Future Virtual Worlds<br />STEEP Analysis and Scenario Planning<br />Henrik Engervall (20848@student.hhs.se)<br />Erik Ing...
Executive Summary<br />This is a presentation of an external analysis of virtual worlds with the STEEP method and, based o...
External factors<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Political<br />
What are the trends and driving forces?<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Poli...
What are the trends and driving forces?<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Poli...
What are the trends and driving forces?<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Poli...
What are the trends and driving forces?<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Poli...
What are the trends and driving forces?<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Poli...
Scenarios of major driving forces 1<br />Very controlled VWs<br />”Slippery Slope”<br /><ul><li>No fundings => less innova...
 More control => less user innovation
Less in-world spending</li></ul>”Organized happiness”<br /><ul><li>Users have money to spend but play more seldom
Users disappears due to control</li></ul>Recession<br />Economical boom<br />”Wild West”<br /><ul><li>Security problem
Vandalism
Risk of inflation/bubble
Innovation</li></ul>”Stagnation”<br /><ul><li>No funding
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Sse future vw_group5b

1,090 views

Published on

Live case presentation in course Media Management att SSE

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,090
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
32
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
16
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Sse future vw_group5b

  1. 1. Future Virtual Worlds<br />STEEP Analysis and Scenario Planning<br />Henrik Engervall (20848@student.hhs.se)<br />Erik Ingemansson (egjin@kth.se)<br />Karl Nielsen (40201@student.hhs.se)<br />Teresia Schullström (tsch@kth.se)<br />
  2. 2. Executive Summary<br />This is a presentation of an external analysis of virtual worlds with the STEEP method and, based on the results of the analysis, four scenario plans with a total of 16 different  scenarios for virtual worlds.In the STEEP Analysis major driving forces and trends that are affecting the Virtual world industry are listed. From the STEEP the most critical uncertainties are each transformed into bipolar axis and put in different combinations where future scenarios are explored and evaluated.<br />The evaluation of the scenario plans shows three scenarios that, from our perspective, both more attractive and more likely to occur than the others.<br />Forecast –How we think the future will be<br />Vision – How we want the future to be<br />Scenario – How the future could be<br />”Fad Or Future Second Life And Virtual Worlds“ – Presentation by Robin Teigland<br />What is the future for Virtual Worlds in 3-5 years?<br />
  3. 3. External factors<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Political<br />
  4. 4. What are the trends and driving forces?<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Political<br />User interest<br />New areas of use<br />Gravity of reality +Facebook<br />Globalization<br />
  5. 5. What are the trends and driving forces?<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Political<br />Mobile devices<br />Mixed reality<br />User generated content<br />The Cloud <br />
  6. 6. What are the trends and driving forces?<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Political<br />Economical cycle/general trend<br />Interest rates<br />Fundings<br />Globalization costs<br />
  7. 7. What are the trends and driving forces?<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Political<br />Green tech – user side<br />Green tech – server side<br />Global trends<br />Globalization<br />Prototyping<br />
  8. 8. What are the trends and driving forces?<br />Sociocultural<br />Technological<br />Economical<br />Environmental<br />Political<br />Laws<br />Economic regulations<br />Control<br />
  9. 9. Scenarios of major driving forces 1<br />Very controlled VWs<br />”Slippery Slope”<br /><ul><li>No fundings => less innovation (company)
  10. 10. More control => less user innovation
  11. 11. Less in-world spending</li></ul>”Organized happiness”<br /><ul><li>Users have money to spend but play more seldom
  12. 12. Users disappears due to control</li></ul>Recession<br />Economical boom<br />”Wild West”<br /><ul><li>Security problem
  13. 13. Vandalism
  14. 14. Risk of inflation/bubble
  15. 15. Innovation</li></ul>”Stagnation”<br /><ul><li>No funding
  16. 16. Less in-world spending
  17. 17. More gaming
  18. 18. More user innovation</li></ul>Uncontrolled VWs<br />
  19. 19. Scenarios of major driving forces 2<br />Serious purpose of VWs<br />” Reality Wins”<br /><ul><li>Humans rule!
  20. 20. Mixed reality (Augmented reality)
  21. 21. New areas of use
  22. 22. Education
  23. 23. Visualization (virtual reality)
  24. 24. Virtual offices</li></ul>”Virtual Superheroes”<br /><ul><li>Avatars rule!
  25. 25. Real life issue solving
  26. 26. Second Life</li></ul>Real life VW integration<br />VWs as Escape from real life<br />”Blended Shallowness”<br /><ul><li>Augmented virtuality (Kinnect)
  27. 27. Social shopping</li></ul>”ENTERTAINMENT!”<br /><ul><li>MMOGs (WoW)
  28. 28. Second Life
  29. 29. Niched VWs (Stardoll, Club Penguin)
  30. 30. Immersive experiences (Avatar movie)</li></ul>Casual/social purpose of VWs<br />
  31. 31. Scenarios of major driving forces 3<br />Serious purpose of VWs<br />”Virtual Business Society ”<br /><ul><li>Training, corp. Education
  32. 32. Recruitment
  33. 33. Visualization (virtual reality)
  34. 34. Business usage (meetings etc.)</li></ul>”Do It Yourself Anxiety Society”<br /><ul><li>More users
  35. 35. More people in education
  36. 36. Virtual Entrepreneurship
  37. 37. Business usage(to reduce costs)</li></ul>Recession<br />Economical Boom<br />”Social Spenders Society”<br /><ul><li>More Money to spend
  38. 38. Social shopping</li></ul>”Social Slacking Society”<br /><ul><li>More gaming
  39. 39. MMOGs rule!
  40. 40. Dating</li></ul>Casual/social purpose of VWs<br />
  41. 41. Scenarios of major driving forces 4<br />Advanced usage of technology<br />”A better world”<br /><ul><li>Augmented Reality
  42. 42. Virtual mix
  43. 43. Complex mobile devices
  44. 44. Shopping games
  45. 45. Passive presence</li></ul>”The Matrix”<br /><ul><li>Cyber chairs
  46. 46. Stationary devices
  47. 47. Augmented Virtuality
  48. 48. Screen technology</li></ul>Back 2 Basic (take your time)<br />Need 4 Speed<br />”The presence”<br /><ul><li>Less complex devices
  49. 49. Social use
  50. 50. Social communities
  51. 51. Interactive city (IC YOU)</li></ul>”Same Same City”<br /><ul><li>Same same</li></ul>Less advanced usage of technology<br />
  52. 52. Conclusion<br />
  53. 53. Thank you for listening!<br />/clap<br />/whistle<br />
  54. 54. Sources<br />Interviews<br />Jeff Lowe<br /> Chief Product Officer, Reaction Grid<br />EilifTrondsen<br /> Program and Research Director, Strategic Business Insights<br />Internet<br />http://www.articleclick.com/Article/Top-5-Server-Farms-in-Terms-of-Size/1588825<br />http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/30/cloud-computing-carbon-emissions<br />http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/make-it-green-cloud-computing/<br />http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/01/28/tech/cnettechnews/main6151438.shtml<br />http://www.adobe.com/resources/elearning/pdfs/serious_games_wp.pdf<br />http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/fashion/12dating.html<br />http://www.spelbranschen.se/index.php?option=com.content&view=article&id=808:dataspelsfoersaeljningen-trotsar-konjunkturenoch-oevertraeffar-prognosen&catid=1:senaste&Itemid=12<br />http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/valuegamer_final1.pdf<br />Reports<br />“Virtual worlds — past, present, and future: New directions in social computing” - Paul R. Messinger et. al. <br />“The Condition of Education 2010” - National Center for Education Statistics<br />Presentations<br />”Fad Or Future Second Life And Virtual Worlds“ – Robin Teigland<br />

×