The Performance of the Livestock Sector: investigating the supply side challenges

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The Performance of the Livestock Sector: investigating the supply side challenges

  1. 1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE The Performance of the LivestockSector: investigating the supply side challenges Alebel Bayrau Adiam Hagos Ethiopian Development Research Institute Workshop on the Economics of Livestock Jupiter International Hotel November 4, 2011
  2. 2. Outline• Motivation• Policy Initiatives• Performance of the livestock sector• Institutional support• Conclusion
  3. 3. Motivation Three facts 1. Direct impact on household and national economy  food security and poverty reduction  Stabilize foreign reserve  Generate employment opportunity 2. Growing Demand for livestock products (Milk and Meat) both national and international markets (Volume and value):  At national level  Growth in population  Growth in per capita GDP  Growing demand as raw material inputs for the growing industry
  4. 4. Motivation …  Growing Demand at international market (Delgado et al, 1999)Meat and milk consumption increased in Projected increase in meat and milkdeveloping countries (1970s – 1990s) both consumption per year between 1990s -in volume and value terms 2020 2.8%175 million tones >2x the increase in Meat 100 millions tone more by 2020 developed countries compared to 1993. 3.3%$155 billions >2x market value of Milk cereal consumption 223 millions of tones more by 2020 compared to 1993.
  5. 5. Motivation … Fact 3: Huge local resource but very low supply response Existing livestock stock (CSA, 2008/09) Number Per capita holding Ethiopia West Africa Cattle 47,570675 1.76 0.21 Sheep 26,117,272 Goat 21,709428 Contribution of livestock sector (MoARd, 2007) Share of agricultural GDP 30 – 35% Share of total GDP 16% Share of export earning 13%
  6. 6. ObjectiveGeneral objective of this project is to review the overall performance of the livestock sector and its contribution to the economic growth and poverty reduction efforts of Ethiopia.  Examine trends in the performance of the sector focusing on change in per capita stock holding; technology adoption, productivity, livestock feed system as well as institutional support.
  7. 7. Policy Initiatives• Policy and strategy measures  Objective of policy: utilize the available resource to increase its contribution for the socioeconomic development of the country.  Livestock development strategy prepared in 1997 with four major components:  Feed and nutrition  Animal health  Animal breeding  Livestock marketing  4 agricultural extension packages are designed to improve:  Milk production using exotic breed  Meat production using indigenous animals  Egg production through introduction of exotic blood  Honey production using improved management in traditional and modern beehives.  A number of programs and projects have been implemented in relation to these strategies and extension packages (NAIC, FNLDP, SDDP, NLDP, etc
  8. 8. Trends in stock holdinga. per capita cattle holdings
  9. 9. Trends in Per capita sheep holding
  10. 10. Trends in Per capita goat holdings
  11. 11. Trends in Per capita poultry and hives holding
  12. 12. Trends in hh technology adoption
  13. 13. Trends in livestock productivity a. Milk productivity Year Species 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09Average daily milk yield 1.324 1.233 1.357 1.457 1.521 1.35(liter/cow)% change - -6.9 9.6 5.9 7.2 -11.2 Variable 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09Average lactation period ofcows in months 7.78 7.94 8.01 8.51 8.54 8.54
  14. 14. b. Trends in poultry productivity (egg/hen and days/clutch)Egg production per hen 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09Egg Production - Per hen perclutch_ ind 19.19 11.52 19.93 19.89 20.1 % change -40% 73 -0.2 1.1Egg Production - Per hen perclutch_ hybrid 31.34 43.81 38.18 34.32 % change 39.8 -12.8 -10.1Egg Production - Per hen perclutch_Foreign 140.06 99.62 122.51 101.04 90.32 % change -28.9 22.9 -17.6 -10.6 Change in average number of days per clutch for different poultry breeds over the period 2004/05 – 2008/09VARIABLES 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09Average number of daysper clutch_indogenous 19.19 19.59 19.93 19.89 20.1Average number of daysper clutch_hybrid 36.77 43.81 38.18 34.32Average number of daysper clutch_foreign 140.06 105.39 122.51 101.04 90.32
  15. 15. Honey productivity (No. of harvest/year & yield/harvest in kg)Change in honey productivity of different beehives technology (mean number of harvestsper year) over the period 2003/04 – 2008/09Honey productivity 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09Number of harvests/ hive/year- traditional 1.45 1.46 1.50 1.47 1.50 1.51Number of harvests/hive/ year- intermediate 1.45 1.58 1.36 1.51 1.62 1.61Number of harvests/ hive/ year- modern 1.61 1.30 1.42 1.52 1.58 1.67change in honey productivity of different beehives technology (mean honeyproduction/harvest in Kg) over the period 2003/04 – 2008/09Honey productivity 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09Average honeyproduction/harvest- traditional 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.5 4.99 4.88 % change 2.33 6.8 17.0 -9.3 -2.2Average honeyproduction/harvest-intermediate 4.5 6.9 8.6 5.8 8.4 7.98 % change 53.3 24.6 -32.6 44.8 -5Average honeyproduction/harvest- modern 9.5 9.4 11.8 9.9 12.6 13.06 % change -1.1 25.2 -16.1 27.3 3.9
  16. 16. Livestock feed: Type, composition & sourceTrends in Major feed type by livestock over the period 2004/05 – 2007/08 (% ofhouseholds stated using the feed resource) 04/05 07/08Grazing 91.5 95.5- cattleCrop residue 72.2 74.9 - sheepImproved pasture 0.4 0.82 - GoatTrends in Composition of feed over the period 2003/04 – 2007/08 (% of the total feed)Feed type 03/04 07/08 Cattle Sheep Goat Cattle Sheep GoatGrazing 63.5 11.3 15 67.9 26.3 naCrop residue 35 22.1 10 39.4 23.5 naImproved forage 38.3 20 19.1
  17. 17. Change in source of feedProportion of households who stated source of livestock feed (%) 2003/04 2008/09 Cattle sheep Goat cattle sheep GoatOwn 32.7 91.0 61.8 34.2 88.1 65.7propertypurchased 1.6 1.7 28.5 1.4 1.8 21.4Public 40.2 1.4 4.3 37.1 1.7 2.5property
  18. 18. Institutional support 1. Animal health (CSA data) trends in animal health (Mean per household) Health 2003/04 2008/09 status 8 C S G C S GMean Per household 7 6 Afflicted 1.7 3.5 4.6 2.2 2.8 3.8 5 Cattle 4 sheep 3 2 goat Dead 0.9 2.7 3.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1 due to 0 disease dead dead vacinated vacinated Afflicted Afflicted Vaccinat 2.2 1.1 1.7 3.9 4.9 7.0 e 2003/04 2008/09 Health Status
  19. 19. Trends in animal vaccination service (NVI, 2009) Trends in animal vaccination for major animal disease 70,000,000No. Vaccinated 60,000,000 50,000,000 CBPP 40,000,000 30,000,000 CCPP 20,000,000 N.castle 10,000,000 0 AHS FMD 7 9 1 3 5 7 /9 /9 /0 /0 /0 /0 96 98 00 02 04 06 total 19 19 20 20 20 20 Year
  20. 20. Livestock Extension Trends in Number of Livestock Extension Packages Year % of HHNumber of Packages 700 participated 600 in extension 500 Package for milk package 400 300 Package for 2005/6 2.8 200 improved meat 100 Package for 2006/7 2.12 0 improved poultry 2007/8 1.25 Package for /06 /07 /08 /09 05 06 07 08 honey 20 20 20 20 2008/9 1.73 Year
  21. 21. Summary & Conclusion1. The stock of livestock generally increased: per capita (PC), volume & age structure.2. The PC technology adoption has shown significant improvement in exotic cattle and sheep breed but remained the same for hybrid. Also, significant change observed in PC traditional beehives but little change in modern beehives3. Honey productivity (# harvest/yr & yield/harvest) increased significantly. However, no significant but little improvement has been observed in PC milk and poultry productivity;4. No significant improvement observed in feed resource, sources and composition.5. The PC death of livestock due to disease significantly reduced mainly due to a significant improvement in vaccination for major animal disease.6. Livestock extension service, though generally increased in number of packages provided, is extremely low when evaluated in terms of percentage of smallholder farmers participated in the program.
  22. 22. Conclusion• Nationally representative data specific to livestock sector is needed. As it is now, it is difficult, if not impossible, to conduct detail policy analysis in the sector• To enhance the contribution of the sector for poverty reduction, the institutional aspect of the sector, particularly the extension service, need to be strengthened and consider the different production system.
  23. 23. Thank you

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