Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
The perceived impact of climate change on smallholder dairy production in northern Malawi.
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

The perceived impact of climate change on smallholder dairy production in northern Malawi.

1,338
views

Published on

Presentation by Victor Kasulo at the 5th All Africa conference on animal production, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 25-28 October 2010.

Presentation by Victor Kasulo at the 5th All Africa conference on animal production, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 25-28 October 2010.

Published in: Technology

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,338
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
26
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. THE PERCEIVED IMPACT OF CLIMATETHE PERCEIVED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SMALLHOLDER DAIRYCHANGE ON SMALLHOLDER DAIRY PRODUCTION IN NORTHERN MALAWIPRODUCTION IN NORTHERN MALAWI Victor Kasulo Faculty of Environmental Sciences Mzuzu University Malawi
  • 2. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Outline  Introduction  Contribution of dairy farming to climate change  Vulnerability of dairy farming to climate change  Objectives  Materials and Methods  Data collection  Data type  Data analysis  Results and Discussion  Perceptions of respondents on change in rainfall pattern over time Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming  Conclusion  Acknowledgement
  • 3. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Introduction  Contribution of dairy farming to climate change  The livestock sector contributes 18% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions  Global dairy production accounts for 4 percent of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions
  • 4. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Introduction  Vulnerability of dairy farming to climate change  Warmer and drier conditions increase the likelihood of heat stress in cattle  Changes in rainfall patterns affects pasture growth  Droughts lead to water shortage  Climate change affects disease occurrence  Climate change increases the risk for geographically restricted rare breed populations
  • 5. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Introduction  Objective Aanalyze the perceived impact of changes in rainfall patterns on water availability, disease occurrences, pasture production, and in turn on milk production by smallholders farmers in Northern Malawi.
  • 6. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. 193,834 cattle 3,782 dairy cattle 700 dairy farmers
  • 7. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Materials and Methods  Data Collection  Baseline Survey  Covered Mzuzu Agricultural Development Division  Conducted in the three districts of Mzimba Rumphi, and Nkhata-Bay  Involved 13 Extension Planning Areas  Targeted 40% of dairy farmers
  • 8. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Materials and Methods  Data Type  Perceptions on change in rainfall pattern  Impact of changes in rainfall pattern over: Pasture production, Disease occurrence, Parasite occurrence, Water availability and Milk production.
  • 9. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Materials and Methods  Data Analysis  Descriptive statistics such as percentages and frequencies (SPSS)  Multi-nominal (logistic) regression model  Categorical dependent variable = Milk Production  Categorical independent variables: Water availability, Disease occurrences, and Pasture production
  • 10. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Results and Discussion 40 32 22 6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Increased Decreased Constant No idea Rainfall pattern Percentageofrespondents Perceptions of respondents on change in rainfall pattern over time
  • 11. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming Rainfall pattern Respondents (%) Effect on dairy farming Increased Decreased Constant No idea Increased Pasture production 73.7 9.6 14.0 2.6 Disease occurrence 37.7 22.8 26.3 13.2 Parasite occurrence 35.1 21.9 30.7 12.3 Water availability 70.2 5.3 21.9 2.6 Milk production 30.7 19.3 12.3 37.7 Decreased Pasture production 13.3 65.6 20.0 1.1 Disease occurrence 23.3 36.7 26.7 13.3 Parasite occurrence 20.0 43.3 30.0 6.7 Water availability 10.0 35.6 54.4 0.0 Milk production 16.7 34.4 18.9 30.0 Constant Pasture production 42.9 12.7 42.9 1.6 Disease occurrence 23.8 34.9 27 14.3 Parasite occurrence 23.8 38.1 25.4 12.7 Water availability 34.9 7.9 49.2 7.9 Milk production 22.2 27.0 9.5 41.3
  • 12. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming Change in Milk Production Variable B Std. Error Wald Sig. Exp (B) 95% Confidence Interval for Exp (B) Lower Bound Upper Bound Decrease Intercept -0.821 0.390 4.425 0.035 Water = 0 1.657 0.709 5.465 0.019 5.244 1.307 21.043 Water =1 1.842 0.622 8.768 0.003 6.309 1.864 21.351 Disease =0 -0.676 0.531 1.620 0.203 0.508 0.179 1.441 Disease = 1 -0.420 0.603 0.485 0.486 0.657 0.201 2.144 Pasture = 0 1.427 0.617 5.352 0.021 4.167 1.244 13.964 Pasture = 1 0.246 0.611 0.162 0.687 1.279 0.386 4.233
  • 13. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming (cont.) Change in Milk Production Variable B Std. Error Wald Sig. Exp (B) 95% Confidence Interval for Exp (B) Lower Bound Upper Bound Constant Intercept -1.974 0.578 11.670 0.001 Water = 0 -0.326 1.048 0.097 0.756 0.722 0.093 5.630 Water = 1 2.095 0.674 9.660 0.002 8.123 2.168 30.432 Disease = 0 0.387 0.688 0.316 0.574 1.472 0.383 5.666 Disease = 1 1.437 0.710 4.092 0.043 4.207 1.046 16.926 Pasture = 0 1.063 0.724 2.159 0.142 2.896 0.701 11.958 Pasture = 1 -0.654 0.709 0.850 0.357 0.520 0.130 2.088
  • 14. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Conclusion  Farmers in the study area do not consider climate change as having any significant influence on dairy farming.  Climate change has negative effects o on livestock production in general and dairy production in particular.  Need further studies in the vulnerability and adaptation of smallholder dairy farmers to climate change in the area.  Need for development and utilisation of improved breeds and alternative sources of feed.
  • 15. The 5The 5t ht h A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es October 25-28, 2010. Acknowledgement We thank the Department for International Development (DFID) through the Development Partnership for Higher Education for funding this research.

×