Enhancing resilience and promoting development in the horn of africa
ENHANCING RESILIENCE AND PROMOTINGDEVELOPMENT IN THE HORN OF AFRICA - AN EXPLORATION INTO ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT OPTIONS Derek Headey, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, Liang You International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 1
1. BackgroundThe Horn of Africa has witnessed recurring and devastating droughts, seemingly with more frequencyBut vulnerability to drought is only part of the problem – there is an interplay between shocks and underlying stresses (population growth, climate change, shrinking grazing lands)This interplay is not controversial, yet it’s also not well understood which factors matter most
Rough estimates of the number of people affected by droughts in the Horn of Africa: 1970-2010 14000000Number of people "affected" by drought 12000000 Ethiopia Kenya Somalia 10000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1. Background This context has produced some very polemical views: sedentarization vs. preservation of pastoralism Can either view draw on a strong evidence base? IFPRI was asked by USAID revisit that evidence base in the context of some tough questions:1. Can pastoralism be sustained in the face of these stresses and shocks?2. What role should other sectors play in promoting a more resilient development path? In addition to “What to do?” there is “How to do?”
2. Pastoralism Malnutrition prevalence in Ethiopia 2010• ASAL population not 60% Chronic (stunting) Acute (wasting) necessarily poor in 50% relative terms, but very 40% vulnerable 30%• Wealth stems from 20% livestock, but where does vulnerability 10% come from? 0% Regions*
2. Pastoralism• Superficially, livestock mortality is the main cause of vulnerability in ASAL regions, and drought is the main cause of livestock mortality• But why don’t pastoralists destock prior to drought and restock afterwards?• Lack of early warning? Poor access to markets? Cultural attachment to livestock?• Dominant theory is missing markets for destocking, restocking, insurance & credit• So pastoralists hold on to animals more than they would if markets worked
Figure 4. Herd size threshold effects that push households out of pastoralism Source: Lybert et al. (2004).
2. Pastoralism• So the superficial answer is that drought renders pastoralists vulnerable, and has pushed many out• But looking deeper, is it shocks that cause this or the interaction of shocks with various stresses?1. Climate change? Some evidence of drier conditions from warming of Indian Ocean (Funk et al. 2009)2. Rapid population growth? 2-3% per year3. Mobility restrictions? Yes, but could also be related to population growth as well as policies & institutions• So while pastoralists may be rational and efficient, indefinite population growth is not sustainable
2. Pastoralism• What do these facts imply about pastoralism & resilience?1. Pastoralism is too big to fail – in the medium term it is impossible to create enough viable livelihoods in other sectors (and livestock has strong potential)2. Diversification is also essential – resilience of pastoralism can be improved by both better land & water management, but also by diversification3. Critical to understand commercialization: opportunities, constraints, engagement with the poor4. Improve drought management: destocking, restocking, insurance, interactions with commercialization
3. Non-pastoralist livelihoods• The share of pastoralism in ASAL incomes is thought to have been declining for some time• Recent snapshots also tell us that there is variation across space, and significant populations are engaged in sedentary farming (irrigated and non- irrigated) and firewood/charcoal production, smaller shares in trade, various types of labor, shopkeeping, etc.
Table 4. Average income by livelihood category, and by highest and lowestreturns: Somali region 2005 Activity types Birr/ % HHs Most & least lucrative Birr/ month engageda activities month Most lucrative activities Trading 615 3.8% 1. Contraband trader 1,607 Rents 502 <2% 2. Construction worker 1,307 Labor 447 2.4% 3. Carpentry/metal-worker 873 Services 300 10% 4. Khat trader 868 Food /drink proc. 244 8% 5. Selling meat 853 Livestock 216 69.9% Least lucrative activities Crop farming 210 50-55% 60. Charcoal seller 100 Small industry 182 6.3% 61. Firewood collector 88 Begging 123 <2% 62. Basket/mat maker 88 Natural products 117 25-30% 63. Selling eggs 79 64. Beekeeper 77
3. Non-pastoralist livelihoods• Similar picture in Borena region and north-eastern Kenya• Upshot is the following ranking of livelihoods:1. Urban livelihoods pay best2. Irrigated livelihoods second best3. Pastoralism third4. Agro-pastoralism (rainfed farming) distant fourth5. Firewood/charcoal pa a very distant fifth• So seems a good idea to promote urbanization and irrigation – but in both cases there are capacity constraints over the medium term
3. Non-pastoralist livelihoods• For irrigation, it’s important to look back and look forward• Behnke et al. (2010) look at mature irrigation schemes in Afar, since these are the most mature in the region• Several irrigation schemes performed poorly, but sugar generates major income for govt (pastoralism doesn’t)• Looking forward, we use a recent GIS model to estimate profitable irrigation potential for ASALs• Then use these area estimate to calculate some crude back-of-the-envelope estimates of potential job creation
Figure 6. A map of profitable irrigable areas by lowland and highlands of eastern AfricaSource: Authors construction from data and methods described in Liang et al. (forthcoming).Notes: Lowlands (highlands) are defined as areas below (above) 1500 meters in altitude. This is a standard definition in Ethiopia, but may perhaps be too high in Kenya. IRR refers to internal rate of
Table 6. Profitably irrigable area in the ASALs of eastern African countriesaSource: Authors’ estimates based on the data and methods described in Liang et al. (forthcoming).Cost Countries Profitable Rural ASAL % of 6-person rural %of 6-person rural HHsscenarios c that could work 0.5 increase in population in HHs that could work 1 area (Ha)b 2020 (millions) irrigated hectaree irrigated hectareseLow Ethiopia 217,060 22.7 5.7% 11.4%cost Kenya 291,486 19.7 8.9% 17.8% Djibouti 7 0.2 0.0% 0.0% Somalia 14,297 7.3 1.2% 2.4% Total 522,850 49.9 6.3% 12.6%Medium Ethiopia 159,568 23 4.2% 8.4%cost Kenya 152,869 20 4.7% 9.4% Djibouti 7 0 0.0% 0.0% Somalia 8,245 7 0.7% 1.4% Total 320,689 50 3.9% 7.8%High Ethiopia 156,030 23 4.1% 8.2%cost Kenya 108,762 20 3.3% 6.6% Djibouti 0 0 0.0% 0.0% Somalia 1,293 7 0.1% 0.2% Total 266,085 50 3.2% 6.4%
3. Non-pastoralist livelihoods• What about urbanization and migration?• Both ASAL data and surveys from other developing regions tend to show that education is a requirement for successful migration• Education also important for improved governance, reducing fertility rates and female empowerment• The question is how best to deliver these services: boarding schools, mobile schools, distance learning, etc
Figure 7. A map of literacy status in Ethiopia by pastoralist and non-pastoralist woredas
3. Non-pastoralist livelihoods• Other interventions could benefit both pastoralist and non- pastoralist livelihoods• Infrastructure important, but in low population density environments investments need to be very strategic.• On the positive side, roads have been transformative in Borena, Garissa, and other parts of the region• But roads in lowland areas have sometimes been criticized for low rate of usage (low benefit-cost ratios)• Also, there is an argument for more strategic use of space in general. Where should infrastructures be clustered? Where are there dangers of over-clustering?
4. Summing up• An economic interpretation of the evidence suggests that a balance development strategy is needed.• Pastoralism has significant advantages, but major risks – Can commercialization enhance resilience? Can it be pro-poor? What does that package entail?• Resilience of pastoralists & ASAL population as a whole will also require some pastoralists to exit, ideally into urban livelihoods and irrigation• Education and infrastructure most likely the big ticket cross-cutting investments, but innovative service delivery will be key