A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access             Helina Tilahun and Emily Schmidt  “Taking Stock...
Overview• Livestock production and markets vary substantially across space  in Ethiopia   – Topographic variations, market...
Livestock production in Ethiopia• Livestock production in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the  highland regions producing...
Cattle production            50,000Thousands            48,000            46,000            44,000                        ...
Cattle and Shoat Production                  (2000 – 2008)• Cattle and shoat production has increased over the  last decad...
Note: 2007 Woreda shares are estimated using the Agricultural Census 2001/2002
Note: 2007 Woreda shares are estimated using the Agricultural Census 2001/2002
Herd composition: Ethiopia• Data comparing herd composition suggest that the shoat  population is increasing compared to c...
Ethiopia: Shoat to Cattle Ratio (2000 – 2008)Region                  2001/02          2005/06           2006/07          2...
Ratio of Shoat to Cattle in East African         Countries 1990-2009      9      8      7      6      5                   ...
Market Access and Livestock Production• Transportation infrastructure and access to livestock markets  has improved consid...
Percent of Cattle Production                within 5 hours of a livestock market100                                       ...
Percent of Shoat Production                within 5 hours of a livestock market100                                       8...
Livestock production and grazing pressure• Pressure on grazing land is increasing due to greater human  population density...
East Africa: Tropical livestock unit               per sq. km of land (thousands)                                         ...
Conclusions• Livestock production in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the  highland regions producing the largest share• O...
Conclusions (2)• Data comparing herd composition suggest that  the shoat population is increasing compared to  cattle prod...
Conclusions (3)• Cattle production is higher within 5 hours of a major  livestock market.   – In 2007/08, more than 75 per...
Conclusions (4)• Pressure on grazing land is also increasing due  greater population density, larger herd sizes and  relat...
A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access
A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access
A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access
A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access
A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access
A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access
A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access
A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access
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A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access

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Transcript of "A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access"

  1. 1. A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access Helina Tilahun and Emily Schmidt “Taking Stock of the Economics of the Livestock Sector in Ethiopia” November 4, 2011
  2. 2. Overview• Livestock production and markets vary substantially across space in Ethiopia – Topographic variations, market access, population dynamics• This study links smallholder livestock production data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data – Agricultural Census (2001/02) – Annual CSA agricultural sample survey – GIS data: landcover, city population and road networks• Pairing these data, focusing on cattle and shoat production, we assess: – Livestock production, growth and density over time – Changes in livestock production and market access (2000-2008) – Grazing land pressure from (2000-2008)
  3. 3. Livestock production in Ethiopia• Livestock production in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the highland regions producing the largest share of cattle and shoat.• Between 2005 and 2008, livestock production (in terms of cattle, sheep, and goat) in Ethiopia grew at 22 percent (AgSS, CSA)• Overall, Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions produced 87 percent of cattle in 2007/08, with each region contributing 44, 24, and 20 percent respectively to total cattle production.• This trend is similar for previous years of livestock production, whereby Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions combined produced 81 and 80 percent of total livestock in 2005/06 and 2006/07
  4. 4. Cattle production 50,000Thousands 48,000 46,000 44,000 CSA 42,000 FAO 40,000 38,000 36,000 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Shoat production 60,000Thousands 50,000 40,000 CSA 30,000 FAO 20,000 10,000 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
  5. 5. Cattle and Shoat Production (2000 – 2008)• Cattle and shoat production has increased over the last decade• Increase in cattle production seems to be spatially uniform – Cattle production in Afar is becoming more concentrated in the western area of the region• Increase in shoat production seems to be spreading significantly in the highlands as well as increasing in less accessible areas – More shoat are being produced in southern areas of Oromia and SNNPR, as well as woredas near Dire Dawa and Harer
  6. 6. Note: 2007 Woreda shares are estimated using the Agricultural Census 2001/2002
  7. 7. Note: 2007 Woreda shares are estimated using the Agricultural Census 2001/2002
  8. 8. Herd composition: Ethiopia• Data comparing herd composition suggest that the shoat population is increasing compared to cattle production in all regions.• In 2000/2001 a majority of regions produced more cattle than shoats with the exception of eastern regions of Afar, Somali, and Dire Dawa• By 2007/08, shoat production dominated in Tigray and Amhara, while in Oromiya region shoat to cattle ratio grew from 0.74 in 2005/06 to 0.80 in 2007/08.
  9. 9. Ethiopia: Shoat to Cattle Ratio (2000 – 2008)Region 2001/02 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08Tigray 0.92 1.22 1.27 1.41Afar 2.88 3.11 3.05 3.19Amhara 0.87 1.23 1.28 1.27Oromiya 0.49 0.74 0.76 0.80Somali 2.27 2.41 2.90 4.48BenishangulGumuz 0.84 1.09 1.33 1.26SNNP 0.66 0.68 0.78 0.69Gambella 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.48Harari 0.73 1.00 1.03 1.13Addis Ababa 0.46 0.58 0.49 0.46Dire Dawa 2.31 4.64 4.77 4.30Source: Authors’ calculations; CSA: Agricultural Census (2000) and AgriculturalSample Survey (2005-2008)
  10. 10. Ratio of Shoat to Cattle in East African Countries 1990-2009 9 8 7 6 5 Ethiopia 4 Kenya 3 Somalia 2 1 0 1990 2000 2005 2009 Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
  11. 11. Market Access and Livestock Production• Transportation infrastructure and access to livestock markets has improved considerably between 2000 and 2008.• Data suggest that cattle production is higher within 5 hours of a major livestock market.• Shoat production is also closer to livestock markets, but not as dependent to accessibility as cattle production.• In 2000/01, although many transportation linkages were not fully developed, 70 percent of cattle production in Tigray was within 5 hours travel time to a livestock market, and more than half of cattle production occurred within this travel time in Amhara, Oromiya, and SNNPR
  12. 12. Percent of Cattle Production within 5 hours of a livestock market100 81 7880 77 73 70 64 63 5760 200140 2007 28 2020 13 16 10 16 -
  13. 13. Percent of Shoat Production within 5 hours of a livestock market100 8380 76 66 65 66 6260 44 4340 200120 15 2007 10 10 7 8 4 -
  14. 14. Livestock production and grazing pressure• Pressure on grazing land is increasing due to greater human population density, larger herd sizes and relatively fixed grazing land resources. (Benin et al., 2002; Degefe and Nega 2000)• A comprehensive study of landcover has not been completed since the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project (WBISPP) in 2000 – FAO in collaboration with the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia (CSA) is currently analyzing satellite data on landcover change• In order to provide an approximate measure of livestock density per square kilometer of grazing land, we have paired the landcover data produced by the WBISPP in 2000 with the estimated woreda livestock production figures from 2000 through 2007
  15. 15. East Africa: Tropical livestock unit per sq. km of land (thousands) Total TLU perCountry Cattle Shoat TLU km2 km2Ethiopia 41,699 41,291 33,318 1,100 30Djibouti 289 1,223 325 22 15Eritrea 1,784 6,309 1,880 118 16Kenya 10,183 20,743 9,202 546 17Somalia 5,452 45,026 8,319 633 13Uganda 11,518 8245 8,887 200 44Source: Author’s calculations and Cecchi et al. (2010)
  16. 16. Conclusions• Livestock production in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the highland regions producing the largest share• Overall, Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions produced 87 percent of cattle in 2007/08• Shoat production is also highest in Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions, although more drought prone regions such as Afar, Tigray and Somali rely more heavily on shoat production – Between 2004/05 and 2007/08 both sheep and goat production doubled in Somali region• Data suggest that a large majority of growth is occuring in the highland regions, within 5 hours of a livestock market• Production seems to follow improved road infrastructure: • Southern Oromia , West SNNPR, West Afar
  17. 17. Conclusions (2)• Data comparing herd composition suggest that the shoat population is increasing compared to cattle production• Compared to other countries in eastern Africa, data suggest a similar trend, although the difference in magnitudes of such ratios in Somalia (4.82), Kenya (1.90) and Ethiopia (0.94) are clear
  18. 18. Conclusions (3)• Cattle production is higher within 5 hours of a major livestock market. – In 2007/08, more than 75 percent of cattle production in the four major highland regions occurred within 5 hours travel time of a market• Shoat production seems less dependent on accessibility yet a majority of production (more than 66 percent) in Oromiya, Amhara, Tigray, and SNNPR occurs within 5 hours travel time to a market• This trend is also seen in earlier years where transportation infrastructure was less expanded. – In 2000/01, although many transportation linkages were not fully developed, 70 percent of cattle production in Tigray was within 5 hours travel time to a livestock market, and more than half of cattle production occurred within 5 hours in Amhara, Oromiya, and SNNPR
  19. 19. Conclusions (4)• Pressure on grazing land is also increasing due greater population density, larger herd sizes and relatively fixed grazing land resources• Ethiopia has the largest land area, and the second highest livestock density in comparison to countries in East Africa (in terms of cattle and shoat)• Analysis suggests that further research on landcover change and livestock growth in the highlands is necessary in order to understand pasture land / environmental viability in coming years

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