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What does economics say about institutions for growth


 A Panel Presentation at the iiG Workshop and CSAE Conference 2012
                   Economic Development in Africa
                        Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
                              March 18, 2012


I.   Approach

     I will briefly recount the story of the formation and evolution of an
     organization, highlight why it succeeded, subsequently identify
     three lessons relevant to the study/impact of institutions for
     growth, and conclude with a couple of implications/suggestions.

     1.   The story of the EEA;

     2.   What can we learn/ surmise from the story;

     3.   Implications to institutions for growth

II. A case study – EEA’s formation and evolution;

     1.   The state of economics in Ethiopia circa 1991

          i.    No economics specific journal;

          ii.   The top university department has no PC;

          iii. Papers published on the Ethiopian economy – very few




                                      1
2.   The state of economics in Ethiopia circa 2012;

     i.   Economic    analysis       on/in     Ethiopia   has    matured
          considerably in the last two decades or so. This is in part
          explained by the following:

             The demand for economic research has grown
              considerably. Reforms and other aspects of policy
              choice generated greater appreciation of the role
              economic research can play. Increasingly, this
              appreciation has led to the use of economic analysis
              as one basis of policy formulation.

             In part as a consequence, the incentives to doing
              research have improved substantially over the years.
              Indeed, we now have a large number people and
              organizations   who       have     specialized    in   doing
              economic research;

             More resources are available to do economic
              research. These include not only funding, but also an
              increasing number of well-trained economists.




                                 2
3.   EEA’s role and transformation - State at formation, Current
         state;


         Item       Establishment            Current (2010)
                         (1991)
  Membership       Less than 100     More than 3000 (Indian
                                     economics        Association,
                                     1917)
  Office         a small office a           fully      functioning
                 manned by a part- Secretariat
                 time staffer
  Assets         a few hundred a 5-story large multi-purpose
                 Birr                building
  Publications   a newsletter        multiple regular publications
                                     including Quarterly Macro-
                                     economic Report, Annual
                                     Economic Report, Bi-annual
                                     Ethiopian Journal Economics,
                                     and conference proceedings
  Dissemination, a            simple regional and international
  communicatio roundtable            conferences     and     many
  n              discussion          thematic discussion fora
  Research                           Ethiopian Economic Policy
                                     Research Institute (EEPRI) -
                                     2000



Many observers have publicly identified EEA as one of the most, if not
the most, successful professional associations in the area of economics
in Africa.




                                   3
III. Impact

   1.   Changed the rules of the game – coordination (information),
        values     (incentives),     memory     (knowledge,   attention,
        coordination) [Impact – Has achieved a change in how
        economics is perceived and done]

        i.    Journal (19 volumes, 38 issues, more than 120 articles);
              Report on the Ethiopian economy (10 volumes since 2001
              – reference materials);

                                            International    Only
                   Journal         EJE
     Period                                    Journal     Ethiopian
                   Articles      Articles
                                               Articles     Authors
  1969-2010             431        114           317          106
  1969-1990                6.3          0              8.5        9.4
  1991-1995                7.7       72.7              2.8       13.2
  1996-2000               16.2       42.9             12.6       18.9
  2001-2005               31.1       22.4             32.8       18.9
  2006-2010               38.7       18.0             43.2       39.6
        ii.   Conferences – 9 annual international conferences on the
              Ethiopian Economy (something like this conference and
              research on African economies)

   2.   High Stature

        i.    Invited to all important public meetings on economic
              policy;




                                      4
ii.   Work    with    international,   national,   and   regional
              organizations   in   the    public,   private,   and   non-
              governmental sectors;

IV. Why

   1.   Circumstances changed for the better

   2.   A group of individuals with vision, commitment – aspiration
        leading to action produced the outcome;

        [I want to quote from the inaugural address of Dr. Eshetu
        Chole, the first president of the EEA. He expressed his vision
        as follows:

        “My vision is that, by the time it celebrates its twentieth
        anniversary, it will have expanded its membership
        substantially; established a reputation as a respectable
        repository of professional knowledge; accumulated a
        distinguished record of research and publications; further
        advanced the cause of public education in economics; earned
        the respect of the public and contributed in several tangible
        ways to the economic advancement of Ethiopia.”]



V. Implications;

   1.   Opportunities matter, but opportunities can be passed or
        opportunities can be ‘endogenously’ created;

   2.   Aspirations matter;


                                      5
3.   Individuals (or leadership) matters – symmetry breaking (the
        mother of all symmetry breakers is the Higgs boson) – they
        provide that marginal input that triggers a change in
        ‘direction’ a system takes;




VI. Implications to institutions for growth

   1.   Building well-functioning organizations is vital to bringing
        about       institutional     change.    Such     organizations
        generate/provide the knowledge (information), induce the
        attention, and enable the coordination necessary for such
        change. Individuals, by themselves, will not do so to the level
        necessary.

        For example, the emergence of relevant independent,
        credible, and professional organizations, such as the EEA, can
        contribute to good policy making via

        i.    The production, updating, and dissemination of economic
              knowledge;

        ii.   The creation of fora for open discussion; and

        iii. The Provision of advice based on rigorous theoretical and
              empirical analysis and open discussion




                                      6
2.   Supporting ‘entrepreneurial’ individuals in the spirit of
     ‘venture capitalists’ may provide a small, but effective,
     alternative with very high returns - regular, domestic, and
     publicized tournaments for the best ideas may be one way.
     Such tournaments can provide powerful incentives in the
     form support and acknowledgement (or recognition);

3.   Theories of institutional change, and economic change more
     broadly, need to recognize the role of aspirations and
     individuals more systematically;




                               7

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What Does Economics Say About Institutions For Growth

  • 1. What does economics say about institutions for growth A Panel Presentation at the iiG Workshop and CSAE Conference 2012 Economic Development in Africa Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse March 18, 2012 I. Approach I will briefly recount the story of the formation and evolution of an organization, highlight why it succeeded, subsequently identify three lessons relevant to the study/impact of institutions for growth, and conclude with a couple of implications/suggestions. 1. The story of the EEA; 2. What can we learn/ surmise from the story; 3. Implications to institutions for growth II. A case study – EEA’s formation and evolution; 1. The state of economics in Ethiopia circa 1991 i. No economics specific journal; ii. The top university department has no PC; iii. Papers published on the Ethiopian economy – very few 1
  • 2. 2. The state of economics in Ethiopia circa 2012; i. Economic analysis on/in Ethiopia has matured considerably in the last two decades or so. This is in part explained by the following:  The demand for economic research has grown considerably. Reforms and other aspects of policy choice generated greater appreciation of the role economic research can play. Increasingly, this appreciation has led to the use of economic analysis as one basis of policy formulation.  In part as a consequence, the incentives to doing research have improved substantially over the years. Indeed, we now have a large number people and organizations who have specialized in doing economic research;  More resources are available to do economic research. These include not only funding, but also an increasing number of well-trained economists. 2
  • 3. 3. EEA’s role and transformation - State at formation, Current state; Item Establishment Current (2010) (1991) Membership Less than 100 More than 3000 (Indian economics Association, 1917) Office a small office a fully functioning manned by a part- Secretariat time staffer Assets a few hundred a 5-story large multi-purpose Birr building Publications a newsletter multiple regular publications including Quarterly Macro- economic Report, Annual Economic Report, Bi-annual Ethiopian Journal Economics, and conference proceedings Dissemination, a simple regional and international communicatio roundtable conferences and many n discussion thematic discussion fora Research Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute (EEPRI) - 2000 Many observers have publicly identified EEA as one of the most, if not the most, successful professional associations in the area of economics in Africa. 3
  • 4. III. Impact 1. Changed the rules of the game – coordination (information), values (incentives), memory (knowledge, attention, coordination) [Impact – Has achieved a change in how economics is perceived and done] i. Journal (19 volumes, 38 issues, more than 120 articles); Report on the Ethiopian economy (10 volumes since 2001 – reference materials); International Only Journal EJE Period Journal Ethiopian Articles Articles Articles Authors 1969-2010 431 114 317 106 1969-1990 6.3 0 8.5 9.4 1991-1995 7.7 72.7 2.8 13.2 1996-2000 16.2 42.9 12.6 18.9 2001-2005 31.1 22.4 32.8 18.9 2006-2010 38.7 18.0 43.2 39.6 ii. Conferences – 9 annual international conferences on the Ethiopian Economy (something like this conference and research on African economies) 2. High Stature i. Invited to all important public meetings on economic policy; 4
  • 5. ii. Work with international, national, and regional organizations in the public, private, and non- governmental sectors; IV. Why 1. Circumstances changed for the better 2. A group of individuals with vision, commitment – aspiration leading to action produced the outcome; [I want to quote from the inaugural address of Dr. Eshetu Chole, the first president of the EEA. He expressed his vision as follows: “My vision is that, by the time it celebrates its twentieth anniversary, it will have expanded its membership substantially; established a reputation as a respectable repository of professional knowledge; accumulated a distinguished record of research and publications; further advanced the cause of public education in economics; earned the respect of the public and contributed in several tangible ways to the economic advancement of Ethiopia.”] V. Implications; 1. Opportunities matter, but opportunities can be passed or opportunities can be ‘endogenously’ created; 2. Aspirations matter; 5
  • 6. 3. Individuals (or leadership) matters – symmetry breaking (the mother of all symmetry breakers is the Higgs boson) – they provide that marginal input that triggers a change in ‘direction’ a system takes; VI. Implications to institutions for growth 1. Building well-functioning organizations is vital to bringing about institutional change. Such organizations generate/provide the knowledge (information), induce the attention, and enable the coordination necessary for such change. Individuals, by themselves, will not do so to the level necessary. For example, the emergence of relevant independent, credible, and professional organizations, such as the EEA, can contribute to good policy making via i. The production, updating, and dissemination of economic knowledge; ii. The creation of fora for open discussion; and iii. The Provision of advice based on rigorous theoretical and empirical analysis and open discussion 6
  • 7. 2. Supporting ‘entrepreneurial’ individuals in the spirit of ‘venture capitalists’ may provide a small, but effective, alternative with very high returns - regular, domestic, and publicized tournaments for the best ideas may be one way. Such tournaments can provide powerful incentives in the form support and acknowledgement (or recognition); 3. Theories of institutional change, and economic change more broadly, need to recognize the role of aspirations and individuals more systematically; 7