From Glaciers to Global Climate Change: Minnesota’s Past, Present, and Future Forests Eli Sagor [email_address] (612) 624-6948 Updated October 2007

Introductions [instructor names] You (name, where you live, why you’re here)

Housekeeping Please turn off your cell phone as a courtesy (or at least set to vibrate) Restrooms Breaks & refreshments

Minnesota’s forests are resilient. Today’s threats are different. Future forests?

Minnesota’s forests are resilient.

Today’s threats are different.

Future forests?

What we’ll cover Forest development up to 19 th c. Forest change since 19 th c. Current threats Climate change What you can do

Forest development up to 19 th c.

Forest change since 19 th c.

Current threats

Climate change

What you can do

Glacial history Four major glaciation periods Wisconsin glaciation 75,000 - 10,000 years ago Covered almost all of Minnesota

Four major glaciation periods

Wisconsin glaciation

75,000 - 10,000 years ago

Covered almost all of Minnesota

©University of Minnesota Press: J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.9

A train stuck in snow in southern Minnesota March 29, 1881 Source: Wikimedia Commons

A train stuck in snow in southern Minnesota

March 29, 1881

Post-glacial landscape Barren, cold, rocky landscape Glacial till: unsorted sand and rock Little life present

Barren, cold, rocky landscape

Glacial till: unsorted sand and rock

Little life present

Soils Soil formation factors: Climate (freezing, heat, precipitation) Organic matter inputs Chemical weathering

Soil formation factors:

Climate (freezing, heat, precipitation)

Organic matter inputs

Chemical weathering

© University of Minnesota Press: J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.6

Minnesota’s 4 biomes Laurentian Mixed Forest Aspen Parklands Prairie Parklands Eastern Broadleaf Forest

Laurentian mixed forest Laurentian Mixed Forest Aspen Parklands Prairie Parklands Eastern Broadleaf Forest

Eastern broadleaf forest Laurentian Mixed Forest Aspen Parklands Prairie Parklands Eastern Broadleaf Forest

Human impacts since 19 th c. American Indian: Burning Dispersed settlement

American Indian:

Burning

Dispersed settlement

1805 1832 American Indian lands by treaty

Human impacts European American, 19 th c. - present PLSS and land conveyance: colonization Timber harvest: 1850s – 1920s Fires, then fire suppression Regrowth and sustainable management

European American, 19 th c. - present

PLSS and land conveyance: colonization

Timber harvest: 1850s – 1920s

Fires, then fire suppression

Regrowth and sustainable management

Timber harvest, 19 th c. Minnesota Historical Society photo

Minnesota Historical Society photos

Minnesota Historical Society photo

Minnesota forests are resilient

But… Different Different species composition Invaders Smaller patches, more edge *Climate change

Different species composition

Invaders

Smaller patches, more edge

*Climate change

Invasive Species Asian Carp Zebra Mussels Earthworms Emerald Ash Borer Garlic Mustard Gypsy moth

Source: www.usgs.gov -European ^

Source: www.usgs.gov

But… Different Different species composition Invaders Smaller patches, more edge *Climate change

Different species composition

Invaders

Smaller patches, more edge

*Climate change

Climate impacts in Minnesota

© BBC News Guide to Climate Change

© BBC News Guide to Climate Change

Looking to the future Predicted 3.8 – 5.8 °C increase Since end of last ice age: ~8 °C increase

Predicted 3.8 – 5.8 °C increase

Range shifts: Red oak Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species

Range shifts: Red oak FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species

Range shifts: White pine FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species

Range shifts: Trembling aspen FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species

Range shifts: forest types FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species

Bottom line: Major changes Exact, fine-scale changes unknown, but trends are clear.

Major changes

Exact, fine-scale changes unknown, but trends are clear.

Specific change impacts LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...

LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...

Specific change impacts LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts... … and more frequent severe storm events Photo by Minnesota DNR Source: www.forestryimages.org

LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...

Specific change impacts LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts... Gradual decline in vigor and resilience of native stands … and more frequent severe storm events

LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...

Specific change impacts Gradual decline in vigor and resilience of native stands Lots of new growing space not well suited to current species Photo by Joseph O’Brien, USDA Forest Service Source: www.forestryimages.org

Gradual decline in vigor and resilience of native stands

Specific change impacts Lots of new growing space not well suited to current species More invasive species

Lots of new growing space not well suited to current species

Laurentian Mixed Forest Aspen Parklands Prairie Parklands Eastern Broadleaf Forest Greatest change near the border

What you can do Make and support responsible choices Grow (and harvest) more wood Maintain vigor and diversity Consider land protection options

Make and support responsible choices

Grow (and harvest) more wood

Maintain vigor and diversity

Consider land protection options

What you can do Make and support responsible choices Grow (and harvest) more wood Maintain vigor and diversity Consider land protection options

Make and support responsible choices

Grow (and harvest) more wood

Maintain vigor and diversity

Consider land protection options

For more information: Eli Sagor (612) 624-6948 [email_address]