A spatial assessment of livestock population and market access
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A spatial assessment of livestock population and market access

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Ethiopian Development Research Institute and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI/EDRI), Tenth International Conference on Ethiopian Economy, July 19-21, 2012. EEA Conference Hall

Ethiopian Development Research Institute and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI/EDRI), Tenth International Conference on Ethiopian Economy, July 19-21, 2012. EEA Conference Hall

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A spatial assessment of livestock population and market access A spatial assessment of livestock population and market access Presentation Transcript

  • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTEA Spatial Assessment of LivestockPopulation and Market Access Helina Tilahun Emily Schmidt IFPRI ESSP-II Ethiopian Economic Association Conference July 19-21, 2012 Addis Ababa 1
  • Overview• What are the current trends in cattle, sheep and goat population? – Where are most of the livestock population located?• Herd composition• Travel time• Pressure on grazing land?• Links smallholder livestock population data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data. 2
  • Current Trends• Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the highland regions producing the largest share of cattle, sheep and goats.• Livestock population (cattle, sheep, and goat) increased 22 percentage points between 2005 and 2008. – Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions produced 87 percent of cattle in 2007/08. 3
  • Cattle Population 60 50 40Millions CSA 30 FAO 20 10 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Sheep and Goat Population 60 50 40Millions CSA 30 FAO 20 Source: Author’s calculations; 10 CSA: Agricultural Sample 0 Survey (2005–2008) and FAO (2005–2008) 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 4
  • Herd Composition: Ethiopia• Sheep and goat population is increasing compared to cattle population in all regions.• In 2000/2001 a majority of regions produced more cattle than sheep and goat.• By 2007/08, sheep and goat population dominated in Tigray, Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz, Harari. 7
  • Ethiopia: Sheep and Goat to Cattle Ratio (2000 – 2008)Region 2001/02* 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08Tigray 0.92 1.22 1.27 1.41Afar 2.88 3.11 3.05 3.19Amhara 0.87 1.23 1.28 1.27Oromiya 0.49 0.74 0.76 0.80Somali 2.27 2.41 2.90 4.48Benishangul Gumuz 0.84 1.09 1.33 1.26SNNP 0.66 0.68 0.78 0.69Gambella 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.48Harari 0.73 1.00 1.03 1.13Addis Ababa 0.46 0.58 0.49 0.46Dire Dawa 2.31 4.64 4.77 4.30Source: Authors’ calculations; CSA: Agricultural Census (2001) and Agricultural Sample Survey (2005-2008) 8
  • Ratio of Sheep and Goat to Cattle (1990 – 2009) 100 90 80 70 Million head of livestock Sheep 60 Cattle Shoats and goats 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ethiopia 2000 Ethiopia 2005 Ethiopia 2009 Kenya 2000 Kenya 2005 Kenya 2009Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 9
  • Market Access and Livestock Population• Transportation infrastructure and access to livestock markets has improved considerably between 2000 and 2008. – Better road infrastructure enables the highland areas to prevail as primary supplier of livestock for the domestic markets in Ethiopia (FEWS NET, 2007). – Although the cost of trucking livestock is higher compared to trekking, traders and producers prefer trucking fattened animals in order to avoid weight loss (Gebremedhin et al. 2007).• Data suggest that cattle population is higher within 5 hours of a major livestock market.• In 2001/02, 57 percent of cattle population in Amhara region were located within 5 hours of market, in 2007/08 this figure reached 73 percent; Oromia from 64 to 81, SNNP from 60 to 78.• Sheep and goat population within 5 hours travel time to a market increased. – But not as dependent to accessibility as cattle population. 10
  • Percent of Cattle Population within 5 hours of a Livestock Market100 81 7880 77 73 70 64 63 5760 2001 200740 28 2020 13 16 10 16 - 13
  • Percent of Sheep and Goat Population within 5 hours of a Livestock Market100 8380 76 62 66 65 6660 44 4340 200120 15 2007 10 10 7 8 4 -
  • Livestock Population and Grazing Pressure• Pressure on grazing land is increasing: – greater human population density, – larger herd sizes, and – relatively fixed grazing land resources. (Benin et al., 2002; Degefe and Nega 2000).• To approximate measure of livestock density per square kilometer of grazing land, we have paired the landcover data produced by the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project (WBISPP, 2000) with the estimated woreda livestock population figures from 2001/02 through 2007/08. 17
  • East Africa: Tropical Livestock Unit per sq. km of Land (thousands) Sheep and Total TLU perCountry Cattle Goat TLU km2 km2Ethiopia 41,699 41,291 33,318 1,100 30Djibouti 289 1,223 325 22 15Eritrea 1,784 6,309 1,880 118 16Kenya 10,183 20,743 9,202 546 17Somalia 5,452 45,026 8,319 633 13Uganda 11,518 8245 8,887 200 44Source: Author’s calculations and Cecchi et al. (2010) 20
  • Conclusions• Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the highland regions producing the largest share.• Data comparing herd composition suggest that the sheep and goat population is increasing compared to cattle population.• Data suggest that a large majority of growth is occurring in the highland regions, within 5 hours of a livestock market.• In 2007/08, more than 75 percent of cattle population in the four major highland regions occurred within 5 hours travel time of a market• Sheep and goat population seems less dependent on accessibility • Afar, Benishangul Gumuz 21
  • Conclusions (2)• Pressure on grazing land is also increasing• Further research on landcover change and livestock growth in the highlands is necessary in order to understand pasture land / environmental viability in coming years.