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Financial propagandamodelsolomo nov2012

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  • 1. Financial Propaganda Model in SoLoMo Era:Demand Creation and JournalismSoLoMo時代的金融宣傳模式: 製造需求與新聞學 Thomas Hu 胡一天 November 2012
  • 2. Table of Contents 目錄§  Demand Creation in SoLoMo Era§  Anatomy of Financial Propaganda Model§  Big Data and Propaganda Model§  Trust and Uncertainty§  Implications for Journalism
  • 3. “Supply creates its own demand.” ~ John Maynard KeynesDemand Creation in SoLoMo EraSoLoMo時代如何製造需求
  • 4. Investment Vehicles To Play Mobility Trend: We have identified vehicles (Google, eBay, Amazon, and pure plays like Velti, etc) for in on mobility, in addition to a number of private companies in the spa Global Mobile Devices Already Outnumber PCs We estimate global smartphone shipments surpassed PC shipmen the early tipping point in what has become a massive consumer Social Media: New Focal Point ofimpacting all companies in our coverage universe. mobile space, Internet 社群媒體是互聯網的新焦點 Figure 31: PC and Smartphone Unit Shipments (mn) Figur SoLoMo風潮席捲全球 1,200 100§  90 1,000 WW smartphone 80§  2010年全球智能手機的銷量超越pc Unit Shipments (mn) shipments surpassed 70 800 PC shipments in 2010 60 600 50§  社群媒體佔據互聯網用戶16%的時間 40 400 30§  廣告與產品須打進Web 2.0消費者的心 200 20 10 0§  社群的信任與方便的通訊科技是關鍵 - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E PC Unit Shipments (DT + LT) Smartphone Unit Shipments§  無所不在的最終通路: Your Mind! Source: IDC and Deutsche Bank IT Hardware Team Source: ID Page 42
  • 5. SoLoMo e-Commerce: Not New in Financial Markets 金融市場對SoLoMo電子商務並不陌生§  NASADAQ早開B2B電子商務的先河 §  過去三十年資訊科技的演進降低交易費用但未改變交易本質 §  金融交易的本質是搜尋(search)與驗證(verification)買賣雙方的動態過程§  華爾街對資訊科技的投資不遺餘力 §  全球金融業的IT投資額於2012-15年上看三千八百億美元 §  歐美市場各佔三分之一,亞洲增長持續加速 §  全球投資銀行業的平均年營運固定成本上看四十億美元,IT開銷為大宗項目§  Why Spend So Much Money? §  Lehman Shock & Global Credit Crisis =>金融服務供應過剩而需求不振 §  華爾街證券化工廠需要不斷製造需求來維持規模經濟 => More Deals, Less Capital §  病毒行銷、行為預測、網絡成癮 => Similarity between Wall Street & e-commerce platform
  • 6. “The mass media are interested in attracting audiences with buying power, not audiences per se.” ~ Noam ChomskyAnatomy of Financial Propaganda Model剖析金融宣傳模式
  • 7. Socialize, Localize, Mobilize 拉攏,融入,動員§  1988年杭士基(Noam Chomsky)提出宣傳模式(propaganda model)以解釋: §  新聞媒體在灌輸與鞏固政經意識型態的關鍵角色 §  媒體的所有權與資金來源導致統治精英製造公眾同意(manufactured consent)§  華爾街的金融宣傳模式: §  研究與投行業務間的Chinese Wall => biased and vulnerable §  業務第一、真相不重要 => “Customers have very short memory” §  獨立分析團隊創造價值 (Meredith Whitney, Muddy Water…) => Sustainable?§  Why Financial SoLoMo? §  Socialize to gain trust => user stickiness §  Localize to frame focus and eliminate choices => targeted marketing §  Mobilize herd mentality and create concerted collective response => fast sell-through
  • 8. How Buy-side and Sell-side Interact in Financial Markets? 買賣雙方如何在金融市場互動?§  實例: Tommy於一間管理一百億美元的紐約對沖基金擔任資深分析師 §  一日之計在於晨 => 透過智能手機與平板大量閱讀 §  高度整合的互動科技 => 即時網聊、即時新聞、即時反應 §  量身訂製的資訊傳播 => thematic strategy, road show, conference call, live broadcast etc. §  Social network => 斛杯交錯間,買賣決定時 §  電子交易平台打造金融博奕新戰場§  金融宣傳模式的特質 §  Contextual => 動聽的故事製造協同行為 §  Pervasive => 針對使用者注意力的飽和攻擊 §  Reflexive => 建構在市場偏見與預期正回饋循環上的反射理論(George Soros) §  Individual => 巨量市場資訊與分析可以精準標定用戶偏好與預期行為 §  Social => 金融交易是在賭心思、人類機械交相賊§  WHY DOES IT STILL WORK IF EVERYONE KNOWS HOW IT WORKS?
  • 9. “It is not who I am underneath, but what I do that defines me.” ~ Batman/Bruce WayneBig Data and Propaganda Model巨量資訊與宣傳模式
  • 10. Big Data Analytics Enhance Propaganda 巨量資訊強化宣傳§  資料庫科技的創新從不停息 §  規模、速度、容錯 §  75%的數位資訊來自個人 => 愈來愈多的資訊來自人類自發的創作分享與喃喃自語 §  Facebook, Twitter, YouTube上的用戶資訊分散、龐雜且成指數式增長 §  Big Data => 針對巨量資訊的分析是Web 2.0的新顯學§  Collective Intelligence §  集體智慧與群眾心理 §  金融市場的群性 => Futures market as price discovery mechanism §  社群網絡上的朋友數量與大腦灰皮質的容量正相關 => better stock picker? §  Algorithmic trading and e-commerce market microstructure§  巨量資訊與宣傳模式 §  How Target figured out a teenage girl was pregnant before her father did? §  Consumer protection and privacy: an Orwellian luxury?§  TRUST NO ONE?
  • 11. “There are known knowns; There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; But there are also unknown unknowns. The ones we don’t know we don’t know.” ~ Donald RumsfieldTrust and Uncertainty信任與不確定
  • 12. Social Media Create New Layer of Trust Infrastructure 社群媒體形塑新的信用基礎§  資本主義市場經濟是用合約結成的網絡 §  看不見的手 => 信用 §  信用風險是市場波動的本源 => 資訊不對稱、不確定、不可測 §  社會信用基礎建設(Social Trust Infrastructure) => 法院(laws))、銀行(money)、媒體(news) §  金融危機與信任危機 => fear, greed, animal spirit and market mania§  社群網絡形塑新的信用基礎建設 §  Facebook用戶破十億人 => The Birth of A Nation? §  消費者信用服務 => 信用評等與行為預測 §  Facebook Credits => 新型態的貨幣?§  金融化的社群網絡平台與宣傳模式 §  ARE WE READY YET? §  WHAT IS TRUE? §  WHOM TO TRUST?
  • 13. “History isn’t written by logic.” ~ Oriana FallaciImplications for Journalism對新聞學的指涉
  • 14. Crownless King Without Clothes 沒有新衣的無冕王§  曾幾何時,新聞媒體從業人員是受人尊敬的專業 §  沒有網絡的時代,記者決定閱聽大眾如何思考 §  社群網絡的時代,只要有心,人人都能當記者 §  Information is almost free but good judgment is priceless => So What?§  新聞記者的存在意義(rasion d’etre)為何? §  Journalist or Propagandist? §  Still relevant when Google is omnipresent and omniscient? §  Public suspicion when independent journalism is financially struggling? §  Information Tribalism and Institutional mistrust? §  Active promoter or astute spectator?§  人類對抗暴政就是記憶與遺忘的鬥爭 => SoLoMo Journalist and New Responsibility §  Sober Thinker §  Loud Speaker §  Motivated Fighter
  • 15. Questions & Answers問與答