INSTITUTEUrbanization and Spatial Connectivity in Ethiopia: Urban Growth Analysis Using GIS

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The 4th ESRI-Eastern Africa Conference, Addis Ababa, September 25, 2009

The 4th ESRI-Eastern Africa Conference, Addis Ababa, September 25, 2009

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  • 1. Urbanization and Spatial Connectivity in Ethiopia: Urban Growth Analysis Using GIS Mekamu Kedir and Emily Schmidt INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 2. Introduction The Rural Urban Landscape in Ethiopia • Of the estimated 73 million people living in Ethiopia (2007), • 84% live in rural areas and with primarily income from agriculture • 16% live in urban areas • These are mostly located in the highland areas that comprise approximately 35% of Ethiopia‟s territory • Urbanization rates differ according to methodologies and the database utilized: • United Nations: 14.9% urban • World Development Report:10.9% urban • Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia: 16% urban • By comparison, the SSA average is 30% urban • Ethiopia‟s non-agricultural sectors are also small relative to other countries in SSA • In 2006/07 output of non-agricultural sectors contributed 54 % to GDP • Non-agricultural sectors contributed 85 percent to GDP in SSA (and 75 percent of GDP in low income countries in SSA) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 3. Introduction • The Central Statistical Agency defines urban areas as: • Localities greater than 2000 inhabitants • Administrative capitals of regions, zones, and woredas • Localities with at least 1000 people doing non-agricultural activities, and / or areas where the administrative official declares the locality to be urban • Given these definitions, urban areas do not remain constant between census years • With this study we provide a consistent definition of urban areas which can be compared over time, across countries and within national boundaries INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 4. Introduction • In order to standardize urbanization measurements, we use methodology developed by Uchida and Nelson (2009) which incorporates a series of GIS data and analyses including: • Travel time rasters, • Population density • Proximity to cities greater than 50,000 • We identify urban areas spatially using specific thresholds: • A population density greater than 150 people per km2; • Populations located within 1 hour travel time to a city of at least 50,000 people. • City centers of at least 50,000 people INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 5. Data and Methods This study uses: • GIS road network data from each Ethiopian census year (1984,1994,2007) • Population data from each Ethiopian census year • Population density grids: • Landscan • GRUMP (Global Rural and Urban Mapping Project, Columbia University) • Other biophysical data to create a travel time grid: • land cover, rivers, water bodies and elevation and slope INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 6. Data and Methods In order to measure travel time to a major city: Estimation of Travel Times • A series of GIS layers are merged into a „friction layer‟ which represents the time required to cross each pixel • Road type and class • Paved – all weather • Paved – dry weather • Gravel – all weather • Gravel – dry weather • Earth • Waterbodies • Landcover • Slope INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 7. Data and Methods: data reclassification Road network Slope Land cover and lakes Rivers Cities INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 8. Data and Methods Travel time This friction layer is then used as an input into the “Cost Distance” function in ArcGIS 9.2 in order to compute the travel time in minutes from each pixel to the nearest designated populated place. In our study we analyzed travel time to cities of 50,000 people or more. Road investments in Ethiopia greatly reduced travel time between 1984 and 2007, especially in the highlands INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 9. Travel time 1984 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 10. Travel time 1994 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 11. Travel time 2007 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 12. Data and Methods Agglomeration Index Once travel time is calculated to each major city for each census year, we are able to incorporate the cost distance raster into an agglomeration index measurement: Urban population is determined using the criteria: • Within an area of a population density of at least 150 people per square kilometer (calculated GRUMP and LandScan population density grids and adjusting for population growth • Within a city of 50,000 people or within one hour travel time to a city of at least 50,000 people INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 13. Data and Methods: Population Density GRUMP population density grid GRUMP (Global Rural- Urban Mapping Project) human settlement data is available and applying UN growth rates, population was estimated for 2000 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 14. Data and Methods: Population Density LandScan population density grid LandScan estimates the large area population density and spatially allocates these data to key infrastructure while controlling for topography INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 15. Data and Methods: Population Density Average of GRUMP and LandScan Following the Uchida and Nelson (2008) methodology, we average the population density grids for GRUMP and Landscan in order to take into account specific features such as urban areas and road infrastructure. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 16. Results Agglomeration Index 1984 In 1984, Addis Ababa and other larger cities were primarily confined to its city administrative boundaries. There were only a few cities with greater than 50,000 people Limited road networks and more dispersed population characterized the demographic landscape. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 17. Results Agglomeration Index 1994 By 1994, Ethiopia‟s cities grew, and the country‟s transportation network expanded Urban corridors were formed between Sebeta in the southwest and Bishoftu to the southeast, linking to Nazareth Population growth and improved transportation infrastructure in Shashamene and Awasa also facilitated linkages to form an urban network between Oromia and SNNP regions. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 18. Results By 2007, urban linkages were Agglomeration Index 2007 clearly visible throughout Oromia, SNNP, and Amhara regions. Addis Ababa expanded to connect Sebeta and Bishoftu, and Asela in the South. Addis Ababa also connected to Ambo in the west, and Debre Berhan in the east Hosaena linked to Sodo and Shashamene Linkages between Arba Minch and Sodo were also forming Jimma had grown into a southwestern hub with opportunities to link with Nekemte toPOLICYnorth. INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD the RESEARCH • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 19. Results • Since the previous census in 1994, new cities have been created, and economically viable cities have experienced large growth in population count and density • Given that growth in the number of cities with at least 50,000 people mainly occurred in the four major regions, we find that increased urbanization rates are primarily confined to these regions • The city administrative areas, of Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa, as well as Harari, a small urban region, experienced the greatest urbanization from 1984 to 1994. • From 1994 to 2007, Addis Ababa and other urban areas expanded significantly into other regions. • Given improved travel time between major cities, as well as increased population density on these corridors, urban areas in Ethiopia look more like networks in 2007 than the isolated communities typical of the 1984 urban landscape INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 20. Results Larger cities have emerged over the 3 census years, especially in Oromia, Amhara and SNNP regions Number of cities over 20 and 50 thousand people during the census years Cities in 1984* Cities in 1994 Cities in 2007 Region Over 20,000 Over 50,000 Over 20,000 Over 50,000 Over 20,000 Over 50,000 Tigray 1 1 5 1 10 3 Oromia 7 3 17 4 32 8 Amhara 5 3 7 3 18 7 SNNP 4 0 7 1 18 5 Gambella 0 0 0 0 1 0 Benishangul - 0 0 0 0 1 0 Gumuz Harari 1 1 1 1 1 1 Dire Dawa 1 1 1 1 1 1 Addis Ababa 1 1 1 1 1 1 Somali 1 0 4 1 5 1 Afar 0 0 0 0 0 0 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 21. Results Table 1: Agglomeration Index – Percent of people considered urban by region Total Population Percentage Total Population Percentage Total Population Percentage (thousands) Urban (thousands) Urban (thousands) Urban Regions 1984 1994 2007 Addis Ababa 1,423 61.2 2,113 85.5 2,738 99.3 Afar 780 - 1,061 - 1,411 - Amhara 10,686 2.0 13,834 3.7 17,214 7.5 Benishangul-Gumuz 351 - 460 - 671 - Dire Dawa 158 20.3 252 58.2 343 66.3 Gambella 172 - 182 - 307 - Harari 82 55.2 131 76.2 183 86.0 Oromia 14,016 1.7 18,733 4.6 27,158 9.2 SNNP 7,501 - 10,377 2.2 15,043 21.1 Somali 2,006 0.2 3,199 1.6 4,439 1.9 Tigray 2,692 2.0 3,136 3.8 4,314 8.0 Ethiopia 39,869 3.7 53,477 7.1 73,919 14.2 • Addis Ababa (24%), Dire Dawa (38%) and Harari (21%) experienced the greatest urbanization from 1984 to 1994 • From1994 to 2007 the change in urban share was less than the previous decade for Addis Ababa (14 %), Dire Dawa (8%) and Harari (10%) • All other regions experienced greater urbanization from 1994 to 2007 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 22. Population density and urban growth in 1994 Limited urbanization (2.2%) is present in SNNP region in 1994 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 23. Population density and urban growth in 2007 City growth, as well as more networked infrastructure increased urbanization rates in SNNP almost 20% INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 24. Results Percent population connected to a city of at least 50,000 people in 1994 Region Access < 1 Access 1-3 Access 3 - 5 Access 5 - 10 Access > 10 hour hours hours hours hours Tigray 3.7 3.4 16.2 47.7 29.0 Afar - - - 5.6 94.4 Amhara 2.8 8.0 18.1 44.5 26.6 Oromia 5.3 7.7 20.6 36.7 29.8 Somali 8.0 - - 11.0 81.1 Benishangul-Gumuz - - - 11.2 88.8 SNNP 3.4 7.3 26.9 39.6 22.9 Gambella - - - - 100 Harari 100 - - - - Addis Ababa 100 - - - - Dire Dawa 100 - - - - Ethiopia 8.4 6.4 18.2 36.0 31.0 • In 1994, all of the inhabitants in Gambella region were more than 10 hours travel time to a city of at least 50,000 people • Overall, 31% of the population in Ethiopia was more than 10 hours away from a major city INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE • In the four main regions, more than 50% of the population was over 5 hours travel time from a city
  • 25. Results Travel Time: Percent point change in access to a city from 1994 to 2007 Region Access < 1 Access 1 - 3 Access 3 - 5 Access 5 -10 Access > 10 hour hours hours hours hours Tigray 7.13 12.01 (3.72) 5.98 (21.39) Afar - - - 4.11 (5.89) Amhara 2.23 14.68 18.94 (12.49) (23.35) Oromia 3.74 10.40 15.84 (8.88) (21.10) Somali - - - 2.62 (2.61) Benishangul-Gumuz - - - 17.91 (17.91) SNNP 9.17 45.37 (14.59) (21.56) (18.39) Gambella - - - - - Harari - - - - - Addis Ababa - - - - - Dire Dawa - - - - - Ethiopia 4.10 17.12 7.54 (9.93) (18.83) • No improvement was experience in Gambella region between 1994 and 2007 • Population over 10 hours in the main four regions improved by at least 18% • Only 2.6INTERNATIONAL the population in Somali region decreased travel time to INSTITUTE10 hours percent of FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH under over the 13 year period.
  • 26. Results Difference in travel time to a city of at least 50,000 between 1994 and 2007 New gravel roads built between Kebri Dehar and Gode; and Harar and Imi eased access constraints in Somali region considerably. Although access has improved considerably, populations remain very remote (78 percent of the population in Somali region is still further than 10 hours from a major city). Extended evaluation of nascent corridors between Jijiga and Kebri Dehar, and between Harar – Imi – Gode, could be undertaken to understand the tradeoffs of investing in these areas INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM
  • 27. Conclusions • Ethiopia has placed a primary emphasis on rural and agricultural led development; nonetheless, the country continues to urbanize and agglomeration economies are beginning to link and form corridors of economic growth. • Improved transport within Ethiopia has facilitated greater mobility of capital, goods, and people, and incentivized population clustering along major transportation routes • Improvements in road infrastructure between large cities, as well as increases in population density along these corridors, have increased urbanization rates (agglomeration indices) from 3.7 to 14 percent over the last 2 decades • This dramatic transformation in the economic landscape is likely to continue, with important implications for future economic growth and public investments in infrastructure. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM