Demandassessment& supply responsesin
Ethiopia’steff seed system
David J Spielman  Dawit K Mekonnen
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
...
Seed,science,and supply
• How do we think about seed?
• The farmer’s “means of production”
• The embodiment of technologic...
Measuringprogressin seedsystemdevelopment
• Conventional measures of seed system performance
• Seed demand estimates
• See...
Teff seedsupply deficits,*1995/96–2011/12
* Based on official estimates of demand Source: MoA (2012)
-75,000
-65,000
-55,0...
Teff seedsupply deficits by variety,*2010/11
-40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000
Cr-37
D-Z-01-196
Kuncho (D-Z-387)
D-...
Areaunder improved teff, 1995/96–2011/12
Source: CSA (Various years)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50...
Why should farmersbuy seed?
• To obtain better quality seed
• Higher rates of purity, germination
• To obtain a better cul...
What should we measure?
• Research and regulatory system performance
• R&D investment trends, cultivar release rate, regul...
Publicspending on agriculturalR&D,1981–2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Consta...
Averageage of varietiesin production,c. 2010
Crop Average age of
varieties in
production*
(years)
Portion of seed
from new...
Market structure:Sourceof teff seed
86
12
2 0 0
72
16
2
8
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Self/saved
seed
Other farmer ...
Years since last purchase of teff seed,2012
15
11
16
12
5
1 1 1
0
2
5
30
28
12
15
12
2
1 1 1
0 0
2
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3...
Teff seedingrate by farm size
29
38
36
1 1
5
9 8
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Large
farmer
Medium
farmer
Small
farmer...
Whiteteff varietiesunder cultivation
Source: EIAR/IFPRI, Ethiopia ATA Baseline Survey (2012)
N=133
23
3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
60
0...
Non-yieldtraits preferredby teff farmers
46
23
11
2 4
14
1
28
9
29
1 5
28
1
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percentage
Trait/attribute
B...
Policy and investmentpriorities
• Strategic oversight and policy implementation
• Build decision-making tools for informed...
Thank you
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Demand assessment and supply responses in ethiopia's teff seed system

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International Food Policy Research Institute/ Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (IFPRI/ ESSP)and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) Coordinated a conference with Agriculutral Transformation Agency (ATA) and Ministry of Agriculutrue (MoA) on Teff Value Chain at Hilton Hotel Addis Ababa on October 10, 2013.

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Demand assessment and supply responses in ethiopia's teff seed system

  1. 1. Demandassessment& supply responsesin Ethiopia’steff seed system David J Spielman  Dawit K Mekonnen Addis Ababa, Ethiopia October 10, 2013 International Food Policy Research Institute
  2. 2. Seed,science,and supply • How do we think about seed? • The farmer’s “means of production” • The embodiment of technological change • The foundation of an agricultural transformation • A viable investment opportunity • The object of contested rights What role do policymakers play in encouraging both production and innovation that benefit society as whole?
  3. 3. Measuringprogressin seedsystemdevelopment • Conventional measures of seed system performance • Seed demand estimates • Seed production quantities • Seed replacement rates • Certified seed use • Cultivated area under improved seed use Do these measures adequately capture the growth and transformation of a seed system and its benefits for society?
  4. 4. Teff seedsupply deficits,*1995/96–2011/12 * Based on official estimates of demand Source: MoA (2012) -75,000 -65,000 -55,000 -45,000 -35,000 -25,000 -15,000 -5,000 5,000 15,000 Quintals
  5. 5. Teff seedsupply deficits by variety,*2010/11 -40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 Cr-37 D-Z-01-196 Kuncho (D-Z-387) D-Z-01-354 D-Z-01-974 D-Z-01-182 Lakech D-Z-01-1282 Quintals of teff seed Variety * Produced in 2009/10 and supplied for the 2010/11 crop season Source: MoA (2012)
  6. 6. Areaunder improved teff, 1995/96–2011/12 Source: CSA (Various years) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Percentage '000hectares Cultivated area (‘000 ha) Cultivated area (%)
  7. 7. Why should farmersbuy seed? • To obtain better quality seed • Higher rates of purity, germination • To obtain a better cultivar • Yield, stress resistance, taste • To renew temporary genetic gains • Heterosis expression in hybrids • To recover from a disaster • Drought, flood, disease
  8. 8. What should we measure? • Research and regulatory system performance • R&D investment trends, cultivar release rate, regulatory costs • Costs of regulation and regulatory bottlenecks • Production and marketing system performance • Seed quality, cultivar age • Production/distribution costs • Market structure and concentration • Farmer preferences and behaviors • Seed saving trends, trait preferences, adoption determinants
  9. 9. Publicspending on agriculturalR&D,1981–2008 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Constant(2005)US$PPP Source: Flaherty, Kelemework, and Kelemu (2010); ASTI (2013)
  10. 10. Averageage of varietiesin production,c. 2010 Crop Average age of varieties in production* (years) Portion of seed from new varieties** (%) New varieties in production as a % of new varieties released (%) Teff 22.6 3.4 6 Wheat (bread) 13.9 12.7 30 Maize (hybrid)*** 15.1 8.2 57 * Weighted average using quantity produced as weights (see Brennan and Byerlee (1991) **New varieties denotes varieties released since 1999 *** Produced by ESE Source: Authors’ calculations
  11. 11. Market structure:Sourceof teff seed 86 12 2 0 0 72 16 2 8 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Self/saved seed Other farmer Grain trader Cooperative Bureau of Agriculture Percentage Source of seed Black teff White teff Source: EIAR/IFPRI, Ethiopia ATA Baseline Survey (2012) N=1448
  12. 12. Years since last purchase of teff seed,2012 15 11 16 12 5 1 1 1 0 2 5 30 28 12 15 12 2 1 1 1 0 0 2 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 >10 Never Percentage Years Black teff White teff Source: EIAR/IFPRI, Ethiopia ATA Baseline Survey (2012) N=1469
  13. 13. Teff seedingrate by farm size 29 38 36 1 1 5 9 8 18 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Large farmer Medium farmer Small farmer kg/ha White teff farmers 37 46 45 2 0 0 3 6 9 Large farmer Medium farmer Small farmer Black teff farmers Source: EIAR/IFPRI, Ethiopia ATA Baseline Survey (2012) Small farmers: <0.9 ha; medium: , 0.9 to 2 ha; large: >2 ha N=1910 Own-saved seed Seed obtained for free or in barter Purchased seed
  14. 14. Whiteteff varietiesunder cultivation Source: EIAR/IFPRI, Ethiopia ATA Baseline Survey (2012) N=133 23 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 60 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percentage Variety name
  15. 15. Non-yieldtraits preferredby teff farmers 46 23 11 2 4 14 1 28 9 29 1 5 28 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percentage Trait/attribute Black teff White teff Source: EIAR/IFPRI, Ethiopia ATA Baseline Survey (2012) Note: Based on responses to top two preferred traits, excluding yield N=309
  16. 16. Policy and investmentpriorities • Strategic oversight and policy implementation • Build decision-making tools for informed policy making • Research system • Increase investment and reform efforts in research system • Improve equitable access to public research materials Regulatory system • Strengthen seed quality monitoring in the marketplace • Production, distribution, and marketing • Level the playing field: Reallocate public/private roles
  17. 17. Thank you Page 17
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