s are reluctant to allow rentals: 1. View Renters as Non-Participants in Community 2. Fear Property Will Receive Less Care 3. Fear Real Estate Market Values Will Be Hurt 4. Fear Rentals Will be Out of ControlRentals Can Encourage Greater Real Estate Sales: 1. Allows Buyers to Time Their Residency 2. Allows Renters to Become Future Buyers by Experiencing Charbonneau’s Lifestyle 3. Allows Investors to Purchase Homes 4. Lessens Seller’s Financial Burden and Lessens Vacancies While on the Market
Question: How Many HOA’s Allow Rentals and Does Restricting Rentals Interfere with the Sale of Homes?Arbor Lake Townhome—Yes, but Considering a Limit on RentalsCharbonneau Homeowners—Yes, Want to Review Any LeaseCharbonneau Village Condo—Yes, but Unofficially Not More Than 10%Fairway Village – No Rentals—Currently a Couple Condos GrandfatheredFrench Prairie Condo—Rental Cap of 25% = 38 UnitsLouvonne—Considering a Limit on Rentals All Other Associations Allow Unrestricted Rentals