0
Fantu Nisrane Bachewe  and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse  Ethiopia Strategy Support Program, ESSP-II International Food Policy...
Outline <ul><li>Motivation: Recent trends in output and yield, and sources of growth, </li></ul><ul><li>Trends in total fa...
Data and Methods <ul><li>Data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ethiopian Central Statistical Agency (CSA) -  Annual Agricultural Samp...
Recent Trends in Output and Yield: ERHS <ul><li>Spatial coverage: 15 Kebeles (villages), 1500 households </li></ul><ul><li...
Data and Method  - TFP and Efficiency Change in TFP Change in Output  less   Change in Input Use Change in Technical Effic...
Recent Trends in Output and Yield: CSA data Trend in total agricultural output, area, and yield, 2004/5-2008/9 Levels Grow...
Recent Trends - Sources of Growth : CSA data <ul><li>Both national and zone-level data indicate that about one-half of the...
Recent Trends - Sources of Growth: CSA Data  <ul><li>Growth in the application of modern inputs was slower :  </li></ul><u...
Recent Trends in Output and Yield: ERHS <ul><li>During 2004-2009 , </li></ul><ul><li>Household level real value of output ...
Recent Trends - Sources of Growth: ERHS Data <ul><li>Analyses that use household level ERHS data implied output growth dur...
Trends in total factor productivity  <ul><li>Trends in TFP during 2004-2009 in agriculture  </li></ul><ul><li>A growth acc...
Trends in total factor productivity and efficiency <ul><li>Trends in efficiency-relative to best performing zones/househol...
Trends in total factor productivity and efficiency - Summary <ul><ul><li>Output growth was mainly driven by growth in cult...
Challenges of Increasing TFP  <ul><ul><ul><li>Is there potential to improve efficiency?  </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><...
Agricultural Productivity in Ethiopia - Challenges for Future Growth
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Agricultural Productivity in Ethiopia - Challenges for Future Growth

2,758

Published on

Ethiopian Development Research Institute and International Food Policy Research Institute (EDRI/IFPRI) Seminar Series, November 3, 2011

Published in: Education, Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
2,758
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
64
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • As a result of expansion in area exceeding growth in output and growth in other factors, household level real value of output per hectare declined at 4.5 percent
  • A growth accounting model applied on sector level CSA data implied that TFP increased annually at 3.7 percent during the 2004/5-2008/9 period, By contrast, the same approach implied an average growth of 1.1 percent when contributions of improvements in infrastructure, electrification, and gains from increasing scales of production are accounted for, SPF equivalent in variables included with the baseline growth accounting model and using zone level CSA data implied average annual growth in TFP of 4.6 percent. SPF using household level ERHS data and equivalent to the extended growth accounting model in types of variables included implied average annual decline in TFP of 2.3 percent. Quantitatively similar results were obtained using ERHS panel data formed by grouping six rounds of the ERHS data across different years This specification accounts for the largest number of factors, including social infrastructure such as health facilities, effects of climatic, and agroecologic differences, and crop cultures, and accounts for damages suffered, among others.
  • Zone level CSA data implies nationwide relative level of efficiency averaged 0.72 during the 2004-2009 period and it grew at average annual rate of 1.24 percent Among Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and SNNP regions included in the analysis efficiency levels averaged 0.92, 0.9, 0.89, and 0.5 while it grew at respective rates of 0.24, 1.4, 1.25, and 1.9. Household level ERHS data implied that among households in the sample relative level of efficiency averaged 0.52 and grew at 1.17 percent during the same period, Average levels of efficiency in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and SNNP regions were 0.52, 0.53, 0.49, and 0.59 while respective annual growth rates in efficiency average 4.6, 1.5, 0.9, and 0.7
  • Transcript of "Agricultural Productivity in Ethiopia - Challenges for Future Growth"

    1. 1. Fantu Nisrane Bachewe and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse Ethiopia Strategy Support Program, ESSP-II International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Workshop on Increasing Agricultural Productivity and Enhancing Food Security in Africa November 1-3, 2011 Addis Ababa Agricultural Productivity in Ethiopia - Challenges for Future Growth ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
    2. 2. Outline <ul><li>Motivation: Recent trends in output and yield, and sources of growth, </li></ul><ul><li>Trends in total factor productivity and efficiency, </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges of increasing TFP and efficiency </li></ul>
    3. 3. Data and Methods <ul><li>Data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ethiopian Central Statistical Agency (CSA) - Annual Agricultural Sample Survey (1997/98-2008/09) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (ERHS) - Seven rounds of panel survey (1993/94-2008/09) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Methods </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Growth decomposition; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growth accounting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stochastic frontier analysis </li></ul></ul>
    4. 4. Recent Trends in Output and Yield: ERHS <ul><li>Spatial coverage: 15 Kebeles (villages), 1500 households </li></ul><ul><li>Temporal coverage: 1993/94-2008/9 (7 rounds the last three roughly one every 5 years) </li></ul>01/13/12
    5. 5. Data and Method - TFP and Efficiency Change in TFP Change in Output less Change in Input Use Change in Technical Efficiency Change in Allocative Efficiency Technological Progress Change in Other Factors (Scale Effects, Price Effects)
    6. 6. Recent Trends in Output and Yield: CSA data Trend in total agricultural output, area, and yield, 2004/5-2008/9 Levels Growth rates (%) Variable Crop 2004/5 2008/9 2004/05-2005/06 2007/08-2008/09 Average Output All crops 14,217 20,245 9.7 2.6 9.3 Grains 11,907 17,117 12.4 6.7 9.5 Area All crops 10,108 12,136 3.9 1.7 4.7 Grains 9,811 11,211 3.7 2.3 3.4 Yield All crops 14.07 16.68 5.5 0.9 4.4 Grains 12.14 15.27 8.4 4.3 5.9 Source : Authors’ computation using CSA data (CSA (2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009)).
    7. 7. Recent Trends - Sources of Growth : CSA data <ul><li>Both national and zone-level data indicate that about one-half of the increase in output resulted from expansion in cultivated area. </li></ul><ul><li>The remaining increase in total output must have resulted from: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased use of other inputs, and/or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased total factor productivity (TFP). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Most of the remaining growth resulted from increases in ‘traditional’ inputs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Growth in number of holders that averaged 3.6 percent, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growth in draught livestock, which constitute non-land capital , at average annual rate of 5.8 percent . </li></ul></ul>
    8. 8. Recent Trends - Sources of Growth: CSA Data <ul><li>Growth in the application of modern inputs was slower : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>On average 44 percent of cultivated area was fertilized and this share grew at average annual rate of 1 percent, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rate of chemical fertilizer application averaged 33 KG/ha and grew annually at a rate of 6.8 percent, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Application of improved seed averaged 1.7 KG/ha and grew at 9 %; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The area under improved seeds averaged 3.5 percent and it grew at 5.7 %, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>On average, about 19 and 1 percent of cultivated area was applied with pesticides and was irrigated while this share grew annually at 6 and 5.5 percent, respectively. </li></ul></ul>
    9. 9. Recent Trends in Output and Yield: ERHS <ul><li>During 2004-2009 , </li></ul><ul><li>Household level real value of output grew annually at 7.7 percent, </li></ul><ul><li>Cultivated area grew on an average rate of 11.7 percent,. </li></ul><ul><li>Use of labor and draught oxen increased annually at respective rates of 1.7 and 5.9 percent, </li></ul><ul><li>Per hectare application of fertilizer averaged 35 KG/ha and grew annually at 25 percent, </li></ul><ul><li>Household level real value of output per hectare has been growing until 2009 during which it declined. </li></ul>
    10. 10. Recent Trends - Sources of Growth: ERHS Data <ul><li>Analyses that use household level ERHS data implied output growth during the same period largely driven by: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Size and quality of cultivated land, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Number of draught oxen and ploughs used for cultivation, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in quality and quantity of labor use, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The amount of rain received in the region, </li></ul></ul>
    11. 11. Trends in total factor productivity <ul><li>Trends in TFP during 2004-2009 in agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>A growth accounting model applied on sector level CSA data implied annual growth in TFP of 3.7 percent during this period. </li></ul><ul><li>Stochastic production frontier (SPF) applied on zone level CSA data implied average annual growth in TFP of 4.6 percent. </li></ul><ul><li>SPF using household level ERHS data implied average annual decline in TFP of 2.6 percent, </li></ul>
    12. 12. Trends in total factor productivity and efficiency <ul><li>Trends in efficiency-relative to best performing zones/households </li></ul><ul><li>Zone level CSA data implied that during the 2004-2009 period </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Average nationwide relative level of efficiency of 0.72, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Annual growth in efficiency averaged 1.24 percent. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional differences considerable: Level (0.5-0.92), growth (0.24%-1.9%) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Household level ERHS data implied that during the same period </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Average household level relative efficiency was 0.52, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Efficiency levels grew at average annual rates of 1.17 percent, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional differences narrower: Level (0.49-0.59), growth (0.7%-4.6%) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Average levels of efficiency in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and SNNP regions </li></ul></ul>
    13. 13. Trends in total factor productivity and efficiency - Summary <ul><ul><li>Output growth was mainly driven by growth in cultivated area and traditional inputs such as labour and livestock; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rainfall matters; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Modern inputs have yet to contribute as much as expected to increases in output, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Both ERHS and CSA data implied positive contributions of increased advisory services by extension agents. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Future growth need to derive from increases in TFP. </li></ul>
    14. 14. Challenges of Increasing TFP <ul><ul><ul><li>Is there potential to improve efficiency? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Zonal analysis – limited room (0.72 but higher if the region with the lowest TE is excluded); </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>ERHS analysis – a lot of room (0.52); </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Caveat: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Data, </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Concept “… farm-level efficiency concept has been applied to zone-level data.” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Adoption - The returns question (VC ratios <2); </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Input subsidy - a sub-text </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Availability – the Seed question; </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    1. A particular slide catching your eye?

      Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

    ×