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EY's European Banking Barometer - 1H14
 

EY's European Banking Barometer - 1H14

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EY's fifth European Banking Barometer identifies the views of 294 senior European bankers across 11 markets regarding the macro-economic outlook and regulations, and their impact on the banking ...

EY's fifth European Banking Barometer identifies the views of 294 senior European bankers across 11 markets regarding the macro-economic outlook and regulations, and their impact on the banking industry over the next six months.

For further information visit: www.ey.com/ebb

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    EY's European Banking Barometer - 1H14 EY's European Banking Barometer - 1H14 Presentation Transcript

    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 Confidence masks challenges
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 Contents Page 1 Economic environment 8 2 European sovereign debt crisis 11 3 Business outlook and focus areas 14 4 Business priorities and product line expectations 31 5 Headcount and compensation 45 6 Contacts 54 Page 2
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 Introduction We have developed the European Banking Barometer to provide our clients with a benchmark and overview of the macro-economic outlook and its impact on the European banking industry, as well as the priorities banks will focus on over the next six months. Now in its fifth edition, the latest biannual study consists of 294 interviews with senior bankers across 11 markets: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the Nordics, Poland, Spain, Switzerland and the UK. The fieldwork was conducted via an online questionnaire and telephone interviews between March and April 2014. We interviewed respondents from a range of financial institutions covering at least 50%* of banking assets in each market. A range of bank types were interviewed in each market to help ensure the study was a fair reflection of each country’s banking industry. Interviews were not conducted with subsidiaries of member/group banks. The results in this report are presented in an aggregate market format and shown in percentages. Aggregated European- wide results have been weighted in proportion to countries’ banking assets. All country-level data is unweighted. Please note, some charts may not add up to 100%, and net increase totals may differ slightly from the numbers shown in the charts, as percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole number. Where possible, we have compared and contrasted the data against our European Banking Barometer – 2H13. We would like to thank all the research participants for their contributions to the study. If you would like to take part in our next European Banking Barometer study, please speak to your usual EY contact or refer to your local country contact on page 55. Page 3 * Except in Austria, where they represent 45% of banking assets, Italy 39% and the Nordics 42%.
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14Page 4 Composition of the survey sample by bank type 15 14 12 12 47 Bank type* Universal (large-scale banking group/major bank) Corporate and investment Private bank/wealth manager Specialist (e.g., consumer credit, savings, or a bank that doesn’t offer a current account) Retail and business (SME business banking) * Numbers in the pie chart reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Percentages were calculated using unweighted data. Please note that given the structure of the German and Swiss banking markets, respondents in these two countries were provided with country-specific bank types that have been reallocated to our five European bank types as follows: For Germany, big banks and regional banks were reallocated to universal banks; foreign banks (not headquartered in Germany) were reallocated to corporate and investment banks; private bankers were reallocated to private banks/wealth management; savings banks and cooperative banks were reallocated to retail and business banks; and central building societies, building loan associations and mortgage banks were reallocated to specialist banks. For Switzerland, major banks were reallocated to universal banks; investment banks were reallocated to corporate and investment banks; private bankers (general or limited partnership) and banks under foreign control were reallocated to private banks/wealth management; cantonal banks, and regional and savings banks were reallocated to retail and business banks; and securities traders were reallocated to specialist banks.
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 Composition of the survey sample by bank type Market Total Universal Corporate and investment Private bank/ wealth management Specialist Retail and business (cooperative) Retail and business (state owned) Retail and business (privately owned) Austria 13 7 2 0 2 2 0 0 Belgium 17 2 3 2 1 3 1 5 France 30 6 5 5 2 3 2 7 Germany 103 6 7 6 7 28 44 5 Italy 20 3 4 2 3 6 0 2 Netherlands 7 3 0 0 2 1 0 1 Nordics 20 4 2 3 8 1 0 2 Poland 12 7 1 0 2 0 2 0 Spain 20 2 1 6 3 0 2 6 Switzerland 17 2 0 5 1 1 3 5 UK 35 3 16 6 4 0 0 6 Europe** 294 45 41 35 35 45 54 39 Page 5 Type of bank* * Given the structure of the German and Swiss banking markets, respondents in these two countries were provided with country-specific bank types that have been reallocated to our five European bank types as follows: For Germany, big banks and regional banks were reallocated to universal banks; foreign banks (not headquartered in Germany) were reallocated to corporate and investment banks; private bankers were reallocated to private banks/wealth management; savings banks and cooperative banks were reallocated to retail and business banks; and central building societies, building loan associations and mortgage banks were reallocated to specialist banks. For Switzerland, major banks were reallocated to universal banks; investment banks were reallocated to corporate and investment banks; private bankers (general or limited partnership) and banks under foreign control were reallocated to private banks/wealth management; cantonal banks, and regional and savings banks were reallocated to retail and business banks; and securities traders were reallocated to specialist banks. ** European totals in the table reflect the unweighted number of respondents who answered. All European aggregated percentages in the report are weighted in proportion to markets’ banking assets, as reported by The Banker database, June 2013. All market level figures in this report reflect unweighted data.
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 European overview The gradual recovery of European banks is expected to continue. Most bankers remain positive about the economy and their bank’s performance, but the sector isn’t out of the woods yet. After a significant swing towards optimism in our previous edition, our latest survey reveals that a few more bankers expect the economy to improve but most only anticipate slight improvement. Most respondents also expect improved financial performance from their banks but, again, this will only be slight. Investors might hope that a sector with stronger balance sheets, and an increased focus on growth initiatives, would hasten a return to greater profitability. However, with bankers expecting only an average 1.6% increase in return on equity (ROE), and remaining preoccupied by risk and regulatory issues, there is little evidence that this will happen anytime soon. The recovering economy has yet to translate into a meaningful improvement in bank profitability. ► Economic optimism is now more pronounced, with 64% of respondents expecting their market’s economic outlook to improve, compared with 54% in 2H13. Concerns about the exposure of banks to sovereign debt have also stabilized. ► As a result, 60% of respondents expect their bank’s financial performance to improve over the next six months. Bankers are positive about the outlook for most business lines, particularly private banking and wealth management where 59% believe the outlook is good – reflecting its capital-light model and the growing wealth of high net worth individuals since the global financial crisis. ► However, with bankers anticipating an average revenue increase of just 2.4%, and cost reduction of a mere 0.5%, any improved financial performance will be modest. EY’s analysis suggests that, without more meaningful restructuring, bankers will struggle to achieve even the 1.6% uplift in ROE they are hoping for. Furthermore, we estimate that banks would need to simultaneously reduce costs by about 12% and increase revenues by about 15% just to exceed their cost of equity. Balance sheets continue to strengthen and more banks are beginning to focus on growth. ► Although most banks will continue to shrink their balance sheets, only 8% anticipate raising additional capital following the Asset Quality Review (AQR) and stress tests. Furthermore, due to the improving economic climate, 23% of banks expect to be able to release reserves, compared with just 14% in our previous survey. Page 6
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 European overview ► Stronger balance sheets will allow banks to focus more on growth. Fifty-seven percent of respondents now expect their banks to launch initiatives to promote growth, compared with 49% in our previous survey. Furthermore, 51% now expect to increase lending to customers, compared with 44% in 2H13. ► Corporate lending policies will continue to loosen for many sectors – with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) expected to benefit most. Forty-five percent of bankers expect lending policies to the SME sector will become less restrictive in the next six months. Industry restructuring is slowing. ► Compared with the last edition slightly fewer respondents expect to buy or sell assets in the next year. Nevertheless, 65% of banks still expect to see significant consolidation in the industry within the next three years. ► Following significant restructuring across the industry, fewer banks now expect to see further headcount reductions with just 38% of respondents forecasting additional cuts, compared to 42% six months ago. In some markets, such as the UK and the Nordics, banks expect to recruit staff into growth businesses. But in retail banking and back office functions most are expecting more cuts. But banks are still grappling with the impact of new regulation. ► The top three priorities for banks relate to risk and regulation. Compliance is one of the few business areas where headcount is expected to grow – suggesting that banks continue to struggle with the regulatory burden. ► With regulators increasingly concerned by conduct and consumer protection issues, reputational risk and cybersecurity have emerged as key priorities for banks, especially in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Switzerland. They may also struggle to justify expected pay rises. ► Twenty-seven percent of respondents expect pay to rise in the coming year. The small minority of respondents anticipating double-digit pay hikes at their banks will need to deliver returns well above the industry average, or risk angering investors. Page 7
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14Page 8 Section 1: Economic environment
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 1 8 27 56 8 Across Europe, more bankers are becoming optimistic about their market’s economic recovery … How do you expect the general economic outlook in your market to change over the next six months?* Page 9 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” Comments: The economic optimism of European bankers is now even more pronounced than in our European Banking Barometer – 2H13. Our previous survey was the first in which a majority (54%) of respondents expected the economic outlook for their country to improve. Even more banks (64%) now anticipate economic recovery. This positivity reflects broader macro-economic improvements; the IMF has recently revised its Eurozone GDP forecast upwards, and the region is expected to see increased demand driven by higher consumption and a revival of investment. Only French bankers remain uncertain about the outlook. The greatest improvement is expected in Italy and the Netherlands – but with both economies contracting in the first quarter, this optimism may be short-lived. 1 10 36 50 4 Worsen significantly Worsen slightly Stay the same Improve slightly Improve significantly 2H13 1H14
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 How do you expect the general economic outlook in your market to change over the next six months?* 7 1 6 5 10 5 6 17 8 6 23 14 24 10 8 10 14 20 43 52 27 35 31 57 76 65 58 80 86 75 50 21 56 59 46 23 20 33 1 3 8 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Worsen significantly Worsen slightly Remain at today's levels Improve slightly Improve significantly 1H14 … except in France, which is struggling to regain competitiveness and boost exports Page 10 2H13 Net increase Net increase 23 53 54 0 46 70 86 70 92 80 76 74 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” 5 1 14 20 6 5 29 10 20 26 50 23 14 29 40 50 37 33 36 38 40 65 50 69 86 36 40 44 59 33 50 63 40 9 8 21 4 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria 20 63 43 -1 54 38 20 43 86 77 50 74
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14Page 11 Section 2: European sovereign debt crisis
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 Despite a stronger economic outlook, concerns about the sovereign debt crisis refuse to diminish completely ... What level of impact do you think the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will have on the banking sector in your market over the next six months compared with the previous six months?* Page 12 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. 8 29 46 15 2 5 31 48 15 1 Significantly decreased impact Slightly decreased impact About the same Slightly increased impact Significantly increased impact 2H13 1H14 Comments: Concerns about the exposure of the European banking sector to sovereign debt have stabilized. Our European Banking Barometer – 2H13 showed a remarkable change in the views of respondents on the impact of the sovereign debt crisis as growth returned to the Eurozone. In 1H13, over one-third of respondents expected the impact of the sovereign debt crisis would increase, but that has fallen to one-sixth in our most recent survey, while over one-third now expect its impact to diminish. However, a small group of bankers are likely to remain concerned about sovereign debt until economic growth becomes truly embedded across the Eurozone, or full banking union breaks the link between banks and sovereigns.
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 … particularly in Austria and France, where more banks expect sovereign debt problems to increase rather than decrease What level of impact do you think the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will have on the banking sector in your market over the next six months compared with the previous six months?* Page 13 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. 6 25 10 14 15 5 7 8 8 43 35 20 8 25 43 15 31 17 29 35 15 43 59 20 92 50 43 45 56 47 46 53 38 9 6 25 15 20 7 27 15 12 31 10 5 1 3 2 8 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Significantly decreased impact Slightly decreased impact About the same Slightly increased impact Significantly increased impact 1H14 9 15 7 2 5 5 6 35 30 46 50 30 33 29 19 31 38 20 57 50 23 100 36 50 39 44 52 48 50 60 20 15 7 28 24 24 15 6 20 20 1 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria 2H13 Net increase 15 -24 -20 7 -28 -5 -57 -20 -8 -10 -29 -40 Net increase 0 -38 -19 0 -7 -5 -10 -50 0 -46 -10 -44
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14Page 14 Section 3: Business outlook and focus areas
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 Most bankers still expect their institution’s financial performance to improve … How do you expect your bank’s overall performance to change over the next six months?* Page 15 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” 11 27 53 9 Weaken significantly Weaken slightly Stay the same Strengthen slightly Strengthen significantly 2H13 Comments: Sixty percent of banks expect their financial performance to improve over the next six months. With the leading European banks reporting average full year returns on equity of 3.8%, substantial improvements in financial performance will be required for them to achieve returns that exceed their cost of equity. Sluggish economic growth, persistent ultra-low interest rates, and the potential that the European Central Bank (ECB) will launch its own quantitative easing program mean that if banks want to improve their financial performance they will need to grow revenues through non-interest income and continue to reduce costs aggressively. However, with banks expecting to reduce costs by an average of only 0.5% and grow their revenues by an average of just 2.4% they will struggle to achieve even the 1.6% ROE uplift they are anticipating. EY’s analysis suggests banks would only achieve an uplift in ROE of 0.6% with their revenue growth and cost reduction expectations. Moreover, European banks would need to reduce costs by about 12% and simultaneously increase revenues by about 15% just to exceed their average FY13 cost of equity (9.7%). 1 13 26 50 10 1H14
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria … but an inability to increase revenues and cut costs means they will struggle to deliver meaningful ROE growth How do you expect your bank’s performance measures to change over the next six months?* Page 16 * Numbers reflect the mean percentage change expected. Base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” Increase Percentage increase Revenue Average percentage change 0.46 0.46 2.39 2.73 0.96 0.61 2.14 2.47 4.63 3.71 0.02 5.00 Cost base 0.12 -1.67 -0.49 0.50 -0.50 -1.96 -0.91 0.64 -3.77 -2.20 -1.16 0.10 ROE -0.95 0.02 1.62 1.37 0.37 1.17 1.00 2.36 -0.27 2.97 -0.31 3.88 0.46 0.46 2.39 2.73 0.96 0.61 2.14 2.47 4.63 3.71 0.02 5.00 0.12 -1.67 -0.49 0.50 -0.50 -1.96 -0.91 0.64 -2.20 -1.16 0.10 -0.95 0.02 1.62 1.37 0.37 1.17 2.36 -0.27 2.97 -0.31 3.88 1.00 -3.77
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 83 71 40 67 75 71 75 93 67 74 71 62 14 24 25 25 20 29 10 2 30 19 18 31 3 6 35 8 5 15 4 3 8 12 8 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria No Maybe Yes Most banks believe they have already raised sufficient capital to weather the ECB’s AQR and stress test Does your bank plan to raise capital following the ECB’s AQR and stress test?* Page 17 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” Comments: Just 8% of respondents anticipate raising additional capital following the AQR and stress test. However, the fact that a further 19% think they might have to raise additional capital illustrates a degree of uncertainty and apprehension across the industry about what the AQR will reveal. Several banks have already raised capital levels ahead of the AQR and stress tests. According to Thomson ONE, by the time we completed fieldwork for this survey, Eurozone banks had already raised over US $11 billion of equity this year, compared with just over US $2 billion in the same period in 2013. Since we completed the fieldwork, banks have raised an additional US $24 billion, bringing the total equity raised this year to over US $35 billion. 8 74 19
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 Nevertheless, almost one-third of bankers still expect a further increase in loan loss provisions … Over the next six months, what do you expect your bank’s total provisions against loan losses to do?* Page 18 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” Comments: Slightly fewer banks now expect to raise loan loss provisions (LLPs) than in our last survey. However, despite improving economic indicators, almost a third still expect to raise LLPs in anticipation of the AQR. This is particularly true in Spain, where banks have been required to revalue their real estate portfolios, and in Austria where banks have significant exposure to Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, the improving economic climate across Europe means 23% of banks now expect to be able to release provisions to boost their financial performance, compared with just 14% in our previous survey. 1 22 46 27 3 2 12 54 24 8 Decrease significantly Decrease slightly Stay the same Increase slightly Increase significantly 2H13 1H14
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 … although in the UK strong economic growth means bankers expect to be able to release provisions Over the next six months, what do you expect your bank’s total provisions against loan losses to do?* Page 19 * Numbers reflect the mean scores of respondents who answered on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 denotes “Decrease significantly” and 5 denotes “Increase significantly.” Base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” 1 2 3 4 5 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria 3.50 3.25 3.23 3.33 3.61 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.77 2.87 3.69 3.12 3.10 3.20 3.01 3.25 3.00 2.90 3.00 3.8 3.24 2.69 1H14 2H13 3.10 3.14 Decrease significantly Increase significantly Stay the same
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 28 28 30 17 30 25 15 34 21 12 16 16 19 19 21 24 26 26 27 29 33 36 39 45 More restrictive Less restrictive 31 21 25 11 32 18 12 40 22 9 11 22 17 29 17 30 20 33 29 22 25 42 34 45 Transport (incl. automotive and shipping)** Media and telecommunications Financial services Information technology Construction Energy, mining and minerals** Commercial and professional services** Commercial real estate Retail and consumer products** Health care Manufacturing and industrials (incl. chemicals, eng.)** SMEs 23 23 33 3 -17 17 15 -12 18 -8 8 -14 Further easing of corporate lending policies is anticipated for many sectors, reflecting the improved economic outlook How do you expect the corporate lending policies of banks in your market to change in each of the following sectors over the next six months?* Page 20 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Remain unchanged” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” ** Energy and mining includes minerals; manufacturing includes industries, chemicals and engineering; commercial services includes professional services; retail includes consumer products and; transport includes automotive and shipping. 1H142H13 Net less restrictive Net less restrictive Comments: The prospects for corporate lending continue to improve for most sectors. The outlook is most positive for the SMEs, where 45% of respondents expect lending to be less restrictive. Notably, even the tightening of lending policies to the construction and commercial real estate sectors has slowed dramatically from our previous surveys. Nevertheless, despite banks being more willing to lend, overall access to bank credit remains limited and a further loosening of lending policies will be required for Europe to see a return to loan growth. 29 23 24 12 -5 12 1 -4 7 -8 -9 -9 ■ More restrictive ■ Less restrictive
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 32 48 38 19 41 25 19 41 19 14 29 30 14 5 5 24 27 25 14 23 19 29 29 35 39 28 34 20 31 38 15 34 30 17 17 18 14 9 7 23 21 12 23 28 18 31 42 44 Transport** Media and telecomms Financial services Information technology Construction Energy and mining** Commercial services** Commercial real estate Retail** Health care Manufacturing** SMEs Austria Germany Belgium Italy France Netherlands Lending to SMEs is expected to be less restrictive in all countries except Austria … How do you expect the corporate lending policies of banks in your market to change in each of the following sectors over the next six months?* Page 21 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” ** Energy and mining includes minerals; manufacturing includes industries, chemicals and engineering; commercial services includes professional services; retail includes consumer products and; transport includes automotive and shipping. 31 42 42 38 23 17 15 38 15 8 42 25 38 38 67 54 31 92 54 69 69 33 17 50 20 50 50 17 17 17 40 33 33 17 33 17 33 17 40 50 20 Transport** Media and telecomms Financial services Information technology Construction Energy and mining** Commercial services** Commercial real estate Retail** Health care Manufacturing** SMEs 30 40 20 20 40 11 10 40 36 9 40 27 10 10 10 30 11 30 20 45 36 40 36 25 33 33 33 75 33 67 100 67 33 33 25 33 33 33 25 33 33 33 33 33 25 ■ More restrictive ■ Less restrictive
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 Nordics Switzerland Poland UK Spain … and the Netherlands How do you expect the corporate lending policies of banks in your market to change in each of the following sectors over the next six months?* Page 22 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” ** Energy and mining includes minerals; manufacturing includes industries, chemicals and engineering; commercial services includes professional services; retail includes consumer products and; transport includes automotive and shipping. 24 12 12 6 12 19 12 29 18 18 12 18 6 18 24 24 18 13 18 24 29 35 29 35 Transport** Media and telecomms Financial services Information technology Construction Energy and mining** Commercial services** Commercial real estate Retail** Health care Manufacturing** SMEs 18 18 18 9 36 18 27 45 45 82 36 27 36 55 36 55 55 64 73 22 11 25 22 56 22 13 11 22 56 44 13 33 67 22 22 44 38 22 67 33 43 43 29 14 43 29 29 57 29 14 29 43 14 14 29 29 43 14 29 43 29 29 29 Transport** Media and telecomms Financial services Information technology Construction Energy and mining** Commercial services** Commercial real estate Retail** Health care Manufacturing** SMEs 12 6 25 6 5 11 6 6 18 5 6 29 29 35 17 26 28 35 47 35 37 32 59 ■ More restrictive ■ Less restrictive
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 1 2 3 4 5 Launching initiatives to promote growth Introduction/increasing incentives to increase customer deposits Lending to customers Seeking funding from wholesale capital markets Repaying central bank funding programs Reducing loan to deposit ratios Selling assets outside home markets Selling assets outside Europe Reducing the balance sheet Accessing central bank funding programs An increasingly favorable operating environment means that more bankers are beginning to prioritize growth initiatives How likely are the banks in your market to be engaged in the following activities over the next six months?* Page 23 * Numbers reflect the mean scores of respondents who answered on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 denotes “Significantly less” and 5 denotes “Significantly more.” Comments: An improving economy and stronger balance sheets mean the emphasis bankers are placing on growth, first identified in EY’s European Banking Barometer – 2H13, is now even more prominent. Fifty-seven percent of bankers now anticipate launching initiatives to promote growth, while 51% expect to increase lending to customers – up from 49% and 44%, respectively, in our last survey. Banks in Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain are most focused on growing lending and developing new initiatives to promote growth. That does not mean balance sheets are fully repaired, however, and banks are still recalibrating their funding profiles by repaying central bank funding programs, and turning to deposit funding. Fifty-one percent of bankers expect their banks to introduce incentives to increase customer deposits over the next six months and loan to deposit ratios are also expected to improve. Significantly less Significantly more 3.49 3.64 3.30 3.36 3.50 3.19 3.32 3.29 3.33 2.68 3.59 3.44 3.42 3.32 3.27 3.26 3.24 3.22 3.17 2.61 Significantly less Significantly more Stay the same 1H14 2H13
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 30 5 5 15 10 5 5 10 5 5 10 10 10 5 5 35 20 30 40 40 35 65 35 55 10 10 25 20 5 15 20 5 10 3028 40 39 14 22 29 21 23 25 14 4 8 9 2 4 2 1 7 1 13 8 10 18 16 10 13 10 19 23 2 5 2 13 10 11 14 13 10 12 23 37 43 30 40 30 40 23 50 43 3 3 3 10 3 13 3 20 10 20 13 3 7 7 3 7 23 3 7 7 3 3 3 6 24 35 12 35 59 41 53 41 41 12 6 12 18 6 12 41 18 6 6 6 24 6 29 12 24 12 6 6 8 15 23 8 8 38 31 15 8 15 15 23 8 15 15 23 15 15 31 8 23 23 23 38 8 8 31 8 8 8 8 8 8 23 29 43 43 29 71 71 29 43 29 29 14 43 43 29 14 14 14 Austria Germany Belgium Italy France Netherlands They also continue to rebalance their funding profiles by reducing reliance on central banks … How likely are the banks in your market to be engaged in the following activities over the next six months?* Page 24 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Significantly moreSlightly moreSignificantly less Slightly less Launching initiatives to promote growth Introduction/increasing incentives to increase customer deposits Lending to customers Seeking funding from wholesale capital markets Repaying central bank funding programs Reducing loan to deposit ratios Selling assets outside home markets Selling assets outside Europe Reducing the balance sheet Accessing central bank funding programs Launching initiatives to promote growth Introduction/increasing incentives to increase customer deposits Lending to customers Seeking funding from wholesale capital markets Repaying central bank funding programs Reducing loan to deposit ratios Selling assets outside home markets Selling assets outside Europe Reducing the balance sheet Accessing central bank funding programs
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 25 25 40 35 35 35 50 60 35 70 5 10 10 20 5 15 15 25 15 5 35 20 20 15 25 5 15 20 15 5 5 5 29 29 31 26 46 43 49 34 51 6 9 14 3 6 11 9 17 51 29 20 17 17 6 6 11 9 6 11 11 6 6 6 6 3 8 8 17 42 58 67 58 33 8 17 8 42 8 8 25 8 25 25 17 8 8 6 44 35 24 35 12 35 63 41 6 6 6 6 6 12 29 19 6 29 12 24 24 19 24 18 6 6 45 15 15 40 15 10 35 45 40 5 5 10 10 5 10 5 5 20 15 5 20 5 20 5 15 15 5 5 Nordics Switzerland Poland Spain … and introducing initiatives to increase customer deposits How likely are the banks in your market to be engaged in the following activities over the next six months?* Page 25 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Significantly moreSlightly moreSignificantly less Slightly less UK Launching initiatives to promote growth Introduction/increasing incentives to increase customer deposits Lending to customers Seeking funding from wholesale capital markets Repaying central bank funding programs Reducing loan to deposit ratios Selling assets outside home markets Selling assets outside Europe Reducing the balance sheet Accessing central bank funding programs Launching initiatives to promote growth Introduction/increasing incentives to increase customer deposits Lending to customers Seeking funding from wholesale capital markets Repaying central bank funding programs Reducing loan to deposit ratios Selling assets outside home markets Selling assets outside Europe Reducing the balance sheet Accessing central bank funding programs
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 The current restructuring of the banking sector is slowing, with fewer banks anticipating buying or selling assets … Which, if any, of the following is your bank likely to consider over the next six months in relation to the countries in which it operates?* Page 26 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents could select more than one option. 29 33 25 38 23 24 24 45 Sell assets Buy assets Partnerships or joint ventures None of these 2H13 1H14 Comments: Over the past five years, many banks have sold assets as they have restructured their businesses to reduce complexity, raise capital or focus on core strengths. As a result, the number of bankers expecting asset sales (and accompanying purchases) has fallen. The majority of remaining asset sales are expected to be in Europe, as most banks have already exited non-core overseas franchises. Most asset purchases will also be in Europe. Where banks are considering overseas expansion, alliances are often the most attractive option. This is not only due to regulatory requirements in these markets, but also because many banks have learned from their previous mistakes of over-expansion. Joint ventures or partnerships can help banks gain exposure to high-growth markets without major upfront investment, as highlighted in EY’s 2014 report Banking in emerging markets: investing for success.
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 … except in Spain and the Nordics where more banks expect to buy and sell assets Which, if any, of the following is your bank likely to consider over the next six months in relation to the countries in which it operates?* Page 27 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents could select more than one option. Sell assets Buy assets Partnerships or joint ventures None of these 35 40 38 10 39 17 43 29 31 40 26 12 45 17 15 14 35 7 23 23 35 38 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria 43 30 15 13 21 30 11 15 57 33 38 10 17 18 40 0 30 14 15 10 40 24 24 31 1H14 2H13 30 20 46 25 14 40 28 15 24 25 13 10 23 29 30 17 10 14 20 14 37 24 29 15 22 40 23 63 71 40 50 63 19 38 38 50 51 59 5 67 50 57 45 73 30 45 35 23 0 0
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 For banks thinking about expansion, particularly outside of Europe, collaboration is seen as increasingly important In which regions is your bank likely to sell assets, buy assets or consider joint ventures over the next six months?* Page 28 * Numbers represent the total number of mentions for that particular region. Respondents could state more than one region. 1 5 4 9 9 12 0 5 10 15 Joint ventures Sell assets Buy assets North America 5 7 5 15 5 8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Joint ventures Sell assets Buy assets Asia Pacific 31 36 41 43 46 47 0 20 40 Joint ventures Sell assets Buy assets Europe 2 1 2 8 4 1 0 5 10 Joint ventures Sell assets Buy assets South America 1 2 2 5 6 0 2 4 6 8 Joint ventures Sell assets Buy assets Middle East 4 5 3 6 5 2 4 6 8 10 Joint ventures Sell assets Buy assets Across the world 1H14 2H13
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 I do not anticipate any consolidation Small-scale consolidation Medium-scale consolidation Large-scale consolidation 21 44 29 6 Despite a slowdown in industry restructuring, 65% of banks expect significant consolidation within the next three years To what extent do you anticipate consolidation of the banking industry over the next 12 months and within the next three years?* Page 29 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. 1H14 base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” Within three years12 months Comments: Despite the significant strides banks have made in strengthening their balance sheets, not only is it still early days for the European economic recovery, but the AQR is in progress. As a result, most institutions remain cautious of major acquisitions in the near term. As a result, only 7% of respondents anticipate large-scale consolidation in the next 12 months – the majority in Spain and France. However, over the next three years 63% of respondents expect medium- or large-scale consolidation. This longer-term consolidation will be focused in countries with a large number of small local banks (such as Spain and Italy) and may be accelerated by the AQR. In countries where the sector is already fairly concentrated (such as the UK), fewer bankers anticipate significant consolidation even in the medium term. 7 28 43 22 1H142H13 Within three years12 months 7 25 43 26 13 41 30 13
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 5 16 40 53 35 32 20 I do not anticipate any consolidation Small-scale consolidation Medium-scale consolidation Large-scale consolidation Italian banks expect the greatest consolidation of their sector – both in the short and medium term To what extent do you anticipate consolidation of the banking industry in your market over the next 12 months and within the next three years?* Page 30 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents who answered “Don’t know.” Austria Belgium Germany Europe Netherlands 15 8 31 46 46 46 8 3 years 12 months Nordics SwitzerlandPoland UKSpain 24 35 65 53 6 12 6 8 27 58 64 33 93 years 12 months 6 22 29 43 44 28 21 7 14 57 57 29 14 14 14 11 42 58 47 21 11 11 20 44 40 35 26 18 14 3 6 6 12 41 47 41 35 12 Italy 5 35 74 60 21 5 France 8 28 62 53 28 18 2 3 years 12 months 17 21 41 54 28 25 14
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14Page 31 Section 4: Business priorities and product line expectations
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 12 14 18 18 18 20 27 31 42 46 47 51 56 8 12 13 13 24 37 40 47 15 16 21 23 33 39 Off-shoring Disposing of assets or businesses New remuneration systems Outsourcing Reducing the number of products Diversity requirements relating to CRD IV³ Acquiring new assets or businesses Developing partnerships with non-banks Restructuring the business to comply with regulations Financial Transaction Tax Developing recovery and resolution plans Current changes in financial reporting/IFRS Establishing new business segments New foreign markets/internationalization Restructuring the business to cut costs The threat of financial crime Compliance with consumer regulation/remediation Developing/introducing new products Minimizing non-essential expenditure Investing in customer-facing technology Cutting costs Compliance with capital market regulations Capital and liquidity and the leverage ratio² Streamlining processes Cybersecurity/data security Reputational risk¹ Risk management 1H14 Page 32 Risk and regulation remain at the top of banks’ agendas in all markets, but there is a growing division over whether … * Respondents were asked to rank the importance of activities on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 denotes “Not at all important” and 10 denotes “Very important.” Numbers show the percentage of respondents selecting either 8, 9 or 10. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply.” 1 Reputational risk includes tax transparency; compliance with capital markets regulations, i.e., MiFID II/EMIR; and investing in new customer-facing technology, e.g., mobile solutions. 2 For 2H13 survey, capital and liquidity and the leverage ratio were referred to as "Preparing for Basel III/CRD IV." 3 Diversity requirements relating to CRD IV – putting in place a policy to promote diversity on management board. Rank the importance of the following agenda items for your organization* Comments: There are no signs that the regulatory burden for banks is diminishing – and with many European regulators increasingly concerned about banks’ conduct, including customer protection, it is no surprise that risk and regulation remain at the top of bankers’ priorities. Reputational risk is seen as particularly important. Recent analysis by the LSE revealed that between 2008 and 2012, conduct costs (including provisions and contingent liabilities), for just 10 leading banks in Europe and the US exceeded US $230bn4 – underscoring the importance of resolving these issues. In this survey we have, for the first time, asked specifically about cybersecurity. This has emerged as a major issue for many financial institutions and is a key concern for banks in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Switzerland. Beyond risk and regulation, the shift in banks’ focus from survival to growth is highlighted by most items related to innovation and growth moving up several places in our ranking. More banks are now moving from preservation to expansion. 2H13 1H14 Rank order of importance 2 7 - 3 1 6 8 9 4 13 5 - 12 19 16 10 11 - 14 17 18 - 23 21 15 20 22 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Risk and regulation Cost cutting and efficiency Innovation and growth 4 http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/conductcosts/bank-conduct-costs-results/
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 33 50 67 67 43 33 71 83 71 71 86 14 43 43 43 0 17 14 29 11 6 12 13 6 29 37 50 37 14 47 15 49 40 51 3 4 8 23 Restructuring the business to comply with regulations Financial Transaction Tax Developing recovery and resolution plans Current changes in financial reporting/IFRS Establishing new business segments New foreign markets/internationalization Restructuring the business to cut costs The threat of financial crime Compliance with consumer regulation/remediation Developing/introducing new products Minimizing non-essential expenditure Investing in customer-facing technology Cutting costs Compliance with capital market regulations Capital and liquidity and the leverage ratio² Streamlining processes Cybersecurity/data security Reputational risk¹ Risk management ItalyGermany 33 33 36 27 17 10 36 67 17 67 50 50 42 50 67 16.7 9 27 55 Restructuring the business to comply with regulations Financial Transaction Tax Developing recovery and resolution plans Current changes in financial reporting/IFRS Establishing new business segments New foreign markets/internationalization Restructuring the business to cut costs The threat of financial crime Compliance with consumer regulation/remediation Developing/introducing new products Minimizing non-essential expenditure Investing in customer-facing technology Cutting costs Compliance with capital market regulations Capital and liquidity and the leverage ratio² Streamlining processes Cybersecurity/data security Reputational risk¹ Risk management 19 21 19 21 38 48 29 37 60 45 41 37 34 48 53 24 44 45 57 31 25 6 24 12 50 44 53 65 59 65 44 41 71 41 6 0 12 47 19 29 7 17 17 17 35 41 17 58 63 32 40 35 45 45 28 47 22 Page 33 … their next priority is cost-cutting and efficiency, as in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands … * Respondents were asked to rank the importance of activities on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 denotes “Not at all important” and 10 denotes “Very important.” Numbers show the percentage of respondents selecting either 8, 9 or 10. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply.” 1 Reputational risk includes tax transparency; compliance with capital markets regulations, i.e., MiFID II/EMIR; and investing in new customer-facing technology, e.g., mobile solutions. 2 For 2H13 survey, capital and liquidity and the leverage ratio were referred to as "Preparing for Basel III/CRD IV." Rank the importance of the following agenda items for your organization* Risk and regulation Cost cutting and efficiency Innovation and growth Austria Belgium France Netherlands
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 22 17 24 6 50 32 37 42 40 55 55 15 55 50 45 32 60 35 35 12 0 16 21 11 0 50 33 37 63 47 0 17 16 47 11 6 21 35 Restructuring the business to comply with regulations Financial Transaction Tax Developing recovery and resolution plans Current changes in financial reporting/IFRS Establishing new business segments New foreign markets/internationalization Restructuring the business to cut costs The threat of financial crime Compliance with consumer regulation/remediation Developing/introducing new products Minimizing non-essential expenditure Investing in customer-facing technology Cutting costs Compliance with capital market regulations Capital and liquidity and the leverage ratio² Streamlining processes Cybersecurity/data security Reputational risk¹ Risk management Switzerland Nordics Poland UK 18 0 0 29 18 29 59 59 71 53 82 24 35 53 35 18 0 35 47 Restructuring the business to comply with regulations Financial Transaction Tax Developing recovery and resolution plans Current changes in financial reporting/IFRS Establishing new business segments New foreign markets/internationalization Restructuring the business to cut costs The threat of financial crime Compliance with consumer regulation/remediation Developing/introducing new products Minimizing non-essential expenditure Investing in customer-facing technology Cutting costs Compliance with capital market regulations Capital and liquidity and the leverage ratio² Streamlining processes Cybersecurity/data security Reputational risk¹ Risk management Page 34 … or innovation and growth, as in Spain, Poland and the UK * Respondents were asked to rank the importance of activities on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 denotes “Not at all important” and 10 denotes “Very important.” Numbers show the percentage of respondents selecting either 8, 9 or 10. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply.” 1 Reputational risk includes tax transparency; compliance with capital markets regulations, i.e., MiFID II/EMIR; and investing in new customer-facing technology, e.g., mobile solutions. 2 For 2H13 survey, capital and liquidity and the leverage ratio were referred to as "Preparing for Basel III/CRD IV." Rank the importance of the following agenda items for your organization* Risk and regulation Cost cutting and efficiency Innovation and growth Spain 13 20 19 15 34 27 45 41 41 65 59 25 27 24 44 32 23 47 38 11 20 36 25 45 27 27 73 55 67 83 17 27 50 50 27 0 45 58
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 Many bankers continue to anticipate an improved outlook for all business lines … How do you rate the outlook for your bank over the next six months in each of the following business lines?* Page 35 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Neither good, nor poor” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply” or chose not to answer. 19 12 8 10 8 8 10 10 5 3 3 6 3 2 1 3 2 3 35 36 33 32 43 43 40 44 57 3 4 6 9 6 7 13 10 10 Securities trading Securities services Transaction advisory (e.g., M&A) Debt and equity issuance Deposit business Corporate banking Asset management Retail banking Private banking and wealth management 27 37 32 33 44 44 39 42 48 7 5 9 9 9 6 10 9 12 15 11 20 9 10 12 9 7 8 1 3 2 3 1 2 4 2 Securities trading Securities services Transaction advisory (e.g., M&A) Debt and equity issuance Deposit business Corporate banking Asset management Retail banking Private banking and wealth management Net increase 50 40 37 40 41 28 19 32 18 Net increase1H142H13 59 42 41 40 39 28 26 24 16 Very goodFairly goodVery poor Fairly poor Comments: Bankers remain most optimistic about the outlook for private banking and wealth management. It is a particularly attractive segment, given its capital-light business model, and it is also a growing market. The wealth of EU28 billionaires has almost doubled since 2009 and grew around 23% in the last year alone, and is illustrative of increasing affluence of high net worth individuals. However, while the majority of bankers in all markets expect the outlook to improve for this business, it is also likely to be a very competitive segment. Bankers also expect an improved outlook for retail and corporate banking. With signs of an economic recovery in Europe, respondents are clearly hopeful that both businesses and individuals will look to borrow and invest. The outlook is less positive for securities services and trading; investment banks continue to suffer from the decline in fixed income businesses.
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 19 6 20 50 6 5 13 10 7 8 6 10 6 3 2 19 44 61 64 40 50 47 55 46 44 36 25 19 6 6 18 20 11 8 10 21 8 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria 63 44 68 70 75 33 53 63 48 57 77 40 4 6 21 10 13 33 6 8 12 10 0 10 4 13 5 33 3 4 5 10 4 2 8 3 10 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria … with the strongest performance expected in wealth management, retail banking … How do you rate the outlook for your bank over the next six months in each of the following business lines?* Page 36 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Neither good, nor poor” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply” or chose not to answer. Retail bankingPrivate banking and wealth management Corporate banking 56 36 42 80 25 40 56 39 38 43 42 23 7 16 10 13 2 12 7 8 14 20 6 8 15 8 17 15 6 2 1 8 8 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Very goodFairly goodVery poor Fairly poor 38 44 60 25 55 25 30 33 42 40 46 30 25 6 30 9 20 3 8 13 10 4 13 5 9 75 5 9 4 10 15 4 2 4 3 8 20 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Asset management
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 30 53 63 30 43 50 24 33 25 36 27 27 5 11 6 3 4 9 9 20 13 5 20 25 6 16 13 12 6 1 4 3 27 9 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria 13 17 12 13 17 5 10 8 11 6 12 3 8 39 17 6 55 36 80 13 20 43 32 42 11 4 29 45 6 3 5 9 22 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria 36 31 50 64 33 20 22 53 53 43 69 33 8 6 17 9 11 5 3 6 8 4 13 11 20 11 8 7 8 13 20 6 1 2 17 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Deposit business 4 7 6 17 20 18 9 8 33 4 7 6 7 9 6 10 22 43 20 50 44 17 40 29 19 35 33 30 22 9 17 11 6 3 4 6 10 11 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria … and asset management. The outlook also remains very positive for corporate banking … How do you rate the outlook for your bank over the next six months in each of the following business lines?* Page 37 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Neither good, nor poor” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply” or chose not to answer. Securities services Debt and equity issuance Very goodFairly goodVery poor Fairly poor Transaction advisory
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 28 56 53 20 38 20 37 26 32 35 20 45 4 16 3 9 28 19 11 10 13 60 11 13 12 19 30 9 5 2 4 3 10 18 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria … but is more mixed for investment banking, with securities trading continuing to struggle How do you rate the outlook for your bank over the next six months in each of the following business lines?* Page 38 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Neither good, nor poor” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply” or chose not to answer. Very goodFairly goodVery poor Fairly poor Securities trading
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 5 8 4 5 13 1 2 3 2 41 45 47 48 50 3 7 7 6 8 Credit cards Personal savings and deposits Personal investment products Personal loans Personal real estate loans 36 54 46 48 50 3 5 8 5 6 4 8 5 8 16 2 1 2 2 Credit cards Personal savings and deposits Personal investment products Personal loans Personal real estate loans Bankers expect growth in demand for credit and investment products to persist as the economy recovers … How do you expect customer demand for retail products at your bank to change over the next six months?* Page 39 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply.” 1H142H13 Net increase 39 44 47 49 35 Net increase 44 49 48 42 38 Comments: The improved outlook for retail banking is clearly driven by an anticipated increase in demand for all credit and investment products. The combination of falling unemployment, a more stable economy and ultra-low rates across Europe will allow more individuals – at least for the moment – to take on debt at low interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of banks expect demand to increase for real estate and 51% for personal loans, respectively. Low interest rates are also driving the increased demand for personal investment products. With deposit rates at minimal levels, we expect customers across Europe to look for alternative ways to improve the return on their savings. Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 6 5 11 5 4 4 13 1 4 3 8 14 39 38 53 56 86 33 77 45 43 47 46 43 6 6 21 8 4 7 8 14 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Personal loans 56 38 72 67 25 33 54 48 43 48 42 38 11 6 11 13 1 5 6 13 33 8 9 5 5 8 13 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria … with much greater demand for real estate loans anticipated in the Nordics and Italy, for personal loans in Spain … How do you expect customer demand for retail products at your bank to change over the next six months?* Page 40 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply.” 41 31 61 89 25 67 31 37 57 45 46 33 6 6 15 5 13 7 11 19 11 11 8 18 8 8 22 33 2 11 Personal savings and deposit products Personal real estate loans 31 69 50 33 100 33 77 58 33 50 62 38 19 11 11 9 10 8 13 6 11 11 67 8 5 24 13 23 6 6 1 2 8 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Personal investment products Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 … the UK and Poland, and for credit cards in the Netherlands How do you expect customer demand for retail products at your bank to change over the next six months?* Page 41 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply.” Credit cards 6 7 6 21 2 5 5 1 1 8 31 40 53 33 25 100 43 37 43 41 42 13 6 3 5 3 13 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 11 11 10 11 12 7 6 6 6 1 29 24 28 32 53 2 7 3 7 5 Hedging products Equity issuance/IPOs M&A advisory Debt issuance Corporate loans 27 21 33 36 50 5 9 8 5 10 15 13 11 7 7 7 4 2 3 Hedging products Equity issuance/IPOs M&A advisory Debt issuance Corporate loans Demand is still expected to increase for corporate products, albeit at a lower rate than in 2H13 Page 42 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply.” 1H142H13 Net increase 54 32 29 12 11 Net increase 44 22 16 13 13 Comments: A more stable economy is also allowing companies to begin to think about expansion. Improvement in the Composite European Purchasing Managers Index, which tracks projected spending and production levels, suggests that European corporations will increase their capital expenditure. This expansion and investment will drive demand for advisory services and financing in the coming months. The greatest rise in demand is expected to be for corporate loans, and is most stark in Poland and the Nordics where 100% and 75% of respondents, respectively, expect this to increase. Demand for capital markets financing is also expected to increase, though much less rapidly, suggesting that a structural shift in the way European companies raise money is some way off. Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly How do you expect customer demand for corporate products at your bank to change over the next six months?*
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 30 36 50 67 57 50 31 17 28 32 13 43 10 11 15 3 11 7 13 14 15 14 10 8 14 11 11 29 10 14 11 6 13 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Demand for debt, in the form of corporate loans and bonds, is expected to increase in almost all markets … How do you expect demand for corporate products at your bank to change over the next six months?* Page 43 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply.” 55 27 60 89 75 60 54 59 52 53 33 30 5 7 10 11 15 4 5 20 18 7 13 40 8 5 10 12 22 30 7 1 1 10 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Corporate loans Debt issuance 33 8 40 75 20 50 50 12 22 28 43 17 5 0 0 7 2 6 3 17 14 23 0 8 11 10 14 17 7 14 11 6 14 17 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria M&A advisory Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly 6 18 10 13 33 9 16 6 11 14 17 19 11 6 14 33 18 30 38 40 33 27 9 22 24 29 17 0 10 9 2 6 7 17 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Equity issuance/IPOs
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 … but demand for equity financing will be more subdued, especially in Germany and Belgium How do you expect demand for corporate products at your bank to change over the next six months?* Page 44 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Does not apply.” 5 14 10 17 25 8 21 5 11 7 10 8 13 10 7 14 13 55 14 30 78 17 75 38 12 10 29 43 13 7 5 2 13 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria Hedging products Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14Page 45 Section 5: Headcount and compensation
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 1H14 27 3317 23 2348 A decline is anticipated in overall headcount, but the pace of cuts is expected to slow in most countries ... Over the next six months, how do you expect the headcount of your bank to change?* Page 46 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Don’t know.” Comments: The number of bankers expecting headcount reductions has fallen and the number expecting job growth has risen. Thirty-eight percent of bankers now expect headcount to fall, compared with 42% in our last survey. Thirty percent of respondents expect headcount to increase, up from 25% in 2H13. A significant number of job losses are anticipated in Austria (53%), France (40%) and Switzerland (35%), where cost-cutting remains a key concern. However, in the Nordics and the UK, where institutions are beginning to focus on growth, 47% and 49% of respondents, respectively, actually expect to increase headcount. Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly 2H13 Net increase -8 -18
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 23 35 20 27 16 57 50 32 33 31 29 38 3 20 18 5 14 5 3 7 7 18 15 40 18 30 27 47 14 25 21 20 27 29 23 9 5 3 6 8 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria -23 -12 -8 -20 -14 -30 -57 26 -18 -5 -18 23 … and in the Nordics and the UK many bankers now expect staff numbers to increase Over the next six months, how do you expect the headcount of your bank to change?* Page 47 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Don’t know.” 1H14 26 50 31 75 21 30 44 24 43 34 25 40 4 23 7 10 6 12 10 8 13 20 35 20 15 25 43 40 28 12 14 23 31 10 4 10 2 2 6 UK Switzerland Spain Poland Nordics Netherlands Italy Germany France Europe Belgium Austria 2H13 Net increase -50 -1 -18 -39 -22 -22 10 15 -50 -39 -30 9 Net increase Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 4 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 26 27 7 12 18 8 10 27 2 3 6 9 14 14 12 9 25 28 9 10 21 14 12 35 Other head office functions Operations and IT Compliance, risk and finance Corporate banking Investment banking Private banking and wealth management Asset management Retail and business banking Recruitment will be focused on growth sectors, such as private banking, as well as compliance functions … In which areas of the business do you expect headcount to increase or decrease?* Page 48 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents answering that headcount would “Stay the same.” ■ Decrease ■ Increase 1H142H13 -25 0 0 -7 -1 -3 -25 -23 Net increase Net increase -16 0 3 -7 -3 2 -21 -22 Comments: A seemingly unending wave of regulation and more assertive supervision continues to force banks to recruit staff to strengthen their compliance departments. Banks are also recruiting in growth areas, such as private banking. However, job losses are expected across other parts of the business. The greatest cuts will continue to be in the head office, operations and IT. A majority of bankers in almost all markets expect cuts to these functions. Twenty-seven percent of respondents also anticipate cuts in retail and business banking, with only bankers in the Nordics anticipating overall job growth in this segment; 31% expect headcount to increase and just 15% expect it to decrease. The outlook is also pretty gloomy for investment bankers – only in the UK, Italy, Spain and Poland do more respondents expect investment bank staff numbers to increase rather than decrease.
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 6 6 13 13 6 13 25 44 6 6 6 6 50 17 17 33 50 17 17 33 17 17 50 7 14 21 14 21 7 14 43 36 7 7 29 14 7 21 11 17 17 17 33 6 11 22 28 9 18 18 27 9 36 18 36 45 18 18 36 Other head office functions Operations and IT Compliance, risk and finance Corporate banking Investment banking Private banking and wealth management Asset management Retail and business banking Germany Belgium Italy France Netherlands … while job cuts in retail banking … In which areas of the business do you expect headcount to increase or decrease?* Page 49 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents answering that headcount would “Stay the same.” Austria 5 10 12 9 5 3 5 9 26 21 9 10 9 3 12 33 Other head office functions Operations and IT Compliance, risk and finance Corporate banking Investment banking Private banking and wealth management Asset management Retail and business banking ■ Decrease ■ Increase
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 4 8 8 19 27 15 15 12 23 23 8 12 23 4 12 13 13 13 50 25 13 13 13 25 7 7 7 7 27 33 13 47 27 7 13 13 20 20 27 8 8 15 15 31 23 8 15 8 8 8 15 Other head office functions Operations and IT Compliance, risk and finance Corporate banking Investment banking Private banking and wealth management Asset management Retail and business banking … and the head office continue unabated In which areas of the business do you expect headcount to increase or decrease?* Page 50 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents answering that headcount would “Stay the same.” Switzerland Poland UK SpainNordics 22 11 22 11 22 Other head office functions Operations and IT Compliance, risk and finance Corporate banking Investment banking Private banking and wealth management Asset management Retail and business banking ■ Decrease ■ Increase
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 4 1 5 15 3 28 2 2 1 5 1 11 +/- 10+% +/- 8-10% +/- 5-8% +/- 2-5% +/- 1-2% Total Even though staff numbers are expected to fall, 28% of bankers expect their pay to increase Compared to last year (FY13), to what extent will aggregate (i.e., total fixed and performance-related) compensation change at your bank this year (FY14)? Page 51 * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Don’t know.” Decrease Increase Comments: It is perhaps surprising that, given respondents’ expectations of continued industry restructuring and the apparent inability of the sector to meaningfully improve ROE, 25% of banks expect aggregate pay to rise by over 2% in FY14 – above the current rate of inflation in both the euro area and the UK – with 4% expecting double-digit pay rises. There is a risk that with caps on bonuses, some of this rise will become an additional fixed cost for banks at a time when they are struggling to reduce their cost base or grow their revenues. Furthermore, with average ROE expected to remain well below the average cost of equity, banks will need to be able to justify any significant increases for individuals, or risk criticism from shareholders and politicians. Net increase 17 2 10 4 -1 3
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 15 16 30 3 1 2 1 7 +/- 10+% +/- 8-10% +/- 5-8% +/- 2-5% +/- 1-2% Total 8 8 8 17 25 +/- 10+% +/- 8-10% +/- 5-8% +/- 2-5% +/- 1-2% Total 43 43 14 14 14 43 Austria Germany Belgium Italy France Netherlands Page 52 While most bankers across Europe expect their pay to stay the same … * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Don’t know.” 6 6 12 6 6 12 10 14 24 5 10 5 20 10 5 15 Decrease Increase Net increase -17 0 -8 0 -8 0 Net increase 0 0 0 0 -6 6 Net increase 24 0 14 10 0 0 Net increase 23 15 13 0 -1 -3 Net increase 5 5 5 0 -10 5 Net increase 0 -14 29 0 -14 0 Compared to last year (FY13), to what extent will aggregate (i.e., total fixed and performance-related) compensation change at your bank this year (FY14?)?
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 10 5 15 10 10 +/- 10+% +/- 8-10% +/- 5-8% +/- 2-5% +/- 1-2% Total Nordics Switzerland Poland UK Spain Page 53 … more than 10% of respondents in Spain and the UK expect double-digit increases! * Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering “Stay the same” are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering “Don’t know.” 27 9 36 11 17 17 6 50 11 11 12 3 9 18 41 3 6 9 6 12 18 6 12 6 24 +/- 10+% +/- 8-10% +/- 5-8% +/- 2-5% +/- 1-2% Total Net increase 5 0 5 0 10 -10 Net increase 36 9 27 0 0 0 Net increase 39 6 6 17 0 11 Net increase -6 -6 0 0 0 0 Net increase 32 0 12 6 3 12 Decrease Increase Compared to last year (FY13), to what extent will aggregate (i.e., total fixed and performance-related) compensation change at your bank this year (FY14?)?
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14Page 54 Section 6: Contacts
    • European Banking Barometer – 1H14 Contacts For more information on how we can help, please contact our team. EMEIA: Robert Cubbage +44 20 7951 2319 rcubbage@uk.ey.com Steven Lewis +44 20 7951 9471 slewis2@uk.ey.com Austria: Friedrich Hief +43 1 21170 1352 friedrich.hief@at.ey.com Belgium: Jean-François Hubin +32 2 774 9266 jean-francois.hubin@be.ey.com France: Luc Valverde +33 1 46 93 63 04 luc.valverde@fr.ey.com Germany: Dirk Müller-Tronnier +49 6196 996 27429 dirk.mueller-tronnier@de.ey.com Italy: Massimo Testa +39 02 7221 2306 massimo.testa@it.ey.com Netherlands: Wouter Smit +31 88 407 1574 wouter.smit@nl.ey.com Nordics: Lars Weigl +46 8 520 590 45 lars.weigl@se.ey.com Poland: Iwona Kozera +48 22 557 7491 iwona.kozera@pl.ey.com Spain: José Carlos Hernández Barrasús +34 91 572 7291 josecarlos.hernandezbarrasus@es.ey.com Switzerland: Philippe Zimmermann +41 58 286 32 19 philippe.zimmermann@ch.ey.com UK: Omar Ali +44 20 7951 1789 oali1@uk.ey.com Page 55
    • EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. About EY’s Global Banking & Capital Markets Center In today’s globally competitive and highly regulated environment, managing risk effectively while satisfying an array of divergent stakeholders is a key goal of banks and securities firms. EY’s Global Banking & Capital Markets Center brings together a worldwide team of professionals to help you succeed – a team with deep technical experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The Center works to anticipate market trends, identify the implications and develop points of view on relevant sector issues. Ultimately it enables us to help you meet your goals and compete more effectively. © 2014 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. EK0289 ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com/ebb