How to calculate pot odds with holdem genius


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How to calculate pot odds with holdem genius

  1. 1. “How To Calculate Pot Odds with Holdem Genius”You DONT need to be a "math genius" to understand pokerodds...Not at all.In fact, you can be TERRIBLE at math (like me) and still be ableto use "odds" to your advantage at the no-limit Holdemtables.There are TWO main things you need to learn right away:1. The concept of OUTS2. The concept of POT SIZEThese are easy. Lets start with the first."Outs" refers to the number of cards in the deck that willcomplete (or "make") your hand.For instance... if you have Ace-King and the board reads Q-J-4,you need a ten to make your straight.Since there are four tens in the deck, you have FOUR OUTS.Or... lets say youre holding Q-J and the boardreads K-10-5.That means you have an open-ended straight draw-- eitherthe Ace or the nine will complete your straight.Since there are four nines and four Aces in the deck, youhave EIGHT OUTS.Lets do one more. Lets say youve got 8-7 of clubs and theboard reads 2c-Ad-Kc-3s. That means there are two clubs onthe board and two in your hand. If one more club hits onthe river, youll have a flush.There are a total of thirteen clubs in the deck (thirteen ofeach suit times four suits equals fifty-two cards).
  2. 2. But that DOESNT mean you have thirteen outs, becauseyoure already using four of the clubs.Instead, you have NINE OUTS (thirteen minus four). If any ofthose nine cards hits on the river, youll have a flush.OK... so thats how you calculate OUTS. Well do some morein-depth examples in a minute, but first lets talk about POTSIZE.Pot size is how much money is in the pot. Pretty simple,right?There are three main parts to pot size:1. How much money is already in the middle2. How much is bet in the current round of betting3. How much WILL be bet in the current roundLet me explain.Lets say four players call the big blind of $4 in a game. Thatmeans theres $16 in the middle.The flop comes out. Youre on the button, which meansyoure LAST to act. Player 1 bets $10 into the pot. Player 2calls, and Player 3 folds. Now its your turn. Whats thecurrent pot size?The answer is $36. Theres the $16 that was in the middle first,then $20 more from Players 1 and 2.The $16 is the first part, the $20 is the second part, and thereis no third part since you were last to act.Lets take another look. Lets say you were SECOND TO ACT,instead of on the button.Four players call the big blind of $4, which means theres $16in the pot. Player 1 bets $10, and now you must make adecision. Whats the pot size?Well, its $16 + $10 + UNKNOWN.
  3. 3. Why "unknown"?The reason is you DONT KNOW if the two players BEHINDyou are going to call, raise, or fold. So you really dontKNOW the exact pot size.This is a fundamental reason why math doesnt solve allyour problems in poker. You must use your INSTINCTS to"guess" and "infer".In this case, you would try to guess whether or not theother two players would call or fold (or raise) and makeyour decision then. This is also another reason whyPOSITIONING in a hand is so important.One more thing about pot size before we move on...A lot of players dont know whether to count THEIR OWNMONEY in the actual pot size.The answer is you count your own money thats ALREADYTHERE from before. In the example, your big blind of $4 isalready in the pot... so you DO use it to calculate the potsize.Once your money is in the middle, it isnt yours any more.Period.But you would NOT include your $10 in the pot size, becauseyou havent put it in yet. Youre THINKING about putting itin.Make sense?Lets say you called the $10 bet from Player 1 and the otherplayers all folded. The turn card comes and Player 1 bets $20.Whats the pot size?Well, its $16 from pre-flop, $20 after the flop, and now $20after the turn.You DO count your $10 after the flop because now it ISalready in the middle.
  4. 4. OK... so what does OUTS and POT SIZE have to do with ODDS?The answer is EVERYTHING.Now that you know these two basics, youre ready to startcalculating "complicated" poker odds.To calculate odds, you need four pieces of information:1. Number of outs2. Number of "unknown" cards in the deck3. Pot size4. Current bet amountWe talked about the outs and pot size. The other two arevery straightforward.The number of "unknown" cards in the deck simply meanshow many cards you DONT KNOW. Before the flop, there are50 cards you dont know. You only know the two in yourhand.After the flop, there are 47 cards you dont know. You knowthe two in your hand and the three on the board and thatsit.After the turn there are 46 cards you dont know.Like I said, this is simple stuff.And the CURRENT BET AMOUNT is just... well, the current betamount. Its how much you must put in the pot to "call".OK, lets review.Lets say you get dealt J-10 offsuit. You call the big blind of $6and so does one other player. The small blind folds. Theplayer in the big blind checks. That means the POT SIZE is $21($6 + $6 + $6 + $3).The flop comes out Q-2-9. Youve got an open-ended straightdraw. Either a King or an eight will make your straight.
  5. 5. Since there are four Kings and four eights in the deck,youve got EIGHT OUTS.There are 47 unknown CARDS in the deck (52 cards minus thefive that you see).Youre second to act. The first player bets $12. That means $12is the CURRENT BET AMOUNT.The POT SIZE is $21 + $12 + UNKNOWN. The unknown is whatthe player after you does...So there you have it... those are the four pieces ofinformation you need. The only thing you dont know forSURE is the pot size in this example.Sometimes youll know the pot size exactly (like when youhave good positioning). Other times youll just have toestimate.OK, lets do some odds.THE WAY TO CALCULATE ODDS IS TO COMPARE THE ODDS OFMAKING YOUR HAND TO THE ODDS OF THE POT.Heres the exact "formula":(Unknown Cards - Outs) : OutsVERSUSPot Size : Current Bet AmountIf the first comparison is smaller than the second one,thats good. It means that "pot odds justify a call" (or raise).For instance, if you have 12 outs and there are 47 unknowncards, that means you have ABOUT a 25% chance of "making"your hand.The odds against you are 35:12, or about 3:1.Remember... when you see two numbers like X:X, the firstnumber is the chance of one thing happening against the
  6. 6. chance of the second thing happening. Youll miss yourhand three times and make it once. Thats 1/4 or 25% or 3:1.Now lets say the pot size is $50 and the current bet amountis $10. That means the odds would be $50:$10, or 5:1.Its easiest to look at in the X:X format and not usepercentages.OK, so heres what youve got for this example:Outs = 12Unknown Cards = 47Current Bet Amount = 10Pot Size = 50There are 35 cards that WONT HELP YOU (47 - 12).So the odds are 35:12 for the cards.And for the pot its 50:10. You dont add your $10to the firstnumber. Just use the current pot size.35:12 is about 3:1. 50:10 equals 5:1.The entire point of calculating odds is to make a gooddecision. To make a decision of whether or not to call a $10bet here, you would compare the 3:1 versus 5:1.The odds here are IN YOUR FAVOR.If this scenario played out four times, heres how it wouldlook STATISTICALLY:- You lose $10.- You lose $10.- You win $50.- You lose $10.You lose three times and win once (3:1). When you add yourlosses it equals $30 but your wins are $50, giving you a $20profit.
  7. 7. If the scenario happened eight times youd win twice andlose six times. That means youd lose $60 and win $100... for a$40 profit.For real life poker situations, the key is to calculatewhether or not you can "justify" staying in the hand.Lets say you have A-8 and the flop comes out:K-10-4Someone bets $10 and the pot size is $20. What should you do?Well, you dont have anything but an Ace high. If the Acecomes on the turn, youd have top pair. So lets ASSUME thatyour top pair would be the winning hand.That means there are three cards in the deck that can helpyou (the other three Aces). And there are exactly 47 unknowncards in the deck.So we have our numbers:Outs = 3Unknown Cards = 47Current Bet Amount = 10Pot Size = 20Using our formula...(47 - 3) : 3VERSUS...20 : 10So the numbers come out 44:3 (about 15:1) versus 2:1. Shouldyou call?Of course not.Youre only getting 2:1 for your money but your chances ofwinning the hand are very slim.
  8. 8. If the hand played out 16 times you would win ONCE. Soyoud lose $150 (15 X $10) and win $20, for a total loss of $130.Youre always striving for good odds on your money andgood odds on your hand.Good odds on your hand means the X:X number is as SMALL ASPOSSIBLE... because you want lots of outs. You dont wantthere to be only one or two cards in the deck that can helpyou. You want fractions like 47:12, 46:10, 46:8, and so on.Good odds on your money means the X:X number is BIG. Youwant 10:1, 5:1, 12:1, and so on.OK, Im going to give one more example. See if youre smartenough to figure this out on your own (you may need to usea scratch piece of paper)...Youre second to act pre-flop and look down to see Kc-Jc.You limp-in by calling the $4 big blind.Three other players call. The small blind (who put in $2)folds.The player in the big blind decides to RAISE the pot to $8. Youcall. Two of the other three players call... but one folds.So now there are four players total in the hand... the guy inthe big blind, you, and the two other callers. (Still with mehere?)The flop comes out:Ac-4s-8cWhat a great flop for you. Youve got the nut flush draw.The player in the big blind is first to act. He checks. Youcheck also (which I would NOT recommend doing here, bythe way).The next player bets $16. The next one calls. The guy whomade the original pre-flop raise folds.
  9. 9. So now the action is on to you.What is the...Number of outs? Number of unknown cards? Current betamount? Pot size?AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...Should you call?See if you can figure it out before I give you the answer.............OK, so the answer is this:Yes, you should call.The pot size is $70. The current bet amount is $16. The numberof outs is 9. And the number of unknown cards is 47.The pot size was the hardest thing to figure out. Remember...the small blind folded his $2. Another player folded their $4.So there was $6 in the middle, plus $32 with the four callers.So $38 before the flop.Then there were two players in for $16 after the flop, whichequals $32. $38 + $32 = $70. Luckily, there werent any otherplayers left to act after you in this exact round of betting.The number of outs is simple. Thirteen clubs in the deckminus the four you already see equals nine. And the numberof unknown cards is 52 minus the five you see... which equals47.Plugging those numbers into our handy "formula" gives us:
  10. 10. (47-9):9 Versus 70:16Thats equal to 38:9 versus 70:16Now you might be wondering, "How the hell am I supposedto know what 70 divided by 16 is or 38 divided by 9? Its notlike Ill have a calculator handy at the table!"True.But you dont have to know the EXACT numbers. All you needto know is if the second one is bigger than the first. Andthats pretty easy.When I do it, heres what goes on in my head:"38 over 9 is about the same as 36 over 9, which equals 4. Thatmeans 38 over 9 is 4 and 2/9ths.70 over 16 is closest to 64 over 16, which also equals 4. Thatmeans 70 over 16 is 4 and 6/16ths.Now I just have to compare 2/9 to 6/16. 2/9 is like 2/10, whichequals .2. 6/16 is kind of like 6/18, which is .33. So the secondone is bigger."And that means the call IS justified.Now let me clarify something...In this example the two numbers are VERY close (4.22 versus4.375). Usually they WONT be that close. Usually theyll besomething like 3.3 versus 8.2 or 2.5 versus 4.1.That means in MOST cases you wont have to do all thatfraction stuff. OR, even if you DO have those fractions, youwont need to calculate it. Youll probably just consider it"about even" and make your decision based on other factors.All right... so thats basically how you calculate pot odds. Ofcourse, theres more.
  11. 11. You also want to know IMPLIED ODDS. Implied odds arent asmath-related. Implied odds basically pertain to hands whereyou can "bust" or "surprise" your opponents.In the last example, you were on the nut flush draw, becauseyou had the King of clubs and the Ace of clubs was on theboard.If your opponent was ALSO on the flush draw and he hadthe QUEEN of clubs, this would be very good for you...Because if another club hit on the turn, you and youropponent would both have flushes. But yours would behigher.In this case, your opponent would likely go "all-in" and youwould win a TON of chips.So even though the "odds" on your money are 4.375:1, theyreactually higher because of the "implied odds" of your NUTflush draw.Besides implied odds, youll also have to think about the"unknown" pot size, as we discussed. Many times you justwont KNOW the exact pot size, and will be forced to guess.Also... you must be careful to consider what yourOPPONENTS are holding...Lets say youre holding As-5h and the board reads: 8h-Qh-2hYou have the flush draw. And the odds of "making" it aregood. But that doesnt mean you want to calculate the nineother hearts in the deck as your "outs".Why?Because all your opponents need to BEAT you is a hearthigher than a FIVE. And someone most likely has it.The point is, when you calculate OUTS, you want tocalculate outs based on making the WINNING HAND.
  12. 12. And obviously theres no way to know for sure what thewinning hand will be... unless youve got the nuts.So as you can see... there are a LOT of different factors totake into consideration.Calculating pot odds is a useful technique for the rightsituations. Over the long term, it can become very handyand will help you make sound, logical decisions at the pokertable.Of course, pot odds is only one small aspect of "poker math".There are dozens of calculations youll want to make at thetable to quickly, consistently, and easily dominate onlinepoker.And the best way to achieve this is with an advanced oddscalculator. "Holdem Genius" is the worlds most advancedodds calculator... and its available FREE for a limited time.Just click here to learn more:CLICK HERE