Making sense of Tanzania's fertility: the role of contraceptive use

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Weinberger, M. & E. Coast (2011) "Making sense of Tanzania's fertility: the role of contraceptive use" Presented at 2011 International Conference in Family Planning, Nov 29th - Dec 2nd, Dakar, Senegal

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Making sense of Tanzania's fertility: the role of contraceptive use

  1. 1. Making Sense of Tanzania’s Fertility: The Role of Contraceptive Use Michelle Weinberger and Dr. Ernestina CoastThe issue Findings The future?Contraceptive prevalence (CPR) Bongaarts’ model suggests: Future CPR increases will playhas more than doubled since the No fertility stall in urban areas, but fertility stall in rural areas large role in fertility decline:early 1990s; yet the total fertilityrate (TFR) remains high. Observed v Predicted TFRs Tanzania is mostly rural (+70%), so national trend driven by rural stall.The question Drivers of the rural fertility stall = Knowledge contributionWhat role have changes incontraceptive use and method contraceptive use + increase in % in-union •Rural fertility stall exists, but, can be overcomemix played in determining fertility Low CPR in rural areas + early Rural CPR growth offset  in %trends and differentials in growth in CPR and method mix in-union. Had % in-union not •Focus efforts on rural areas toTanzania? effectiveness not sustained = increased, rural TFR would have close growing urban/rural gap less impact on decreasing TFR. declined. •Government’s effort to revitalize CPR Trends and Average Annual % Change FP will play key role in promotingMethodology 1.9% individual rights, slowedSecondary analysis of: population growth, and improved 18.4% 1.7%• Demographic and Health Surveys development prospects. 16.7% (DHS) (1991/2, 1996, 2004/5)*• Reproductive and Child Health From dissertation in fulfillment of MSc Population and Development Survey (RCHS) (1999)*At time of analysis the 2010 DHS was not yet available Contact: mbweinber@gmail.com

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