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The impact of improved seed development: The success story of the Quncho teff variety

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International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). Conference on "Towards what works in Rural Development in Ethiopia: Evidence on the Impact of …

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). Conference on "Towards what works in Rural Development in Ethiopia: Evidence on the Impact of Investments and Policies". December 13, 2013. Hilton Hotel, Addis Ababa.

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  • 1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE The impact of improved seed development: The success story of the Quncho teff variety Bart Minten, Seneshaw Tamiru, Ermias Engeda, and Tadesse Kuma December 13th, 2013 Addis Ababa 1
  • 2. 1. Introduction • There are few success stories on the widespread adoption of improved technologies in Africa and Ethiopia • Due to two reasons: 1/ Few success stories out there; 2/ Measurement error (e.g. measurement of “improved” varieties is not straightforward) • Purpose of the analysis is to better understand the impact of improved varieties in staple food production. 2
  • 3. 2. Background Teff in Ethiopia • Teff is a major crop in Ethiopia: - 20% of all cultivated area, covering 2.7 million hectares and grown by 6.3 million farmers (second most important crop is maize with 15% of cultivated area) - Given relatively low yields, total national production (3.5 million tons) in quantity is lower than maize and sorghum. - Value of production in 2011/12 was 1.6 billion USD, the most important crop in the country. - Value of commercial surplus (CS) 2011/12: 464 million USD, as important as sorghum, maize, and wheat combined; one-quarter less than coffee (600 million USD) 3
  • 4. 3. Data • Stratified random sample at the producer level: - 1,200 farmers interviewed in five major teff production zones (East Gojjam, West Gojjam, East Shewa, West Shewa, South-West Shewa). - These five zones represent 38% of national teff area and 42% of the commercial surplus. • Farmers were asked detailed questions on production practices and adoption of modern inputs
  • 5. 4. The success story of Quncho 1. Quick and widespread adoption of quncho (DZ-Cr-387) - 32% of teff producers ever used quncho; 24% used it in the Meher of 2011/2012 - Number of years since household uses quncho is 2 - For users, 84% of white teff area is allocated to quncho Mentioned advantages of quncho: a. Higher yields; b. Lower seed rates needed; c. Better price; d. More fodder; e. Less lodging
  • 6. Take-off of quncho • Quncho only started in 2010; in 2013, 32% farmers used it 100 90 % of quncho adopters 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2011 Year of adoption of quncho 2012
  • 7. 0 10 20 30 40 Adoption of quncho 0 50 100 Transport costs to Addis (Birr/quintal) 150
  • 8. 4. The success story of Quncho 2. Large productivity effects
  • 9. Productivity effects, ceteris paribus • Quncho is used in association with a number of other improved outputs as promoted as part of a “package” • To disassociate the effects of these inputs, run a CobbDouglas production function and use fixed and random effect models (control for household specific effects). • We find that Quncho seeds have 10% higher production than traditional seeds or other improved seeds, ceteris paribus.
  • 10. 4. The success story of Quncho 3. High rates of returns to investments a. Assumptions: - 10% higher yields because of quncho - 50% of the teff farmers adopt - Yearly benefit of 80 million USD - 20 year horizon b. Rate of return: - If costs of development/extension assumed to be 50 million USD, rate of return= 160% - If costs of development/extension assumed to be 200 million USD, rate of return= 40%
  • 11. 5. What contributed to its success? 1. Public investments a. Seed development • Research on improved teff varieties since the mid50s, only a small number of improved varieties have been released (20 in total) • Quncho is a cross from Magna (DZ-01-196) and Dukem (DZ-01-974); It inherited its white color from Magna and its yield potential from Dukem • Developed by the Debre Zeit Agricultural Research Center
  • 12. 5. What contributed to its success? 1. Public investments b. Seed multiplication - Intensified seed multiplication scheme by research centers - Support to on-farm seed production - Private seed growers encouraged to participate
  • 13. 5. What contributed to its success? 1. Public investments c. Extension • Large investments in extension efforts % Received a visit of an agricultural extension agent in the last 2 years In last 12 months: Farmer visited a demonstration plot of teff Farmer visited a government office of agriculture and discussed teff issues Farmer knows the recommended fertilizer use on teff plots 74 37 27 51
  • 14. 5. What contributed to its success? 2. Market orientation - Urbanization (1.2 million more people in Addis), income growth and economic superior characteristics of teff (doubling of income, 110% increase in teff consumption expenditure); These factors combined might have led to doubling of commercial surplus into Addis in last 10 years - White teff increasingly demanded (mostly preferred by richer households)
  • 15. 5. What contributed to its success? - White and magna teff preferred by the urban and richer population Consumers Poorest Middle Richest income Type of teff bought (%) Red Mix White Magna Total 23 64 11 2 100 5 35 50 9 100 3 5 35 57 100
  • 16. 6. Implications 1. Despite quncho take-off, major room for improved seed development: a. lodging resistant varieties, more attention to taste preferences (quncho suffers from drying out disadvantage), disease and pest resistant varieties. b. More sophisticated techniques of breeding 2. Better knowledge on other technologies to improve teff productivity needed, i.e. row planting, transplanting, response to fertilizers that contain zinc and copper, minimal tillage 16
  • 17. 6. Implications 3. Can the quncho success story be applied to other cereals? Possible. However, unique case of teff : a. Success because not that many improved teff varieties available b. Strong and increasing market demand for teff, and especially white teff 4. Cultivar improvements are needed but so are further agronomy work, crop management, and natural resource conservation