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Satesh Workshop Southasia Journalists 27 Aug09

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Science and impacts of climate change

Science and impacts of climate change

Published in: Technology, News & Politics

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  • 1. Science and impacts of climate change
    • Satheesh C. Shenoi
    • Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS)
    • Ministry of Earth Sciences
    • Hyderabad – 500 055
    • [email_address]
    Centre for Science and Environment South Asian media briefing workshop on climate change 27-28 August 2009, India Habitat Centre, New Delhi
  • 2. Sea levels are rising worldwide and along much of the South Asian coast. (IPCC, 2007). Tide gauge measurements and satellite altimetry suggest that sea level has risen worldwide approximately 4.8-8.8 inches (12-22 cm) during the last century (IPCC, 2007). A significant amount of sea level rise has likely resulted from the observed warming of the atmosphere and the oceans. Annual averages of global mean sea level
    • Reconstructed
    • Sea level (red)
    • (Church, White)
    • TG Measured
    • Since 1950 (blue)
    • Altimetry (black)
  • 3.  
  • 4. Sea Level Trend Shoreline Change Rate Long Term Sea Level Data from tide gauges Satellite and Secondary data DEM data Return periods (T) Extreme water level (H max ) Future Sea Level after T (A) Future Shoreline after T (B) Contours Multi-hazard Line=A>B>C Contour of H max (C) Methodology for multi-hazard coastal vulnerability Multi-hazard Map
  • 5. Illustration of Methodology
    • Parameters Considered
    • Shoreline change (Landsat data 1972-2000)
    • Probability of extreme water level in a return period (Observed Tide data)
    • Contours (ALTM & Carto-DTM)
    20m 5m 10m Coastline in 1950 Coastline in 2005 Predicted erosion in 100 yrs Predicted 100 year flood level Composite 100 year hazard line
  • 6. Mean-sea-level-rise trends along the north Indian Ocean coasts from past tide-gauge records Estimated trends vary from 1.06 to 1.75 mm/year for individual records (an average of 1.30 mm/year) Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007) Net sea-level-rise trends 5.74 -0.52 5.22 55 Diamond Harbour 1.09 -0.39 0.70 53 Vishakhaptnam 1.75 -0.44 1.31 54 Kochi 1.20 -0.43 0.77 113 Mumbai 1.06 -0.45 0.61 44 Karachi 1.37 -0.16 1.21 58 Aden Net sea level rise (mm/yr) GIA (mm/yr) Trends (mm/yr) No of years Station
  • 7. Return period of the extreme water levels Gringorten distribution technique p Extreme value distribution Calculation of the reduced variate y = - loge (-loge p)
    • 1.94-1.55 meters of extreme water level for the return period of 100 years
    • 2 meter has been considered for the current study
  • 8. Calculation of Shoreline Change Rate (1972-2000)
  • 9. Landward Shoreline after 100 year
  • 10. Multi-hazard Map of Cuddalore Area
  • 11. Composite Multi-hazard line overlaid on the Google Earth
  • 12. Zoomed area of the Cuddalore Town
  • 13. Multi-hazard vulnerability map of Nellore district, Andhra Pradesh * 236 villages are under the multi-hazard line
  • 14. Srinivasa Kumar T, Mahendra R S, Shailesh Nayak, Radhakrishnan K R and Sahu K C, “ Coastal Vulnerability Assessment for Orissa Coast”, 2009, Journal of Coastal Research, Accepted Coastal Vulnerability Index for the Orissa Coast S. No Parameter Length (km) Low Medium High 1 Shoreline change rate 231 194 55 2 Significant wave height 0 480 0 3 Sea-level change rate 23 166 292 4 Tidal range 141 302 37 5 Coastal regional elevation 91 182 207 6 Coastal slope 10 41 429 7 Tsunami run-up 31 327 121 8 Coastal geomorphology 39 74 367 9 CVI 76 297 107
  • 15. 0.8 ° C 0.4 ° C Source- http://worldviewofglobalwarming.org
  • 16. 8 0 ppm of CO2 concentration due to human contributions ! 7.7 ° F 300 ppm 380 ppm Major polluters ?
  • 17.