Cereal Production and Technology Adoption in Ethiopia

Friday, June 25, 2010
Cereal Production and Technology Adoption in Ethiopia
BingxinYu
Alejandro Nin-Pratt
José Funes
SinafikehAsrat
June 2010

Background
Economic growth strategy (1991) defined the PADETES (Participatory Demonstration and Training Extension System ) to increase cereal yields through:
Integrated program of extension, seed, fertilizer and credit
Public sector dominant seed sector
Private sector disengaged from fertilizer market
Guaranteed credit reached some four million farmers
Limited success of public interventions in promoting price stability and improving grain markets
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Goals
Assess the extent of the adoption of the fertilizer-seed technology “package” promoted by PADETES since 1996,
Project future adoption prospects under present policy
Derive implications to increase the use of inputs and accelerate output and productivity growth in cereal production
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Outline
Data
Evidence on adoption
Trends of fertilizer and improved seed use
Spatial distribution of technology use
Impact of adoption: yields
Explaining adoption: The model
Empirical results
Discussion and implications
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Data
CSA Annual Sample Surveys 2003/04 – 2007/08
Nationally representative annual series
Data available at plot level
Detailed information on area, production and input use for all crops
Wereda level information, accounting for heterogeneity in spatial distribution of:
Natural resources
Infrastructure
market access.
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Evidence of technology adoption: total cereals
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Evidence of adoption: by crop beginning and end of period
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Contribution of traditional and modern technology to yield growth
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Efficiency and technical frontier movements explaining yield growth (annual growth rate %)
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Average level of efficiency achieved on production of maize, teff and wheat under different technologies
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Double Hurdle (DH) model (Cragg 1971)
Two stages
1. farmers decide whether or not to use fertilizer
Access to fertilizer/improved seed
2. decide the quantity to use
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Demand for fertilizer/improved seed

Double Hurdle (DH) model (Cragg 1971)
Separating households into 3 groups:
1. households applying modern technology
Y>0 if Y*>0 and A*>0
2. households wanting to adopt but reporting no positive application
Y=0 if Y*>0 but A*<=0
3. households choosing not to adopt
Y=0 if Y*<=0 regardless A*
more efficient and consistent ML estimates
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Factors affecting probability of adoption
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Factors affecting quantities of fertilizer and improved seed used (given adoption)
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Factors affecting quantities of fertilizer and improved seed used (given adoption)(con’d)
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Conclusions
The promoted technology combining the use of improved seed varieties and chemical fertilizers has not been adopted as such
With the exception of wheat, the use of fertilizer appears to have relatively little impact on yields
Low efficiency in the use of fertilizer
The share of cereals produced using the new technology is still low, with decreasing or even negative rates of adoption in recent years.
High fixed cost of “knowledge” to access technology is main factor affecting adoption
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Cereal Production and Technology Adoption in Ethiopia

by essp2 on Jul 05, 2010

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