High Potential Agricultural Growth Areas

High Potential Agricultural Growth Areas: Alternative Approaches and Considerations A discussion with the AGP Team IFPRI: ESSP-II May 18th, 2009 Emily Schmidt GIS / Rural Economic Knowledge Support Systems Coordinator e.schmidt@cgiar.org Mengistie Kindu EIAR Forestry Research Center, GIS Specialist mengistiek@yahoo.com

Outline: – Spatial overview of Ethiopia – Crop suitability analysis – Concluding observations

16% of the population is defined as urban, or lives in a town of at least 5,000 people

Topography in Ethiopia is varies widely, even across small areas

Annual rainfall varies across space Rainfall is highest and least variable in the western part of the country and the western slopes of mountains

Permanent rivers flow primarily in the highlands, but also in some lower elevation areas

In July through September, seasonal rivers / streams form throughout the country

Potential for irrigation is limited to specific areas given the varied terrain that characterizes Ethiopian topography

Primary transportation networks are concentrated in the highland areas and specific international corridors

Population density follows the primary road network Note: high population density in SNNP region

Transportation measured in market access displays large areas of remoteness (>10 hours travel to a city of 50k)

Even with planned regional road upgrades, much of the country remains disconnected to markets • Less than 1% of the population of any region would improve their access to less than 1 hour • An extra 530,000 people (3.7% of regional population) in SNNP would be within 3 hours travel time of a city after regional road improvement.

Change in market access given modeled regional road upgrades Access to Cities of 50,000 Population (in thousands) 2006 Road Infrastructure Region Total Access < 1 Access < 3 Access < 5 Access > 5 Population hour hours hours hours Tigray 4,113 323 1,098 2,343 1,770 Amhara 18,365 1,243 4,510 12,020 6,345 Oromia 25,492 1,409 5,090 12,716 12,776 SNNP 14,313 328 3,270 8,915 5,397 Addis Ababa 2,805 2,149 2,805 2,805 - Other Regions 6,711 772 457 809 5,902 Total 71,799 6,225 17,230 39,609 32,190 Percent population change in access with modeled upgrades on main regional roads Region Total Population Access < 1 Access < 3 Access < 5 Access > 5 (thousands) hour hours hours hours Tigray 4,113 0% 2.76% 9.76% -9.76% Amhara 18,365 0% 2.92% 2.97% -2.97% Oromia 25,492 0.60% 0.31% 4.17% -4.17% SNNP 14,313 3% 3.71% 6.01% -6.01% Addis Ababa 2,805 0% 0% 0% 0% Other Regions 6,711 0% 4.89% 0.70% -0.70% Total 71,799 0.73% 2.21% 4.06% -4.06%

Traditional agro-ecological zones • Wurch Belt: No rainfed crops grow n •Frost is frequent, and afro-alpine grasslands dominate. • Dega Belt: Barley, wheat, and pulses grown •No teff or maize expected to grow in this belt. • Weyna Dega Belt: All major rainfed crops grown, particularly teff and maize grown •Lower Weyna Dega is suitable for cash crops such as coffee and tea •Kolla Belt: Sorghum is the dominant crop grown and teff and maize if rainfall permits •Warmer temperature, with higher rainfall variability and recurring drought conditions. •Berha Belt: no rainfed cultivation possible •Large-scale irrigation systems along major rivers have been developed, particularly along the Awash River.

Major crops in the traditional AEZs • Dega Belt: Barley, wheat, and pulses • Weyna Dega Belt: Teff and maize -Lower Weyna Dega: Coffee and tea • Kolla Belt: Sorghum -Teff and maize if rainfall permits

In general, transportation infrastructure follows high suitability areas •Transportation infrastructure follows many areas delineated by the Weyna Dega Belt •There are certain gaps between major arteries where road infrastructure could be further assessed

“Three” Ethiopias • The three Ethiopias, defined by the Ministry of Agriculture provide area by administrative unit that are either: •Drought Prone •Moisture Reliable •Pastoralist •We further disaggregated these areas to “Five” Ethiopias in order to create separate moisture reliable areas into: •Humid lowland •Moisture reliable – cereals •Moisture Reliable - enset

Further Refining Crop Suitability Areas (EIAR) Methodology • Data used: – Mean Temperature – Length of Growing Period (LGP) – Soils – Slope – Administrative boundary – Others (protection areas i.e. forest priority areas, national parks), and water bodies (lakes) • Two classes Land Suitability were considered based on (FAO 1984): – S1. Highly suitable: land having no significant limitation to sustain application of a given use – S2. Moderately to marginally suitable: land having limitations for sustained application of a given use. The limitation will reduce productivity, and will increase required inputs. • The environmental requirement for each target crop and each suitability class were defined by the findings of LUP&RD as set by FAO-UN

Teff Suitability • S1= NW, W, SW, C • S2 = E EIAR, March 2008

Wheat Suitability • S1= C,NW, W, SW, S • S2 = N, SW EIAR, March 2008

Highland Maize Suitability • S1= NW, W, C, S • S2 = NW,S EIAR, March 2008

Lowland Maize Suitability • S1= N, S • S2 = W EIAR, March 2008

Food Barley Suitability • S1= C, NW • S2 = N, C EIAR, March 2008

Malt Barley Suitability • S1= NW, C, E • S2 = C, NW, E EIAR, March 2008

High suitability belts and traditional AEZs Traditional zones are similar to the agricultural suitability zones following FAO guidelines

Approximately 434,000km² are considered high suitable areas for cereal crops The high suitability areas for cereal crops are primarily in the highlands where rainfall is less variable. Total high suitable area under FAO guidelines is 434,258 km²

16 percent of high suitability areas are remote (more than 10 hours travel time to a city of 50,000) • 84 percent (365,898 km²) of the cereal crop high suitability area is within 10 hours travel time to a city of 50,000 or more people • Specific areas for infrastructure improvement could be further investigated

Given topographic constraints, irrigation will be spatially dispersed along areas with optimal terrain Further investigation in potential irrigable areas in the West could be pursued.

Final observations There are high variations in crop suitability and agro ecology over short distances

Final Observations Highly suitable land is scattered, and in some areas is not linked to markets

Final Observations Road infrastructure and access to markets remains underdeveloped in many areas of the country Current access to markets Access to markets with Regional improvements

Final Observations • Must confirm that location specific appropriate technology is available in proposed investment areas • Irrigated land potential is limited – not by water availability per se, but by land in appropriate basins given topographical constraints • Integrated AGP needs to have sufficient resources to support infrastructure development for agricultural markets – Improved Road Network – Electricity for cold storage chain – Target irrigation projects

Amasegenalehu! (thank you)

High Potential Agricultural Growth Areas

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