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Sse future vw_group5b

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Live case presentation in course Media Management att SSE

Live case presentation in course Media Management att SSE

Published in: Business

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  • 1. Future Virtual Worlds
    STEEP Analysis and Scenario Planning
    Henrik Engervall (20848@student.hhs.se)
    Erik Ingemansson (egjin@kth.se)
    Karl Nielsen (40201@student.hhs.se)
    Teresia Schullström (tsch@kth.se)
  • 2. Executive Summary
    This is a presentation of an external analysis of virtual worlds with the STEEP method and, based on the results of the analysis, four scenario plans with a total of 16 different  scenarios for virtual worlds.In the STEEP Analysis major driving forces and trends that are affecting the Virtual world industry are listed. From the STEEP the most critical uncertainties are each transformed into bipolar axis and put in different combinations where future scenarios are explored and evaluated.
    The evaluation of the scenario plans shows three scenarios that, from our perspective, both more attractive and more likely to occur than the others.
    Forecast –How we think the future will be
    Vision – How we want the future to be
    Scenario – How the future could be
    ”Fad Or Future Second Life And Virtual Worlds“ – Presentation by Robin Teigland
    What is the future for Virtual Worlds in 3-5 years?
  • 3. External factors
    Sociocultural
    Technological
    Economical
    Environmental
    Political
  • 4. What are the trends and driving forces?
    Sociocultural
    Technological
    Economical
    Environmental
    Political
    User interest
    New areas of use
    Gravity of reality +Facebook
    Globalization
  • 5. What are the trends and driving forces?
    Sociocultural
    Technological
    Economical
    Environmental
    Political
    Mobile devices
    Mixed reality
    User generated content
    The Cloud
  • 6. What are the trends and driving forces?
    Sociocultural
    Technological
    Economical
    Environmental
    Political
    Economical cycle/general trend
    Interest rates
    Fundings
    Globalization costs
  • 7. What are the trends and driving forces?
    Sociocultural
    Technological
    Economical
    Environmental
    Political
    Green tech – user side
    Green tech – server side
    Global trends
    Globalization
    Prototyping
  • 8. What are the trends and driving forces?
    Sociocultural
    Technological
    Economical
    Environmental
    Political
    Laws
    Economic regulations
    Control
  • 9. Scenarios of major driving forces 1
    Very controlled VWs
    ”Slippery Slope”
    • No fundings => less innovation (company)
    • 10. More control => less user innovation
    • 11. Less in-world spending
    ”Organized happiness”
    • Users have money to spend but play more seldom
    • 12. Users disappears due to control
    Recession
    Economical boom
    ”Wild West”
    ”Stagnation”
    • No funding
    • 16. Less in-world spending
    • 17. More gaming
    • 18. More user innovation
    Uncontrolled VWs
  • 19. Scenarios of major driving forces 2
    Serious purpose of VWs
    ” Reality Wins”
    • Humans rule!
    • 20. Mixed reality (Augmented reality)
    • 21. New areas of use
    • 22. Education
    • 23. Visualization (virtual reality)
    • 24. Virtual offices
    ”Virtual Superheroes”
    • Avatars rule!
    • 25. Real life issue solving
    • 26. Second Life
    Real life VW integration
    VWs as Escape from real life
    ”Blended Shallowness”
    • Augmented virtuality (Kinnect)
    • 27. Social shopping
    ”ENTERTAINMENT!”
    • MMOGs (WoW)
    • 28. Second Life
    • 29. Niched VWs (Stardoll, Club Penguin)
    • 30. Immersive experiences (Avatar movie)
    Casual/social purpose of VWs
  • 31. Scenarios of major driving forces 3
    Serious purpose of VWs
    ”Virtual Business Society ”
    • Training, corp. Education
    • 32. Recruitment
    • 33. Visualization (virtual reality)
    • 34. Business usage (meetings etc.)
    ”Do It Yourself Anxiety Society”
    • More users
    • 35. More people in education
    • 36. Virtual Entrepreneurship
    • 37. Business usage(to reduce costs)
    Recession
    Economical Boom
    ”Social Spenders Society”
    • More Money to spend
    • 38. Social shopping
    ”Social Slacking Society”
    Casual/social purpose of VWs
  • 41. Scenarios of major driving forces 4
    Advanced usage of technology
    ”A better world”
    • Augmented Reality
    • 42. Virtual mix
    • 43. Complex mobile devices
    • 44. Shopping games
    • 45. Passive presence
    ”The Matrix”
    • Cyber chairs
    • 46. Stationary devices
    • 47. Augmented Virtuality
    • 48. Screen technology
    Back 2 Basic (take your time)
    Need 4 Speed
    ”The presence”
    • Less complex devices
    • 49. Social use
    • 50. Social communities
    • 51. Interactive city (IC YOU)
    ”Same Same City”
    • Same same
    Less advanced usage of technology
  • 52. Conclusion
  • 53. Thank you for listening!
    /clap
    /whistle
  • 54. Sources
    Interviews
    Jeff Lowe
    Chief Product Officer, Reaction Grid
    EilifTrondsen
    Program and Research Director, Strategic Business Insights
    Internet
    http://www.articleclick.com/Article/Top-5-Server-Farms-in-Terms-of-Size/1588825
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/30/cloud-computing-carbon-emissions
    http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/make-it-green-cloud-computing/
    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/01/28/tech/cnettechnews/main6151438.shtml
    http://www.adobe.com/resources/elearning/pdfs/serious_games_wp.pdf
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/fashion/12dating.html
    http://www.spelbranschen.se/index.php?option=com.content&view=article&id=808:dataspelsfoersaeljningen-trotsar-konjunkturenoch-oevertraeffar-prognosen&catid=1:senaste&Itemid=12
    http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/valuegamer_final1.pdf
    Reports
    “Virtual worlds — past, present, and future: New directions in social computing” - Paul R. Messinger et. al.
    “The Condition of Education 2010” - National Center for Education Statistics
    Presentations
    ”Fad Or Future Second Life And Virtual Worlds“ – Robin Teigland