Economics of Bribery by @EricPesik

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Updated again based on my presentation on the 18th of March 2014 at the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore. Previously presented at the Compliance Day Event for the Singapore Compliance Workgroup on 27-November 2013; and at the PrimeTime Personal Power Lunch and the CFO Asia Congress. We return to the same three economic questions: Who bribes? How much do they pay? And what value do they get? How can we use the answers to discourage bribery? And while we will never eliminate the motivation for bribery, we may reach the point where bribery is no longer business as usual.

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Economics of Bribery by @EricPesik

  1. 1. Secrets and corruption by Adán Sánchez de Pedro http://www.flickr.com/photos/aesedepece/8176804808/ Economics of Bribery Eric Roring Pesik
  2. 2. http://www.amcham.org.sg/
  3. 3. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act Dollar by Images of Money http://www.flickr.com/photos/59937401@N07/6022835400/
  4. 4. Student Sleeping by D. Sharon Pruitt http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinksherbet/6961676525/ FCPA Training
  5. 5. When the big people get in trouble, the little people get ethics training Former Compliance Officer RAND Symposium, Culture, Compliance and the C-Suite http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF316.html
  6. 6. American Cash - public domain image. Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:American_Cash.JPG Why do we bribe?
  7. 7. Neoclassical Microeconomics Model Abandoned Art School 24 by Tiffany Bailey http://www.flickr.com/photos/xshamethestrongx/6342359807/
  8. 8. Money on a Hook by Tax Credits http://www.flickr.com/photos/76657755@N04/7214510228/ Economics is the Study of Incentives
  9. 9. Economics by Mark Wainwright http://www.flickr.com/photos/m-a-r-k/3528237255/ People are Rational Utility-Maximizers
  10. 10. It’s only when the certainty of getting caught and punished exceeds the potential rewards that corruption will be stamped out. Peter Coleman Partner, Forensic, PT. Deloitte Konsultan Indonesia petcoleman@deloitte.com | www.deloitte.com
  11. 11. Money Scales by Images Money http://www.flickr.com/photos/59937401@N07/5857910508/ Risk Versus Reward
  12. 12. Risk Versus Reward
  13. 13. What are the risks?
  14. 14. Top 10 FCPA Fines of All Time http://www.fcpablog.com/blog/2014/1/10/alcoa-lands-5th-on-our-top-ten-list.html Image: Arms Folder by D Planet http://www.flickr.com/photos/dplanet/94441584/ $153 Million $185 Million $219 Million $338 Million $365 Million $384 Million $395 Million $400 Million $579 Million $800 Million Weatherford Intl (Swiss) Daimler AG (Germany) JGC Corporation (Japan) Technip S.A. (France) Snamprogetti/ENI (Holland/Italy) Alcoa (USA) Total S.A. (France) BAE (UK) KBR/Halliburton (USA) Siemens (Germany)
  15. 15. 11% 11% of companies say “firms like theirs” bribe Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012) Image: Don by D Planet http://www.flickr.com/photos/dplanet/94442620/
  16. 16. 20% Corruption costs the equivalent of a 20% tax Six Questions on the Cost of Corruption With World Bank Institute Global Governance Director Daniel Kaufmann http://go.worldbank.org/KQH743GKF1 Image: We Want You by D Planet http://www.flickr.com/photos/dplanet/94442625/
  17. 17. 40% 40% of companies claim to have lost business to competitors who won contracts unethically Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012) Image: Adjust Tie by Dplanet http://www.flickr.com/photos/dplanet/94441582/
  18. 18. Image: Don by D Planet http://www.flickr.com/photos/dplanet/94442620/ 64% see bribery and corruption as having a negative impact on business Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) Combating bribery in the SME sector http://www.accaglobal.com/en/research-insights/small-business-resource/combating-bribery.html 64%
  19. 19. Who is making money?
  20. 20. The World Bank estimates that the equivalent of $1 trillion is offered in bribes every year. The Real Cost of Bribery Carmen Nobel, Harvard Business School Working Knowledge.
  21. 21. What are the rewards?
  22. 22. Is bribery worth it?
  23. 23. Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-sg/results.aspx?qu=MP900185047 Is it worth the risk of bribing and getting caught?
  24. 24. Image: Adjust Tie by D Planet http://www.flickr.com/photos/dplanet/94441582/ Is it worth the benefit of bribing and getting away with it
  25. 25. Greed by Liz West http://www.flickr.com/photos/53133240@N00/2207307656/ Does Crime Pay?
  26. 26. What is the ROI of bribery?
  27. 27. How much do they pay? Who bribes? What value do they get? 2 1 3
  28. 28. http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=handcuffs&ex=2#ai:MP900402864| Most bribery statistics come from firms that bribe and got caught
  29. 29. Who bribed and got away with it? http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900443285&ex=1
  30. 30. Theatrical poster for Fight Club, Copyright © 1999 by 20th Century Fox. All Rights Reserved. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fight_Club_poster.jpg This image is of a poster, and the copyright for it is owned by either the publisher or the creator of the work depicted.
  31. 31. You do not talk about fight club
  32. 32. Image: St Munchins Contract Signing 60 by St Munchin's College http://www.flickr.com/photos/stmunchins/6864640994/ You do not talk about bribery
  33. 33. Money and Magnifying Glass by Images of Money http://www.flickr.com/photos/59937401@N07/5858011914/ Follow the Money
  34. 34. How much do they pay? Who bribes? What value do they get? 2 1 3
  35. 35. Case Study Forensic Accounting http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900385334
  36. 36. 1,388 fraud cases 100 countries 6 continents 2 year period ACFE Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse (2012)
  37. 37. http://office.microsoft.com/en-sg/images/results.aspx?qu=mP900442346 Companies don’t pay bribes. People pay bribes.
  38. 38. Pressure
  39. 39. 4.1% 4.7% 4.8% 5.3% 6.5% 6.5% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 12.6% 14.8% 14.8% 18.2% 19.2% 31.5% 35.6% Instability in Life Circumstances Excessive Pressure from Family or Peers Complained About Lack of Authority Past Legal Problems Refusal to Take Vacations Excessive Pressure from Organization Complained About Inadequate Pay Past Employment Related Problems Addiction Problems Irritable, Suspicious, Defensive Attitude Divorce or Family Problems Wheeler-Dealer Attitude Control Issues, Unwilling to Share Duties Unusually Close with Vendor or Customer Financial Difficulties Living Beyond Means ACFE Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse (2012) Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/reults.aspx?qu=MP900431223
  40. 40. Living Beyond Means Financial Difficulties Control Issues, Unwillingness to Share Duties Unusually Close with Vendor/Customer Wheeler-Dealer Attitude Asset Misappropriation Corruption Financial Statement Fraud ACFE Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse (2012) Top 5 Behavioural Red-Flags
  41. 41. Never a 1:1 relationship
  42. 42. 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 2.0% 3.7% 4.2% 5.7% 5.9% 6.9% 11.9% 12.8% 17.4% 22.0% Legal Internal Audit Research and Development Marketing/Public Relations Human Resources Board of Directors Manufacturing and Production Information Technology Finance Warehousing/Inventory Purchasing Other Customer Service Executive/Upper Management Sales Operations Accounting ACFE Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse (2012) Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900422882
  43. 43. Gender of Perpetrators Male 65% Female 35% ACFE Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse (2012)
  44. 44. Female 52% 45% 29% 25% 18% 18% 16% 48% 55% 71% 75% 82% 82% Male 84% Canada United States Oceanina Central & S.America Africa Asia Europe Gender of Perpetrators ACFE Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse (2012)
  45. 45. Risk Factor Based on Tenure ACFE Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse (2012) - Scaled Risk Factor (Frequency * Amount) 1.0 7.4 9.4 10.0 Less than 1 year 1 to 5 years 6 to 10 years More than 10 years
  46. 46. Risk Factor Based on Education Level ACFE Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse (2012) - Scaled Risk Factor (Frequency * Amount) 1.0 3.3 4.1 10.0 7.2 Other High School or Less Some College College Degree Postgrad Degree
  47. 47. Who bribes?
  48. 48. Image: Portrait of a businesswoman by Victor1558 http://www.flickr.com/photos/76029035@N02/6829334723/ *Except in Canada
  49. 49. Reality Check
  50. 50. 96.7% What is the percentage of men prosecuted by US Dept of Justice since January 2008?
  51. 51. 58 What is the average age of persons currently in prison for FCPA violations?
  52. 52. Who bribes?
  53. 53. How much do they pay? Who bribes? What value do they get? 2 1 3
  54. 54. Case Study Forensic Accounting http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900385334
  55. 55. 166 historical bribery incidents 107 publically listed firms 20 stock markets 52 countries 36 year time period Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)
  56. 56. Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012) Image: http://office.microsoft.com us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP90044 Median Bribe Amount
  57. 57. $1.06 M $11.43 M Low Rank Officials High Rank Officials Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900422532
  58. 58. $16.77 M $13.77 M $7.63 M $5.32 M $5.00 M $0.50 M $0.19 M Head of State Member of Parliament Government Minister Military Officer Judge Head of Agency Governor/Mayor Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012) Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900448685
  59. 59. Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012) Image: http://www.flickr.com/photos/34728058@N08/4818131438/ Bribe as percentage of project awarded 1.9%
  60. 60. 4.42%1.22% Bribe % Low Rank Official Bribe % High Rank Official Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012) Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900401019
  61. 61. How much do they pay? Who bribes? What value do they get? 2 1 3
  62. 62. Image: http://www.fanpop.com/clubs/marlon-brando/images/9109847/title/godfather-fanart Don’t write if you can talk, don’t talk of you can nod your head, don’t nod your head if you don’t have to. The Family Corleone Prequel to Mario Puzo's The Godfather “
  63. 63. Case Study: Markets Analysis http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900385334
  64. 64. 645 UK firms $3.768B Average Market Cap $429M Median Market Cap Event Date: March 25, 2009 Zeume, Stefan, Bribes and Firm Value - Evidence from Anti-Bribery Regulation (August 18, 2013).
  65. 65. UK Bribery Act 2010 Exogenous shock: Newspapers did not discuss vote Previous legislation was early 19th & 20th century All previous attempts had failed Included unexpectedly severe fines Zeume, Stefan, Bribes and Firm Value - Evidence from Anti-Bribery Regulation (August 18, 2013).Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900422830
  66. 66. -0.06% -0.87% -0.05% CAR [-20;-1] CAR[0;1] CAR[2;20] March 25, 2009 $2.43 Trillion Loss in Market CapZeume, Stefan, Bribes and Firm Value - Evidence from Anti-Bribery Regulation (August 18, 2013).
  67. 67. Cumulative Abnormal Returns
  68. 68. -0.06% -0.87% -0.05% CAR [-20;-1] CAR[0;1] CAR[2;20] March 25, 2009 $2.43 Trillion Loss in Market CapZeume, Stefan, Bribes and Firm Value - Evidence from Anti-Bribery Regulation (August 18, 2013).
  69. 69. 0.51% more negative CAR [0;1] $2.19M more negative loss for median-size firm -0.87% -0.61% -1.12% -0.51% Baseline Low Foreign Corruption Exposure High Foreign CorruptionExposure Zeume, Stefan, Bribes and Firm Value - Evidence from Anti-Bribery Regulation (August 18, 2013).
  70. 70. 0.37% more negative CAR [0;1] $1.58M more negative loss for median-size firm -0.87% -0.92% -0.55% -0.37% Baseline No Cross-Listing US Cross-Listing Zeume, Stefan, Bribes and Firm Value - Evidence from Anti-Bribery Regulation (August 18, 2013).
  71. 71. Efficient Markets Theory
  72. 72. Removing the ability to bribe reduces shareholder value by US $2.19M for median firm
  73. 73. But what about individual firms and individual bribes...
  74. 74. Case Study Historical Analysis http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900385334
  75. 75. Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-sg/results.aspx?qu=MP900185047 Use the records of firms that bribe and got caught
  76. 76. Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900414039 Don’t look at the date of revelation of the bribery
  77. 77. Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900442939 Look back to when the contract was awarded
  78. 78. Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-sg/results.aspx?qu=MP900430507 Look at when bribing and getting away with it
  79. 79. Example: In 1992, Elf Aquitaine paid $46M in bribes to acquire German oil refinery assets At the time the deal was originally announced, Elf earned $327M cumulative abnormal returns or a 7 x return (The bribe was later discovered later and numerous executives received jail terms in 2002-2003) Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)
  80. 80. 166 actual bribery incidents 107 publically listed firms 20 stock markets 52 countries 36 year time period Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)
  81. 81. For the 166 bribes studied, the average return was 10.5 x US Dollar Bill Notes: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/USDnotes.png US Quarter http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2006_Quarter_Proof.png Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)
  82. 82. 10.5 X 5.5 X All Bribes High-Rank Politicians CAR [-1,+1] relative to initial contract announcements, divided by amount of the bribe. Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)
  83. 83. The more you pay, the less value you get
  84. 84. But that’s not the end of the story...
  85. 85. http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900443251&ex=1 Do firms that bribe perform better?
  86. 86. http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=reports&ex=1#ai:MP900422411|mt:2| Research 3 years before and 3 years after
  87. 87. 2.70% 5.10% 3.20% 0.90% 2.30% 1.40% Year -3 Year -2 Year -1 Year 0 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Sales Growth Companies that bribe have greater sales growth compared to control firms Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)
  88. 88. -1.20% -1.50% -0.90% -0.70% -0.70% -0.60% -0.30% Year -3 Year -2 Year -1 Year 0 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 ROA Companies that bribe have poorer return on assets (ROA = EBIT divided by total assets) Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)
  89. 89. -12.10% -11.80% -9.70% -14.20% -10.60% -6.60% -2.40% Year -3 Year -2 Year -1 Year 0 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Asset Turnover Companies that bribe have poorer asset turnover (sales revenue divided by total assets) Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)
  90. 90. -0.90% -0.90% -0.50% -0.40% -0.80% 0.00% -0.30% Year -3 Year -2 Year -1 Year 0 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Operating Profit Margin Companies that bribe have poorer operating profit margin compared to control firms (operating profit divided by sales revenue).Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)
  91. 91. 0.00% -0.50% -0.10% -0.20% -0.40% -1.20% -0.60% Year -3 Year -2 Year -1 Year 0 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Net Profit Margin Companies that bribe have poorer net profit margin (net income divided by sales revenue) Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)
  92. 92. Companies that bribe have poorer cumulative abnormal returns (difference between the sum of the monthly returns for bribing firms versus control firms) -2.90% 0.50% 1.50% 1.60% 0.30% -4.60% -6.80% Year -3 Year -2 Year -1 Year 0 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Cumulative Abnormal Returns Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide (March 30, 2012)
  93. 93. Image: http://office.microsoft.com/en-sg/results.aspx?qu=MP900185047 Crime does not pay
  94. 94. Bribe-paying firms underperform the market
  95. 95. Why?
  96. 96. Culture of Corruption Noncompliance Spillover Compromised Internal Controls Short Term Focus Agency Problem Prisoner’s Dilemma
  97. 97. Who is making money?
  98. 98. It’s not the companies paying bribes Parlament by Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya http://www.flickr.com/photos/convergenciademocratica/6197445493/
  99. 99. American Cash This image is in the public domain. Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:American_Cash.JPG Why do we bribe?
  100. 100. Risk Versus Reward
  101. 101. The big people often need training more than the little people do. Symposium Participant RAND Symposium Culture, Compliance and the C-Suite http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF316.html
  102. 102. Neoclassical Microeconomics Model Abandoned Art School 24 by Tiffany Bailey http://www.flickr.com/photos/xshamethestrongx/6342359807/
  103. 103. Money Scales by Images Money http://www.flickr.com/photos/59937401@N07/5857910508/ Risk Versus Reward
  104. 104. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Wealth_of_Nations_title.jpg This image is in the public domain because its copyright has expired. Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand”
  105. 105. Takeaway point
  106. 106. Maximizing individual profit can benefit society as a whole without the need for government intervention Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_hand
  107. 107. Corruption is Unsustainable Road Sign by fdecomite http://www.flickr.com/photos/fdecomite/388303700/
  108. 108. Used with permission from Microsoft http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/results.aspx?qu=MP900442989&ex=1 Ethics is Sustainable
  109. 109. Acknowledgements
  110. 110. Acknowledgements How Much do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide Cheung, Stephen Yan-Leung, Rau, Raghavendra and Stouraitis, Aris, (March 30, 2012). http://ssrn.com/abstract=1772246 Bribes and Firm Value Evidence from Anti-Bribery Regulation Zeume, Stefan, (August 18, 2013). http://ssrn.com/abstract=2179437 Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (2012) http://www.acfe.com/rttn.aspx Flickr Creative Commons Images from Flickr Creative Commons are used under Creative Commons license. http://www.flickr.com/creativecommons/ Microsoft Office Online Images from Microsoft Office Online are used with permission from Microsoft; no rights to further license or distribute the media elements. http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/images/ Other Sources Corporate logos are property of their respective companies. All other sources and images are acknowledged where they appear.
  111. 111. About the Author Eric Pesik Eric Pesik is a frequent speaker on legal and compliance matters and has taught law school and business school in the USA and Singapore. Background Mr. Pesik is currently the Associate General Counsel and Compliance Officer for Seagate Singapore International Headquarters Pte Ltd. He has been a lawyer since 1997 and is a member of the State Bar of California, USA. He is also admitted to the US Court of International Trade in New York and the US Supreme Court in Washington, DC. Disclaimer This work represents the opinions of the author alone, and is not the opinion his employer. Other Presentations Many of Mr. Pesik’s presentations are available on SlideShare at: http://www.slideshare.net/ericpesik Creative Commons Attribution License You are free to share, copy, distribute, and transmit this work; to remix or adapt this work; and to make commercial use of this work, under the condition that you must attribute this work to me (but not in any way that suggests that I endorse you or your use of this work). Each slide contains source attributions and URL; before reusing, you must obtain the original images from the original sources, and you must comply with any applicable license restrictions imposed by the original source. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
  112. 112. Secrets and corruption by Adán Sánchez de Pedro http://www.flickr.com/photos/aesedepece/8176804808/ Economics of Bribery

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