Is Delhi losing the pollution battle?

Slide 1: Is Delhi losing the pollution battle? Centre for Science and Environment Press conference New Delhi, November 6, 2007 1

Slide 2: Ten years ago…. 2

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Slide 5: 2000-04: Delhi made the first quantum leap On fuel quality Introduced low sulphur fuels and petrol with 1 per cent benzene Mandated pre-mix petrol to two- and three-wheelers On vehicle technology Enforced Bharat stage II emissions standards in 2000, five years ahead of schedule (BS III in 2005) On alternative fuels Implemented largest ever CNG programme Largest ever public transport bus fleet on natural gas Other cross cutting policy measures Capped the number of three-wheelers Phased out 15 year old commercial vehicles Strengthened vehicle inspection programme (PUC) Efforts made to bypass transit traffic 5 Set up independent fuel testing laboratories to check fuel adulteration

Slide 6: It made a difference…avoided huge amount of pollution PM10 at ITO Traffic Intersection P M 10 tre nd pro je c tio n p re P M 10 tre nd P o s t S up re m e C o u rt dire c tio ns S up re m e C o u rt dire c tio ns 600 500 Microgramme per cubic metre 400 300 200 100 0 6

Slide 7: Ominous signs…. 7

Slide 8: Winter of 2007. Its smog. Still air, dust, smoke, low visibility…lungs are choked again… Daily average levels Monitoring at ITO, Delhi (Aug to October 2007) 338.1 PM2.5 NO2 SO2 340 310 280 250 240.5 microgram/cubic metre 220 190 160 130 100 70 40 10 Aug 07 - Oct 07 8 Source: Teri

Slide 9: Winter Woes ITO (monthly average of PM10 and NO2 in winter months of Sept to Feb during 1998-2006) 50 0 N O2 RS P M 45 0 4 12 40 0 36 6 3 54 33 5 33 8 3 42 32 0 35 0 30 0 2 68 25 0 20 0 15 0 10 0 50 0 19 9 9-00 20 00 -01 2 0 01-02 2 0 02 -0 3 2 00 3 -0 4 2 00 4-0 5 20 0 5-0 6 2 00 6 -0 7 9 Source: Teri

Slide 10: Deadly particles: After a short respite the curve turns upward RSPM 180 microgram/ cubic metre 2002 120 2003 2004 2005 60 2006 0 Res. Areas Ind. Areas 10 Source: Teri

Slide 11: NOx levels: rising steadily NOx NAAQS (R) 60 microgram per cubicmetre 50 1998 microgram/ cubic metre 1999 40 2000 30 2001 2002 20 2003 10 2004 2005 0 2006 Res. Areas Ind. Areas 11 Source: Teri

Slide 12: Health burden • Pollution level of 1991-92: World Bank estimated 7,491 premature deaths in Delhi. • As PM10 drops between 1993 and 2002, World Bank estimates saving of 3,629 lives per year. • 2006-07: Levels are up again. We are yet to estimate the death toll today. It could be critically high. -- Even an increase of only 10 microgramme/cu m of PM2.5 leads to significant increases in health risks. High exposure increase hospitalisation for asthma, lung diseases, chronic bronchitis, heart damage and lung cancer. -- 65% of Delhites have impaired lung function (CNCI 2004) -- 26% of Delhiites have undergone chromosomal damage due to air pollution that can be precursor to cancer (CNCI study 2004-05) 12

Slide 13: Is Delhi running to stand still? 13

Slide 14: Uncontrolled vehicle numbers swamp change Three fold increase since 1991 Vehicle registrations 6.0 4.5 4.8 3.9 4.2 5.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.0 2.6 2.7 3.0 millions 2.4 3.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.0 0.0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2004 *fiscal year Delhi NO2 trend 50 60 45 50 40 microgram per cubic meter 35 40 No. of Veh. in lakhs 30 Vehicular growth correlates 25 30 strongly with rising NOx 20 20 15 levels 10 10 5 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Res. Areas Ind. Areas No. of Veh

Slide 15: Unsustainable: Phenomenal increase in daily registration of vehicles 2000-01 2005-06 1200 No of registered vehicles per day 994 963 1000 800 654 580 564 600 333 308 400 231 200 0 Cars Tw o w heelers Total private Total vehicles vehicles (private +commercial) 15 Source: Teri

Slide 16: Influx from outside Personal vehicles dominate incoming traffic. Daily influx of Traffic volum e count vehicles through 10 key 60,000 entry points. No. of vehicles (thousands) 50,000 Nizamuddin 40,000 bridge: nearly 80 per cent of 30,000 the traffic in the morning is from 20,000 outside. 10,000 In the evening 0 peak hour, 75% Badarpur Mehrauli to Gurgaon to Taj Palace Ghaziabad Kale Khan of vehicles in to Mehrauli Badarpur Taj Palace to Gurgaon to Kale to ITO are from Khan Ghaziabad outside Private vehicles Commercial vehicles 16

Slide 17: Choked….. Traffic volume exceeds the designed capacity of most of the capital’s key arterial roads. NH8 (Delhi-Gurgaon) is designed for a peak traffic volume of 160,000 vehicles by 2015. There are already 130,000 vehicles fighting for space! Crawling traffic in Delhi: Average vehicular speed drops from 20-27 km/hr in 1997 to only 15 km/hr in 2002. Other road Peak Actual Peak segments designed volume (PCU capacity (PCU per hour) in per hour) 2002 Dhaula Kuan to 8004 10726 Raja Garden B. S Gurudwara 10959 12493 to AIIMS AIIMS to Dhaula 10981 13617 Source: IL&FS 2004 as quoted in CDP Delhi Kuan

Slide 18: Pollution impact of congestion Vehicle Emissions vis-à-vis Speed 18

Slide 19: Dieselised Diesel cars, jeep and vans in Delhi 140000 120000 100000 Numbers 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Agency Red alert on diesel 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 exhaust US EPA (2002) Likely human carcinogen Diesel car Diesel Jeep Diesel Van CARB (1998) Toxic air contaminant 1999: Diesel cars only 2% of the new car HEI (1995) Potential to cause cancer sales in Delhi. NIOSH (1988) Potential occupational carcinogen 2007: Diesel cars are 30% of new car IARC (1989) Probable human sales carcinogen 2010: It is projected to be 50% of the WHO IPCS Probable human19 sales (1996) carcinogen

Slide 20: Diesel cars: license to pollute One diesel car emits as much NOx as 3 to 5 petrol cars. PM is several times higher Even at a conservative estimate, the total number of diesel cars presently in Delhi is equivalent to adding particulate emissions from nearly 30,000 diesel buses. 20

Slide 21: Diesel emissions: several times more toxic

Slide 22: CNG bus programme: Big gains PM 0.35 0.4 0.3 NOx emissions from Euro II gm/km 0.2 CNG bus: 1.2 times lower 0.1 0.0065 0 than diesel buses Euro II diesel bus on 500 Euro II CNG bus +three NOx ppm sulphur fuel + DOC way catalytic converter 6.24 6.5 6 5.35 PM emissions from Euro II CNG 5.5 gm/km bus: more than 50 times lower 5 than Euro II diesel buses 4.5 Euro II diesel bus on 500 Euro II CNG bus +three ppm sulphur fuel + DOC way catalytic converter Source: Teri 22

Slide 23: Buses still meet very high share of travel demand. But wrong policies discourage them 10 0 % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Lucknow Delhi Pune Chenna i Kolka ta Hyderaba d Ahmedaba d 5.6 9 3 50 0 0 0 6 B us C a r, Ta xi, two -wheelers Three-wheelers R ic 300000 5 2,90,431 2 50 0 0 0 4 200000 3 2 .3 9 150 0 0 0 Ta x p er Yet buses bear significantly vehic le-km 2 10 0 0 0 0 higher tax burden in India. Tax A nnua l 1 0 .4 4 50 0 0 0 correction can push a large ta x 30,521 0 0 number of two wheeler users 2,725 Two wheeler C a rs B us to buses 23 To ta l a nnua l ta x p er vehic le To ta l ta x p er vehic le-km

Slide 24: Solution: Public transport But progress very slow Public transport projects under implementation High capacity bus system – 100km Metro plan -- 245 km planned Purchase of new buses: Delhi fails to meet the target of 10,000 buses set by the Supreme Court. The city is short of roughly 4000 buses. Plans to buy 4500 new buses. 24

Slide 25: Need urgent aggressive measures Small steps cannot save lives Reinvent Mobility to reduce car usage Implement all the public transport projects on schedule Connect the satellite towns in the NCR with an effective public transport Implement strategies and tax policies to control numbers and usage of personal cars Technology roadmap Leapfrog emissions and fuel standards to Euro IV. Get clean diesel or restrict dieselisation 25