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Aspirations Psychosocial Outcomes and Saving in Rural Ethiopia
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Aspirations Psychosocial Outcomes and Saving in Rural Ethiopia

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Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Seminar Series, March 18, 2012

Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Seminar Series, March 18, 2012

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  • 1. Apa n, pyhsclu o e ad sir ios s ooiaot ms n t c cs in in uaE io iaa g rr t p v lhTnu Bra , S f D r nKt O k , Ae ah agy e r ta e o, a r n d en c e in l yumSyu Tf seom a see1 Mr 21 8 a h 01 c
  • 2. Ap a n sir ios t D vl mn d cus ad r isou o ‘o p r nie’ ee p et is r n pa f s n pot its o o e x c u W y ot p o nt vs h d h o r o ‘inet e ’?  E io ias n fa m t p n ada l h tis Ap a n sir ios t  Adse rn mitn oah v smt g eir o a a bio t ciee o e in h  A a ad p d frt r c it n im n iml eoto e h ie f a  C mintn fr e ne ad e f o b a o pe r cs n bl s io fe ie R le cnet e t ocp ad s  Eoo ic Stfin cnm s a ic g : is  Pyhl ySl f ayl u o cn o s o g: e- f c, o s fot l c o f ic e c r  A t o o g: Apa n fue n rp l y sir iosa r h o t il s C m o e mn o m n l et e s  G a/ pa n a imot todt m e ucs ola ir ios r p r n t e r in sces ss t e a e  Eo tn hog t e r p ne occmt cs vlio t uh im in e os t ir s ne u r s u a
  • 3. Apa n ad oe y sir ios n p vr t t W a cpcy oa ir cnt nlein ek aait t s e a r st t p a a o l o n inet et o r o vs n w m s C pcyt a ir nt vn d t u d aait o s e o eel isibt p y r e bten ic ad o r e e rh n p o w  t p o hv f e r or so o neprne h o r ae e re uc f w xe c e w s e r ie ado sr tno ohr cn ibtg ol l e n bev io f t s ot u t o e l a e, r in w v o a ir io ( paua 20) fs a n A pdr 01 p t i,  t p o hv f e rsucs t a ct t h o r ae e r eor e w e o la o l e o m dictno t ir e fadpr p n. Pio o ifa io fh bl s n e et s r r e ie c io blfaot ail f p siv cags r t s e s b u inbit o oite hne a h ie y r e u pre a d e tt p ue  t p o hv llm ta n oa ct r or s h o r aeit oivt t l a e uc e t e io l e s e o t m dyhir e fad e etn o o ift bl s n pr p e ie c io
  • 4. M ta no r er oivt f e a h io r s c D fu t idn y fc o a ir ios if l o et eet fs a n ic t if f s p t  I iv ulr or s fca ir ios n ida e uc aets a n d ’s s e f p t  I iv ula ir ios fcr or s n ida s a n aete uc d ’s p t f s e  Eoeoshc t a ir iosm i- xgnu soko s a n: in p t d cmn rso l a scess rs ou et ie fo l ucs t ie a c o s end t r d m c ee r o a o l sl t n y ec dee iniv ul d idas  Po l wo wt a d cmn r hv h hr ep e h ah c ou et y ae ige a a ir ios n m r f wr-o k g eaior s a n ad oeo a l in bhv u p t r d o  Im r po l inavaewt ad cmn r f oe ep e il lg a h ou et y c a, a ir ios n f wr-o k g eaior c a s s a n ad o a l in bhv u inr s p t r d o ee mr oe
  • 5. Tet et1 r mn ( ) a Cut o 4 il e l e f va s sr lg I iv ul et et n idat a n d r m  W h vae it il in lg  T E T E T6 h ivn ice f d cmn r R A MN : h ge tkt o ou et y sr a  4 hrm i- ou et ie o l ascestrs sot ind cmn rs f cl css ie a o u o  PA EO: 6h ivn ice f a er tnl oie L C B h ge tkt o r e ioam v s r ca  Lcl l is n hw sa p yd rudeta oate io so uul le a n f ivl ev l a y o s s  C T OL6 h uvyd u ntivn ice ON R : h sr e bt o ge tkt e s Vle r t et il t a n a em g  I 2vae int c s r f , 1 hueo s r n il s h lt o 4 8 oshl a lg e ue d e ge tktt a ou et y ivn ice o d cmn r s a  I t ohr2 vae, 1 hueo sa ge nh te e il s 8 oshl r ivn lg d e tktt a oe ice o m v s
  • 6. Tet et2 r mn ( ) a Vle il 4 ag Vle il 3 ag 6 oie mv 6 oie mv 6 ou et y d cmn r a 6 ou et y d cmn r a 6 oh g nt in 6 oh g nt in + + Vle il 1 ag 1 d cmn r 8 ou et y a 1 mv 8 oie 6 oie mv 6 ou et y d cmn r a 6 oh g nt in Vle il 2 ag + 6 oie mv 1 mv 8 oieR D= I it E ne vd 6 ou et y d cmn r a 6 oh g nt inBU = Sr yd n L E uv e ad e init ved + L h= mv igt oie 1 d cmn r 8 ou et y aBA K Sr ydn L C = uv e, o e init ve D r= d cmn r ak ou et y a
  • 7. Smlg apin Vle r t et il t a n a em g  Vle g ue in c s ro 4 il e il s r pd t lt s f va s ag o o ue lg  T e vae r d m e: 2 ra et cn o hn il sa o isd t t n 2 ot l lg n em , r W h ec vae it ah il in lg  H ueo sad m sl t f t a et oshl r o l e c do r t n d n y ee rem , cn oad leo ot ln p cb r a  T ktf ha ad ed sos in ah ice o ed n ha’sp ue ec s r hueo oshl d  N r le et o e a mn pc 3 ons rud  Bsle r t a etSp D c 00 a in pe r t n ( et e 21) e - em -  Apa n r et md ty frra et sir iose sim eia lae t t n t t e t em  Flw p Mr a 21) oo - ( a My 01 l u -
  • 8. Bl c ad o p ne ane n cml c a ia Treatment Placebo Control Total Given ticket 705 729 722 2156 Interviewed baseline 696 725 704 2125 Went to screening 670 705 0 1375 Did second round 686 657 662 2005 All sections 659 657 662 1978 Non-compliance rate 6.52 9.88 8.31 8.26 Smlbl cd n edrit ayae n m sot ms a p ane o gne l r , g ad ot u o e e a , ec c
  • 9. Apa n esr sir io ma e t us20 0 E B vl o0,00 T ~ a e f u  4 imnios d es noe a et fhtrm n hr so caf v o  A naino e cs nul cm in a hoe et e n hc r a  Ast– huef nuecnu e go s eic s s s os, u it , osmro d, vh l e r r e  Scl a s we e po lin h vae s oias t – ht r ep t il a tu h e e l g k10 0 E B vl o 0,00 T ~ a e f uoe a et fhtrm n hr so caf v o ave n eis n dic o dcioshl hc r a a et e f a  Lvlfdctn f l scil eeo eua o o ethd io d 1 nul A na  “W aish l eo <> yu oll t ht t e lf e v o wu ik o d e cs a h0T EB ino e cm ah v? ciee”  S na isd t dr e a d
  • 10. Ap a n sir ios t Income Wealth Status Education Treatment effect 0.029 -0.118 0.072 0.054 0.704 0.052* 0.381 0.548 Placebo effect 0.087 -0.088 0.003 0.068 0.163 0.262 0.967 0.422 Treatment - placebo -0.059 -0.029 0.069 -0.014 0.341 0.826 0.111 0.194 Respondents 1911 1911 1911 1911 Villages 64 64 64 64 * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. p values are reported. Standard errors are robust and corrected for clustering. Controls for gender, literacy, age, baseline treatment status and time. N s p t a et fc adinat s h dc e o iml r t n eet n, f , a l t el in e em f s c ig in wah sir ios el a a n t p t Fr e ineta n n il e r t et ut r vs t o va t a n h ig io l em g
  • 11. Pyhscl esr ( ) l u o cn o s ooiama e 1: o s fot l c us c r  C msrm ot ’s16)scl a in t oy o e f R t r ( 96 oial r gh r o e en e  Et nlot l e fht u o e a nt e r ind y x racn o bl t ot ms r o dt m e b e r : ie a c e e pr nlfr e oaeot s fs  Ie acn o blfht u o e a cn gn uo atn n r lot l e t ot ms r ot et p n c s tn r : ie a c e in io  Ie aa oia d it m r ate u u o vl d ol n r ls ct wh oe c pr it fa e ga, tn s e iv s u s in r a n ek gatnm u dcio mk gsne f f mt sein, u o os eis n ain, es o o io o wle g ebin. l  Ma r is n dp tn feesn 18) es e a aatio o Lvno ( 91 u a  4 o tcl 1 it s p in s e 5 e a, m  C ac hne  “T a r t x n m l is ot ld y cidn lhne o g aet t yif cn oe b ac et/ ac e e e rl ac hpeins apn g .”  “Ofn hr is ocac o poetg y e oain r tf m t t e n hne frt in m pr nl t e sr e e c s es o bduk apn g a l hpeins c .”  P wr lt r o e uoh s f e  “M l is h f cn oe b ohr o e upo l yif ciey ot ld y t p wr lep .” e l rl e f e  “Po ll msl ae e llcac o poetg u pr nl ep ik y f v vr it hne frt in or e oa e e eh yt e c s in r twe t y oft it t s o m r p wr lep .” t e s hn h cnicwh h e f oe o e upo l es e l o f e  Ie a nrl tn  “W e Ie waI at ’s sa bcue wr d a f it hn gt ht wn it uul eas I ok hr o .” , ly e d r  “M l is e r ind y y w atn.” yif dt m e b m o n c s e e io
  • 12. Pyhscl esr ( ) C ue o p vr s ooiama e 2: ass foe y c us t  Pr p n o cue o p vr e et s fass foe y c io t  Fain ( 92 At u no P vr Sa eg ’s17) tibt f oe y cl r io r t e  4 o tcl p in s e a  “Im o gor d o sm r sn po l a gin t e yu o e e os ep a a e geo wy o r ep a p o.” iv f h p o po l r o r r e e  S ut a tc r r ul  “T e isibtn f n bten o rn rh h d t u o l d e e p o ad ic r io a w po lis nvn ep uee” e  “T e lk pot its u t t f ththy hya o p r nie de o h a t t c u e c a e cm f m o ra ils o er p o f ie” o m  Ftis a lic at  “T e hv bda / s y hy ae a fe et ” t d in  “T e lkuk hya l ” c c  I iv ul n ida d  “T e lkh ail t mng m ny r t r hya t bit o aae oe o oh c e y e ae” st ss  “T e d ntc e se t imrv t ir e” hy o o at l eko poe h l s iv y e iv
  • 13. Pyhscl esr s ooiama e c us LOCUS ON CONTROL CAUSES OF POVERTY Chance Internal Powerful others Fate Structural IndividualTreatment effect -0.036 -0.055 0.078 -0.151 0.094 0.106 0.674 0.565 0.373 0.055* 0.146 0.113Placebo effect -0.064 -0.045 -0.005 -0.045 0.08 0.119 0.411 0.593 0.941 0.549 0.222 0.079*Treatment - placebo 0.027 -0.01 0.083 -0.106 0.014 -0.013 0.528 0.683 0.597 0.905 0.296 0.435Respondents 1911 1911 3822 3822 3822 3822Villages 64 64 64 64 64 64* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. p values are reported.Standard errors are robust and corrected for clustering.Controls for gender, literacy, age, baseline treatment status and time.  D c a in rp r n fr t etru woar t t er s po ot o t a n g p h g e h ee io em o e a p vr hs a lic cue oe y a “fa t” ass t tis  N ainr s in rp r n fr t etru woar er c a po ot o t a n g p h g e ee io em o e t t oe y a “iniv ulcue h p vr hs d ida ass a t ”
  • 14. Sv g ains A on whr nrm n dp se m ut it a f ad eoit dw o d in ainson in h lt ot s gl s t a mn v a es h Mme h o ad ot u n t id ir e br ip fn cn ibt so d s r io (brloie s h h a aoinue uiasc t wic cn l sr ie s aa sl s fo e o l s c) gint so hms r et k o iv o Mme h o ad ot u n oiq u e br ip fn cn ibt t q b s r io (ains rusad o n rs ins s g g p) n vl t ya g v o ua v adon g usu b N O n l s r p rn y G a o
  • 15. Sv g ains Has savings Total savings Withdrawn from savings Deposited in savings Had baseline Had baseline Whole sample savings Whole sample savingsTreatment effect -0.001 57.68 35.015 118.328 30.93 22.271 0.959 0.677 0.017** 0.043** 0.033** 0.079**Placebo effect 0.017 -73.192 -15.881 -56.33 -34.773 -127.511 0.477 0.692 0.509 0.6 0.5 0.599Treatment - placebo -0.018 130.873 50.895 174.658 65.703 149.782 0.099 0.401 0.378 0.325 0.557 0.486Respondents 3822 3822 3822 887 3822 887Villages 64 64 64 59 64 59* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. p values are reported.Standard errors are robust and corrected for clustering.Controls for gender, literacy, age, baseline treatment status and time.  I r s in whr a ad dps in s insa ogt a et nee ca it a l n eoit t a g m n r t n dw o v em gu rp o  S a nt c a in ains ml e inr s s g l ee v  N eeto ko l g o V L rg m e, mme h o V L r o fc n nw de f S por ms e br ip f S o f s e a s id irc n ibtn oid irec m n d , ot u t d ah ot r io h
  • 16. D mn f c d e ado r it re A t l as c al n u o  N me o l n t e ina s m n s u br f asa n ltix ot o k s h  A on o ec l n m ut faho a  N eet o fc f s H p t tal n yoh icl as e o  “Smoerm m rfac int tn a e o o en f a ic inne s u cm t o o it io yu n oe d ol d o ay m ut f oe o ad fr t e yu n a on o m ny fe n yu s whu ca in in rso sr e hr .” o a it thr g t et re ic ca e k o g e v g  “H w uh olyu s f ? o mc wu o a o ” d k r  Ioe er n n ya  Ife er niv yas  It ya n e er n s  W awu yu s t m nyo? ht ol o ue h oe f d e r
  • 17. H p t tal n yoh icl as e o DESIRED HYPOTHETICAL LOANS In 1 year In 5 years In 10 years Treatment effect 1310.722 5058.554 3238.836 0.127 0.024** 0.147 Placebo effect 1173.248 1095.106 -1596.74 0.166 0.559 0.569 Treatment - placebo 137.474 3963.448 4835.576 0.137 0.949 0.083 Respondents 1966 1966 1966 Villages 63 63 63 * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. p values are reported. I r s in m utr t etru wu a f in n e e a on t a n g p ol s o ca em o d k r hp t tal n in ya yoh icl as 5 er e o s
  • 18. G ne adit ay fca ir ios edrn l r aets a n ec f p t CONTROL VARIABLES Male Literate AgeAspirations Income +  Mn n t l r e e ad h it a e et Wealth + +  H hrsir ios ige a a n p t Status + +  Lsblf cac ad es e in hne n ie Education + +Locus of Chance - - + fe atcontrol Powerful others + +  M r blf p wr l oe e in o ef ie u Internal - - ohr t s eCauses of Fate - - +  M r blf iniv ul oe e in d ida iepoverty Structural cn o ot l r Individual + +  H hr yohta ige hp t icl eSavings Has savings - + dmn f c d e ado r it re Total savings + Withdrawn  Le t po lhv it a ep ae re e DepositedHypothetical 1 year + + - h hrains ige s g vloan 5 years + + - 10 years + + -
  • 19. C nlio oc s n u Pe inrr us rim a e l l y st Mn n l r e ep hv h hr e adit a po l ae ige et e a ir ios n u ma r s a n o or es e p t u Sm eeto in r n n e c d o e fc f t v t dt t f s e e io ee  blfaoth cue o p vr e s b u t ass foe y ie e t  s ins n ue fain acut a g ad s o s g con v , v s  hp t tal n yoh icl as e o  bt o or esr o a ir ios u nt u ma e fs a n us p t Fr e ( oe t c r)aas ut rm r sut a nlis h r ul y Epnin in r t Ml i, Pkt v xad g t e – a w ais n ia es a a IR F I P
  • 20. C n ibtn ot u s r io R sa h s t c: Fny Tds eer a is ne aae aes c sa e D tc ain: Fny Tds , I aim a e a l n g aae aes b h H s n ae e r s Sr y aae et eaih ef e uv mngmn Bzb T sy, e : a T wdo A a e o rs bt e A m isa e up r Mh t euiaKt d int t spot al Mkr, a r iv : e e PudnC A s fC R f il tr rde, S E tf A Ea itos a, ca P ce sr yr in ad up r Fl oktuv t in g n spot e e a : ix Sh iein cm d g P ce sr y up r A de Z it , J t oktuv spot nr el u in e : w in s Sne r ica PyeN uen a ciwl adf , R hr an, ar Kr h a u d e a l a Avrcpb ad il gem f e aal n wl t o y e in a eu e tr nmr os a Ala ic at l r ipn pt s
  • 21.

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