Crop Production in Ethiopia: A Spatial–Structural Analysis

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Ethiopian Development Research Institute(EDRI) and IFPRI Ethiopia Strategy Support Program 2 (IFPRI-ESSP2) Seminar Series
March 16, 2009

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Crop Production in Ethiopia: A Spatial–Structural Analysis

  1. 1. Crop Production in Ethiopia: A Spatial–Structural Analysis Jordan Chamberlin and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ESSP-II/EDRI Seminar 16 March 2009 Addis Ababa,
  2. 2. Introduction  Motivation • Enhancing food security a policy priority; • Increasing productivity a key ingredient towards food security;  Vital to assess where agricultural production is.  Objectives • Current: To summarise the structure and dynamics of food crop production in Ethiopia over the last decade; • Ongoing: To understand the determinants of the agricultural productivity and its growth.
  3. 3. Outline  Approaches and Data  Current State - the state of crop production, circa 2008 • What is produced; Where is it produced; How is it produced • Dynamics - pattern and sources of growth • Some closing observations
  4. 4. Approaches and Data Approach – Decomposition • What are the relative contributions of acreage expansion and yield increase? • Do changes in crop prices matter a great deal? • Does crop diversification/specialisation contribute much to output growth? Output decomposition dQi Adyi i yidAi Revenue decomposition n n n n dR aiyi pi dA A aiyidpi A ai pdyi A yi pdai i i i 1 i 1 i 1 i 1
  5. 5. Approaches and Data  Geographic disaggregation • Heterogeneity of production and marketing contexts  Domains • Capture initial conditions • Capture potential for growth
  6. 6. + + =
  7. 7.  Zonal level analysis  Simplified domain framework Low-access High-access Low-pop- growth led by (mixed growth) density area-expansion High-pop- growth led by (little growth) density yield-increases
  8. 8. Approaches and Data  Data Dataset compiled from cereal production and price data at the zonal level collected by the Central Statistics Agency (CSA)’s Agricultural Sample Surveys - 1996/97-2007/08 (1989-2000 E.C.).  Caveats • Cereals – acreage, output, food expenditure, calorie intake; • Forty zones of the four regions – Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, and Tigray. (dominant in the production of temporary crops); • Meher season.
  9. 9. Current State Average (2004/2005 – 2007/08 ) Area Cultivated in hectares Production in quintals Crop Number of Share in total Share in total holders Level area cultivated Level production (%) (%) Grain 11,519,148 10,382,365 92.7 140,902,733 79.8 Cereals 11,156,837 8,230,211 73.4 120,629,724 68.3 Teff 5,462,782 2,337,850 20.9 24,079,480 13.6 Barley 3,842,462 1,024,390 9.1 13,264,217 7.5 Wheat 4,118,164 1,439,098 12.8 22,933,077 13 Maize 7,287,931 1,595,238 14.2 33,142,865 18.8 Sorghum 4,253,534 1,429,886 12.8 22,161,808 12.5 Pulses 6,377,027 1,384,499 12.4 14,955,466 8.5 Oilseeds 3,127,131 767,655 6.9 5,317,543 3 Vegetables 4,936,741 106,585 1 4,248,252 2.4 Root crops 4,757,733 174,826 1.6 14,732,919 8.3 Fruit crops 2,658,415 51,078 0.5 4,034,590 2.3 Others (Chat, Coffee) 2,068,262 471,278 4.2 3,634,091 2.0
  10. 10. Current State Average Annual growth rate - 2004/05-2007/08 (1997-2000 E.C.) (%) Yield (quintals Production Area Cultivated Yield (quintals per hectare) Crop (quintals) (hectares) per hectare) Grain 11.8 3.9 Cereals 12.2 4.8 6.2 14.0 Teff 15.9 6.7 7.7 10.2 Barley 0.7 -3.4 4.5 13.0 Wheat 2.1 0.6 1.5 15.9 Maize 18.9 9 7.8 20.6 Sorghum 18.3 7.4 8.9 15.4 Note: Cereal yield is calculated as acreage-share weighted average of the yields of the five major cereals listed in the table – they account for more than 95 percent of cereal acreage and cereal output.
  11. 11. Cereal production 2007/08 Quintals BARLEY MAIZE SORGHUM TEFF WHEAT 1000 - 100, 000 100, 000 - 250, 000 250, 000 - 500, 000 500, 000 - 1, 000, 000 > 1, 000, 000
  12. 12. Cereal area 2007/08 Hectares BARLEY MAIZE SORGHUM TEFF WHEAT 100 - 5000 5000 - 10000 10000 - 50000 50000 - 100000 100000 - 500000
  13. 13. Cereal yields 2007/08 Quintals/hectare BARLEY MAIZE SORGHUM TEFF WHEAT 0 - 5 5 - 10 10 - 15 15 - 20 20 - 30
  14. 14. Current State How? Fertiliser Applied Fertiliser application Share of crop area (%) area (share in (total (quintals per Improved Extension Crop Pesticide total area quintals/ hectare of seed Irrigated package applied cultivated - total fertilizer applied crop area covered crop area %) hectares) applied area) crop area crop area 2007/08 2007/08 2007/08 2007/08 2007/08 2007/08 2007/08 Cereals 39.0 0.45 1.16 4.7 20.8 1.1 14.5 Teff 54.3 0.52 0.95 0.7 30.5 0.7 13.8 Barley 30.5 0.30 0.99 0.6 20.7 1.2 11.0 Wheat 62.1 0.85 1.36 2.9 43.6 0.5 21.9 Maize 32.8 0.54 1.63 19.5 2.9 2.2 21.3 Sorghum 3.1 0.03 1.05 0.1 5.4 1.2 1.4
  15. 15. Current State How – cont’d Average age of holder Proportion of male Median education level Mean household size (years) holders of holder (number of members) (%) (years of schooling) 41.5 80.9 1.1 5.2
  16. 16. Fertilizer use: 2006/07 PERCENTAGE OF HOLDERS USING FERTILIZER BARLEY MAIZE SORGHUM TEFF WHEAT 0 - 20% 20 - 40% 40 - 60% 60 - 80% 80 - 100%
  17. 17. Growth in cereal production Summary – substantial growth over the last decade, the bulk of it in the second half Production Area Cultivated Yield Growth Level Growth Level Year Crop Level (quintals) rate (%) Growth (quintals/ rate (%) (hectares) (1997/98- rate (%) hectare) (1997/98- 2007/08) 2007/08) Barley 7,863,950 681,950 11.5 Maize 19,288,510 1,100,610 17.5 1997-1998 Sorghum 10,697,400 954,740 11.2 Teff 13,073,480 1,747,190 7.5 Wheat 11,067,850 787,720 14.1 Sum 61,991,190 5,272,210 Barley 13,548,071 72.3 984,943 44.4 13.8 19.3 Maize 37,497,491 94.4 1,767,389 60.6 21.2 21.1 2007-2008 Sorghum 26,591,292 148.6 1,533,537 60.6 17.3 54.8 Teff 29,929,235 128.9 2,565,155 46.8 11.7 55.9 Wheat 23,144,885 109.1 1,424,719 80.9 16.2 15.6 Sum 130,710,974 110.9 8,275,743 57.0
  18. 18. Growth in cereal production 1. Output, acreage, and yield levels and growth rates varied widely within and across years – a large part of the latter almost certainly a reflection of rain-fall variability. Acreage Production Yield CV CV CV CV Levels CV Levels CV Levels Growth Growth Growth (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Barley 128.0 2073.2 151.9 4146.2 34.0 2198.6 Maize 104.5 1208.4 121.4 2586.9 34.4 2799.0 Sorghum 111.2 1453.6 119.2 5384.0 47.3 821.3 Teff 105.2 1247.2 120.4 7343.4 34.9 626.6 Wheat 137.8 1002.5 159.4 3661.4 46.2 982.7  Capture variations across space (zones), time (years)
  19. 19. Changes in production: 1996/7 – 2006/7 BARLEY MAIZE SORGHUM TEFF WHEAT
  20. 20. Changes in area: 1996/7 – 2006/7 BARLEY MAIZE SORGHUM TEFF WHEAT
  21. 21. Changes in yield: 1996/7 – 2006/7 BARLEY MAIZE SORGHUM TEFF WHEAT
  22. 22. Growth in cereal production 2. Acreage expansion originates the bulk of the growth in total output during the period, • Out of the sixty crop-domain-period specific pairs of yield and acreage contribution shares, in only twelve did the share of yield was higher. • Uncorrelated crop zonal-level acreage share of a crop and the significance of contribution of yield changes to zonal-level growth in that crop’s output. 3. The relative contributions of acreage and yield changes to output growth were not statistically significantly different across development domains, crop belts, as well as time periods - only exceptions, the output growth contribution of changes in sorghum yield and acreage were different across domains. • Teff the exception - comparable contribution come from acreage and yield increases
  23. 23. Growth in cereal production 4. the contribution of yield growth rises measurably towards the end of the period. Median Contributions of change in crop yield to Year Changes in Quantity of Cereal Output (%) Barley Maize Sorghum Teff 1998/99 49.2 36.8 53.2 48.6 1999/2000 8.1 25.7 19.2 39.2 2000/01 48.0 40.0 25.6 59.5 2001/02 37.1 31.1 26.9 25.3 2003/04 -0.3 29.6 36.7 38.8 2004/05 49.2 75.0 55.1 79.4 2005/06 57.1 67.4 48.9 60.7 2006/07 19.2 21.4 26.6 16.8 2007/08 41.5 30.3 41.9 69.7  Acreage expansion also dominates as a source of growth at the crop level. A striking exception is teff – rising yield contributes more than increased acreage.
  24. 24. Changes in input use (2001/2 – 2006/7)
  25. 25. Some Final Observations  Acreage expansion continued throughout the period covered. • sources of acreage expansion; • and its potential impact, including on other uses of land and consequences thereof (environmental, say) Need to systematically investigate  Significant growth in yields was recorded over time. However: • Cereal yields are still low – less than a fifth of the level in Egypt, less than a third of that in China and Viet Nam; • High dependence on rainfall with negligible irrigation coverage of staple crops production; • Highly undercapitalised with physical capital per land-holder of US$138 – 3000 tractors in use in Ethiopia during 2006 versus 163,000 in Viet Nam; • Meagre human capital stock (measured in terms of education alone), with 64 percent of land- holders not literate and only 6 percent of them having higher than six years of formal schooling. • Only about 40 percent of cereal acreage benefit from chemical fertilizers with intensity of fertilizer use relatively low in comparison with countries like Egypt, Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam.  Pertinent to explore why yields remain and how could they be raised significantly and rapidly.

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