Hiring in an Unfair Game:              The Moneyball of Recruiting                             June 20, 2012Paul Basile, C...
Introductions
POLL 1: who are we?•    In-house talent acquisition specialist•    Talent management specialist•    HR generalist•    Prof...
POLL 2: Moneyball and me•    I know the Moneyball story very well•    I know Moneyball, but what’s the link to recruitment...
Why Moneyball?
Why Moneyball?
The Moneyball story
The Lessons of Moneyball
The Lessons of Moneyball
The Lessons of Moneyball
What’s the Moneyball of Recruiting?1.    Identify the problem to solve2.    Find the solution to that problem3.    Act on ...
1. What’s the problem?What we want       What we can afford
The difference top performers make  Bottom 15% of                         Top 15%   performers                        of p...
How do we recruit now?
How do we recruit now?
How do we recruit now?
Our results
Our results
Our results
Our results
So, what’s going on?Selection approach                      False         True                     positives    positives ...
What we getSelection approach                      False          True                     positives     positives        ...
What we want                                     TrueSelection approach                        False                      ...
2. The solution: predict performanceCorrelation coefficient              0.7              0.6              0.5            ...
Weak predictorsCorrelation coefficient              0.7              0.6              0.5              0.4              0....
Medium predictorsCorrelation coefficient              0.7              0.6              0.5                           Know...
Strong predictorsCorrelation coefficient              0.7          Cognitive ability tests with behavioral                ...
Strong predictorsCorrelation coefficient              0.7          Cognitive ability tests with behavioral                ...
Predictive selection•  Cognitive ability•  Behavior•  PreferencesDifferentiators                 Employee performance
Predictive selection•  Cognitive ability                Baselines•  Behavior•  Preferences                      •  Skills ...
Example: Project Oxygen
Example: Project Oxygen               Technical ability the                 least important                 success factor
3. Act: Implement the solution
Measure the job demands
Measure candidate skills & knowledge
Measure candidate cognitive ability
Measure candidate cognitive ability
Measure candidate behaviors
Measure candidate behaviors
Measure candidate preferences
Bring the data togetherJob
Bring the data togetherJob            Candidates
Bring the data togetherJob            Candidates                         Rank & shortlist
Bring the data togetherJob                                         Hire            Candidates                         Rank...
Timing
TimingApplication      Interviews /          Psychometricforms /          other                 assessmentsrésumés        ...
TimingApplication        Interviews /           Psychometricforms /            other                  assessmentsrésumés  ...
4. Eliminate all else
What to eliminate
But is it practical?Candidate time
But is it practical?Candidate time< 1h 30 mins
But is it practical?Candidate time       Employer time< 1h 30 mins
But is it practical?Candidate time       Employer time< 1h 30 mins         < 30 minutes
But is it practical?Candidate time       Employer time   Data processing time< 1h 30 mins         < 30 minutes
But is it practical?Candidate time       Employer time   Data processing time< 1h 30 mins         < 30 minutes       < 1 m...
But is it practical?Candidate time             Employer time        Data processing time< 1h 30 mins               < 30 mi...
But is it practical?Candidate time            Employer time            Data processing time< 1h 30 mins              < 30 ...
Results
Results
Results
Results
Recap: Winning an Unfair Game1.  Identify the problem to solve:      - Get performance and get it reliably and affordably,...
Recap: Winning an Unfair Game1.  Identify the problem to solve:      - Get performance and get it reliably and affordably,...
Recap: Winning an Unfair Game1.  Identify the problem to solve:      - Get performance and get it reliably and affordably,...
Recap: Winning an Unfair Game1.  Identify the problem to solve:      - Get performance and get it reliably and affordably,...
Thank you       Paul Basilepaul.basile@matchpointcareers.com
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Hiring in an Unfair Game: The Moneyball of Recruiting

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Hiring in an Unfair Game: The Moneyball of Recruiting

  1. 1. Hiring in an Unfair Game: The Moneyball of Recruiting June 20, 2012Paul Basile, CEO Matchpoint Careers, Incpaul.basile@matchpointcareers.com
  2. 2. Introductions
  3. 3. POLL 1: who are we?•  In-house talent acquisition specialist•  Talent management specialist•  HR generalist•  Professional recruiter•  None of the above
  4. 4. POLL 2: Moneyball and me•  I know the Moneyball story very well•  I know Moneyball, but what’s the link to recruitment?•  I have heard, vaguely, of Moneyball•  I hate baseball•  I know who Brad Pitt is…
  5. 5. Why Moneyball?
  6. 6. Why Moneyball?
  7. 7. The Moneyball story
  8. 8. The Lessons of Moneyball
  9. 9. The Lessons of Moneyball
  10. 10. The Lessons of Moneyball
  11. 11. What’s the Moneyball of Recruiting?1.  Identify the problem to solve2.  Find the solution to that problem3.  Act on what we know: implement the solution4.  Eliminate everything else
  12. 12. 1. What’s the problem?What we want What we can afford
  13. 13. The difference top performers make Bottom 15% of Top 15% performers of performers $48,000 $80,000 $112,000 ↑↓ 40+%
  14. 14. How do we recruit now?
  15. 15. How do we recruit now?
  16. 16. How do we recruit now?
  17. 17. Our results
  18. 18. Our results
  19. 19. Our results
  20. 20. Our results
  21. 21. So, what’s going on?Selection approach False True positives positives True False negatives negatives Job performance
  22. 22. What we getSelection approach False True positives positives True negatives False negatives Job performance
  23. 23. What we want TrueSelection approach False positives positives True False negatives negatives Job performance
  24. 24. 2. The solution: predict performanceCorrelation coefficient 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1
  25. 25. Weak predictorsCorrelation coefficient 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Unstructured interviews (0.18) Years of job experience (0.18) Weakly 0.1predictive Years of education (0.10) 0 Graphology (0.02) -0.1 Age (-0.1)
  26. 26. Medium predictorsCorrelation coefficient 0.7 0.6 0.5 Knowledge of the job (0.48) 0.4 Personality tests (0.40)Somewhat References (0.36) 0.3predictive 0.2 Unstructured interviews (0.18) Years of job experience (0.18) Weakly 0.1predictive Years of education (0.10) 0 Graphology (0.02) -0.1 Age (-0.1)
  27. 27. Strong predictorsCorrelation coefficient 0.7 Cognitive ability tests with behavioral assessment (0.67) 0.6 Cognitive ability tests (0.51)Powerfully 0.5 Structured interviews (0.51)predictive Knowledge of the job (0.48) 0.4 Personality tests (0.40)Somewhat References (0.36) 0.3predictive 0.2 Unstructured interviews (0.18) Years of job experience (0.18) Weakly 0.1predictive Years of education (0.10) 0 Graphology (0.02) -0.1 Age (-0.1)
  28. 28. Strong predictorsCorrelation coefficient 0.7 Cognitive ability tests with behavioral assessment (0.67) 0.6 Cognitive ability tests (0.51)Powerfully 0.5 Structured interviews (0.51)predictive Knowledge of the job (0.48) 0.4 Personality tests (0.40)Somewhat References (0.36) 0.3predictive 0.2 Unstructured interviews (0.18) Years of job experience (0.18) Weakly 0.1predictive Years of education (0.10) 0 Graphology (0.02) Adapted from I. Robinson and M. Smith, Personnel Selection (2001) British -0.1 Age (-0.1) Psychological Society
  29. 29. Predictive selection•  Cognitive ability•  Behavior•  PreferencesDifferentiators Employee performance
  30. 30. Predictive selection•  Cognitive ability Baselines•  Behavior•  Preferences •  Skills •  KnowledgeDifferentiators Employee performance
  31. 31. Example: Project Oxygen
  32. 32. Example: Project Oxygen Technical ability the least important success factor
  33. 33. 3. Act: Implement the solution
  34. 34. Measure the job demands
  35. 35. Measure candidate skills & knowledge
  36. 36. Measure candidate cognitive ability
  37. 37. Measure candidate cognitive ability
  38. 38. Measure candidate behaviors
  39. 39. Measure candidate behaviors
  40. 40. Measure candidate preferences
  41. 41. Bring the data togetherJob
  42. 42. Bring the data togetherJob Candidates
  43. 43. Bring the data togetherJob Candidates Rank & shortlist
  44. 44. Bring the data togetherJob Hire Candidates Rank & shortlist
  45. 45. Timing
  46. 46. TimingApplication Interviews / Psychometricforms / other assessmentsrésumés assessments Traditio nal rec ruitmen t pipeli ne
  47. 47. TimingApplication Interviews / Psychometricforms / other assessmentsrésumés assessments Traditio nal rec ruitmen t pipeli ne ine itme nt pipel ting recru anc e-predic PerformPsychometric Self-selection, Interviews /assessments employer- other specific assessments assessments
  48. 48. 4. Eliminate all else
  49. 49. What to eliminate
  50. 50. But is it practical?Candidate time
  51. 51. But is it practical?Candidate time< 1h 30 mins
  52. 52. But is it practical?Candidate time Employer time< 1h 30 mins
  53. 53. But is it practical?Candidate time Employer time< 1h 30 mins < 30 minutes
  54. 54. But is it practical?Candidate time Employer time Data processing time< 1h 30 mins < 30 minutes
  55. 55. But is it practical?Candidate time Employer time Data processing time< 1h 30 mins < 30 minutes < 1 minute
  56. 56. But is it practical?Candidate time Employer time Data processing time< 1h 30 mins < 30 minutes < 1 minute Current cost-per-shortlist $$$
  57. 57. But is it practical?Candidate time Employer time Data processing time< 1h 30 mins < 30 minutes < 1 minute Future cost-per-shortlist $$$
  58. 58. Results
  59. 59. Results
  60. 60. Results
  61. 61. Results
  62. 62. Recap: Winning an Unfair Game1.  Identify the problem to solve: - Get performance and get it reliably and affordably, while competing with richer, bigger players.
  63. 63. Recap: Winning an Unfair Game1.  Identify the problem to solve: - Get performance and get it reliably and affordably, while competing with richer, bigger players.2.  Find the solution to that problem - Predict performance; we know how to do it; the best companies do it – but don’t try to compete on their terms
  64. 64. Recap: Winning an Unfair Game1.  Identify the problem to solve: - Get performance and get it reliably and affordably, while competing with richer, bigger players.2.  Find the solution to that problem - Predict performance; we know how to do it; the best companies do it – but don’t try to compete on their terms3.  Act on what we know: implement the solution - Assess people, assess jobs; use technology to do this quicker and cheaper than traditional means
  65. 65. Recap: Winning an Unfair Game1.  Identify the problem to solve: - Get performance and get it reliably and affordably, while competing with richer, bigger players.2.  Find the solution to that problem - Predict performance; we know how to do it; the best companies do it – but don’t try to compete on their terms3.  Act on what we know: implement the solution - Assess people, assess jobs; use technology to do this quicker and cheaper than traditional means4.  Eliminate everything else - This is the hardest part; not done, you will lose an unfair game
  66. 66. Thank you Paul Basilepaul.basile@matchpointcareers.com
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