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Cereal Production and Technical Change in Ethiopia
 

Cereal Production and Technical Change in Ethiopia

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IFPRI-ESSP2 Conference

IFPRI-ESSP2 Conference
October 22-24, 2009

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    Cereal Production and Technical Change in Ethiopia Cereal Production and Technical Change in Ethiopia Presentation Transcript

    • Cereal Production and Technical Change in Ethiopia Alejandro Nin-Pratt, Binxing Yu, José Funes and Sinafikeh Asrat Presented by John Hoddinott on behalf of Alejandro Nin-Pratt Paper prepared for the IFPRI – ESSP2 conference Addis Ababa, October 22-24, 2009 Wednesday, November 04, 2009
    • Introduction • Increasing yields is critical for sustaining output growth in Ethiopian agriculture. • Improved agricultural technologies are critical for yield growth • Given this, this presentation focuses on two questions: – What factors assist, or inhibit , the adoption of these technologies – What are the consequences of their adoption for yields • In developing this work, we draw on very rich data, the Agricultural Sample Survey (AgSS), nationally representative data made available to the research team by the Central Statistical Agency Page 2
    • ADOPTION Page 3
    • Trends in the use of fertilizer and improved seeds Area (1000 ha) sown to barley, maize, sorghum, teff and wheat Page 4
    • Page 5
    • What factors are associated with the adoption of fertilizer and improved seeds at the plot level? • Pool data across four years and use logit estimation model to plot level outcomes • Two outcomes – Fertilizer is applied to this plot (=1 if yes, 0 otherwise) – Fertilizer and improved seeds are applied to this plot (=1 if yes, 0 otherwise) • Factors – Time trend (captures secular factors that affect adoption) – Number of oxen available to the plot holder – Suitability of the area for production of the crop grown on the plot (wereda-level aggregate) – Population density per square kilometer (wereda-level aggregate) – All-weather road density in meters per square kilometer (wereda-level aggregate) – Holder used extension services – Holder used credit Page 6
    • Marginal effects of different variables on the probability of adopting fertilizer 0.45 0.4 Year 0.35 Oxen 0.3 Suitability 0.25 Population density 0.2 All-weather road density 0.15 Extension 0.1 Credit 0.05 Improved seed 0 -0.05 Maize Teff Wheat Page 7
    • Marginal effects of different variables on the probability of adopting fertilizer and improved seeds 0.2 0.15 Year Oxen 0.1 Suitability Population density 0.05 All-weather road density Extension 0 Credit Maize Wheat -0.05 Page 8
    • IMPACT Page 9
    • Average cereal yields obtained using different combination of inputs (tons) Fertilizer & local seed Improved seed no fertilizer Improved seed and fertilizer Local seed no fertilizer 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2003 2004 2006 2007 Page 10
    • Difference in yield obtained by holders with access to extension and credit Disaggregated by adopters and non-adopters of modern inputs 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 Adopters Non-adopters Adopters Non-adopters Extension Credit Only differences shown in red are statistically significant Page 11
    • Summary • Based on these preliminary results: – Access to modern crop technologies are “tightly wedded” to access to extension services – Yield improvements are the outcome of a package deal, where the package includes fertilizers and seeds and extension services • Future work; – Use more data rounds – Increase sophistication of the empirical analysis: Examine production frontiers, technical efficiency, changes in total factor productivity – “Unpack” the package nature of the drivers of yield improvements Page 12